3 days ago
In Part 1 of our 32 bets for 32 teams ahead of the NFL season, we went up and down the AFC, looking for value in both the team futures and the player prop market; contemplating the statistical ceiling for some, and breaking down why others might not meet expectations.
For Part 2, our attention turns to the NFC. Here is my favorite bet for all 16 teams:
Last season, we could feel positive statistical regression coming for Trey McBride touchdowns, as he was lined at 4.5 after a 2024 season where he scored just twice on 111 receptions.
McBride scored 11 times.
The market's done a better job adjusting to McBride than NFL defenses have, lining him at 6.5 touchdowns this season, but the Cardinals do have more red zone options this season. As a model of consistency with between five and 12 receptions in all but one game in 2025, and wanting to have a piece of McBride in some way, we'll bet on him to hit 100 receptions for a third straight season.
#teams #down #touchdowns
For Part 2, our attention turns to the NFC. Here is my favorite bet for all 16 teams:
Last season, we could feel positive statistical regression coming for Trey McBride touchdowns, as he was lined at 4.5 after a 2024 season where he scored just twice on 111 receptions.
McBride scored 11 times.
The market's done a better job adjusting to McBride than NFL defenses have, lining him at 6.5 touchdowns this season, but the Cardinals do have more red zone options this season. As a model of consistency with between five and 12 receptions in all but one game in 2025, and wanting to have a piece of McBride in some way, we'll bet on him to hit 100 receptions for a third straight season.
#teams #down #touchdowns
4 days ago
Deion Sanders' buyout details: Here's how much it will cost Colorado to fire head coach originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
By all accounts, Colorado coach Deion Sanders is entering 2026 in a much better position than 2025.
Sanders battled health issues, including bladder cancer, throughout the 2025 offseason, and he went into the year with an unsettled quarterback situation for the first time in his tenure with the Buffaloes. The results were predictable: a regression to 3-9, putting Colorado near the bottom of the Big 12.
With those health issues improved and the hope that Julian Lewis is ready to take the next step at quarterback, Sanders is facing a critical season to get Colorado back on track. If not, his job status could come into question.
Here's a look at Sanders' buyout and what it would cost Colorado to fire him in 2026.
#buyout #cost
By all accounts, Colorado coach Deion Sanders is entering 2026 in a much better position than 2025.
Sanders battled health issues, including bladder cancer, throughout the 2025 offseason, and he went into the year with an unsettled quarterback situation for the first time in his tenure with the Buffaloes. The results were predictable: a regression to 3-9, putting Colorado near the bottom of the Big 12.
With those health issues improved and the hope that Julian Lewis is ready to take the next step at quarterback, Sanders is facing a critical season to get Colorado back on track. If not, his job status could come into question.
Here's a look at Sanders' buyout and what it would cost Colorado to fire him in 2026.
#buyout #cost
4 days ago
Quinn Ewers went from looking like a potential answer in the Miami Dolphins to becoming one of the biggest quarterback mysteries of the Dolphins' offseason. The former Texas standout flashed enough during OTAs to make a starting push seem plausible. Then training camp arrived, and the picture changed fast.
His decision-making dipped. The consistency disappeared. Suddenly, the same QB who looked aggressive and decisive in the spring was struggling to keep his footing in the summer. That sharp regression had Omar Kelly wondering how Ewers' camp fell apart so quickly.
Oct 26, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Quinn Ewers (14) on the field before the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Kelly raised the issue on September 2, calling Ewers' regression one of the biggest mysteries of the Dolphins 2026 training camp. The bigger surprise was not simply that Ewers struggled but was how different he looked from the quarterback who had impressed during the offseason program.
Quinn Ewers regression was one of the biggest mysteries of this 2026 training camp. A QB who looked like he should be competing for a starting role in OTAs (quick decisions, bold throws) look lost and was inconsistent in camp.
#camp #regression
His decision-making dipped. The consistency disappeared. Suddenly, the same QB who looked aggressive and decisive in the spring was struggling to keep his footing in the summer. That sharp regression had Omar Kelly wondering how Ewers' camp fell apart so quickly.
Oct 26, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Quinn Ewers (14) on the field before the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Kelly raised the issue on September 2, calling Ewers' regression one of the biggest mysteries of the Dolphins 2026 training camp. The bigger surprise was not simply that Ewers struggled but was how different he looked from the quarterback who had impressed during the offseason program.
Quinn Ewers regression was one of the biggest mysteries of this 2026 training camp. A QB who looked like he should be competing for a starting role in OTAs (quick decisions, bold throws) look lost and was inconsistent in camp.
#camp #regression
11 days ago
Braves might have a major lineup problem that could end their season originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Atlanta Braves just had a brutal stretch of games where they allowed the Philadelphia Phillies to make up significant ground in the NL East.
Heading into games on Wednesday, August 26, the Braves were just 4.5 games up on the Phillies. With a month to go and seven games against the Phillies, that's plenty of time for the Braves to lose their lead.
If that were to happen, it might not be due to the starting rotation, as many fans would believe after the trade deadline. Instead, as Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller highlighted, it could be their lineup, with "too many holes," that causes the team's regression.
"Atlanta Braves: Too Many Holes in the Lineup," Miller writes. "During the 45-21 start to the season, the Braves offense was relentless, averaging 5.2 runs per game. But since then, Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and especially Dominic Smith have all regressed, while 'Atlanta shortstop' has remained a season-long disaster."
#sporting
The Atlanta Braves just had a brutal stretch of games where they allowed the Philadelphia Phillies to make up significant ground in the NL East.
Heading into games on Wednesday, August 26, the Braves were just 4.5 games up on the Phillies. With a month to go and seven games against the Phillies, that's plenty of time for the Braves to lose their lead.
If that were to happen, it might not be due to the starting rotation, as many fans would believe after the trade deadline. Instead, as Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller highlighted, it could be their lineup, with "too many holes," that causes the team's regression.
"Atlanta Braves: Too Many Holes in the Lineup," Miller writes. "During the 45-21 start to the season, the Braves offense was relentless, averaging 5.2 runs per game. But since then, Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and especially Dominic Smith have all regressed, while 'Atlanta shortstop' has remained a season-long disaster."
#sporting
13 days ago
Philadelphia Eagles fans are finally starting to see just why Howie Roseman selected wide receiver Makai Lemon in the first round.
It has not been a straightforward offseason for the wide receiver out of USC, having suffered a hamstring injury earlier in camp.
The addition of Lemon came amid the departure of A.J. Brown, who finally left the Eagles in a significant trade to join the New England Patriots.
Although Brown had seen some regression in his stats over the last two seasons, he is still a big-time player who needed replacing in Philly.
DeVonta Smith will naturally be WR1 this season, but a lot of expectation will be placed on Lemon after the Eagles used their 20 overall pick on him earlier this year.
#Eagles #earlier
It has not been a straightforward offseason for the wide receiver out of USC, having suffered a hamstring injury earlier in camp.
The addition of Lemon came amid the departure of A.J. Brown, who finally left the Eagles in a significant trade to join the New England Patriots.
Although Brown had seen some regression in his stats over the last two seasons, he is still a big-time player who needed replacing in Philly.
DeVonta Smith will naturally be WR1 this season, but a lot of expectation will be placed on Lemon after the Eagles used their 20 overall pick on him earlier this year.
#Eagles #earlier
15 days ago
The Baltimore Ravens are about to kick off their second preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings. Here are some last-minute predictions from Baltimore Beatdown's staff!
Offensively, I'd anticipate you see the Ravens continue feeding the rookie tight ends plenty. Hibner had the hot hand with plenty of targets last week, so Cuevas may draw more targets this week. Adam Randall seemed to heat up more as his game progressed as well, so look to see him more confident out of the backfield. Baltimore's defense didn't force a turnover against Philly, but I think that changes in this one. JJ McCarthy knows he's got a lot to prove for his NFL future as he settles into the backup role, and I think he gets over-aggressive and air mails one or two that the secondary takes away. I'll call my shot and say Keyon Martin stays hot and gets one.
Baltimore's O-line had a rough outing in joint practices against the pressure looks brought by Brian Flores and this Viking defense. Expect to see a bit of a regression from ***** nano and Reed as they feel the heat. There's such a degree of randomness to preseason that it's tough to predict a score, but I think Minnesota's pressure wins them the turnover battle and the game. MIN 27, BAL 20 – Kevin McNelis
I foresee an ugly, defensive game from both teams today. I predict another big day for the Ravens' secondary in particular, while I think Baltimore's offense will struggle against the relentless blitzing from Brian Flores. Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt will be the stars on offense when pass protection holds up. I think we will see more pressure from Jesse Minter's defense this week as well. – Dustin *****
The biggest thing to watch in this game is the offensive line. While there are some other positions battles such as the 5th edge players, cornerback depth spots, there are a ton of questions to answer on the line. The most obvious being the center battle. With Danny Pinter going down, is it Gwyn or Pocic who runs with the 1s? How much time does Gwyn, who's already looked great but is inexperienced, get versus Pocic, who need ramp up time? We also need to see improvement from Andrew Vorhees and Emery Jones Jr. after awful showings last week. Corey Bullock will get center reps with Pinter down but could absolutely steal a backup guard spot. Gerad Lichtenhan also looked better than both of those guys last week. – Zach Canter
#game #Ravens #baltimore
Offensively, I'd anticipate you see the Ravens continue feeding the rookie tight ends plenty. Hibner had the hot hand with plenty of targets last week, so Cuevas may draw more targets this week. Adam Randall seemed to heat up more as his game progressed as well, so look to see him more confident out of the backfield. Baltimore's defense didn't force a turnover against Philly, but I think that changes in this one. JJ McCarthy knows he's got a lot to prove for his NFL future as he settles into the backup role, and I think he gets over-aggressive and air mails one or two that the secondary takes away. I'll call my shot and say Keyon Martin stays hot and gets one.
Baltimore's O-line had a rough outing in joint practices against the pressure looks brought by Brian Flores and this Viking defense. Expect to see a bit of a regression from ***** nano and Reed as they feel the heat. There's such a degree of randomness to preseason that it's tough to predict a score, but I think Minnesota's pressure wins them the turnover battle and the game. MIN 27, BAL 20 – Kevin McNelis
I foresee an ugly, defensive game from both teams today. I predict another big day for the Ravens' secondary in particular, while I think Baltimore's offense will struggle against the relentless blitzing from Brian Flores. Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt will be the stars on offense when pass protection holds up. I think we will see more pressure from Jesse Minter's defense this week as well. – Dustin *****
The biggest thing to watch in this game is the offensive line. While there are some other positions battles such as the 5th edge players, cornerback depth spots, there are a ton of questions to answer on the line. The most obvious being the center battle. With Danny Pinter going down, is it Gwyn or Pocic who runs with the 1s? How much time does Gwyn, who's already looked great but is inexperienced, get versus Pocic, who need ramp up time? We also need to see improvement from Andrew Vorhees and Emery Jones Jr. after awful showings last week. Corey Bullock will get center reps with Pinter down but could absolutely steal a backup guard spot. Gerad Lichtenhan also looked better than both of those guys last week. – Zach Canter
#game #Ravens #baltimore
21 days ago
Mariners' Cal Raleigh on track to set dubious never-before-seen MLB history originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Seattle Mariners are having a brutal 2026 season so far. They really should be atop the AL West but have been in a free fall lately, dropping 21 of their last 32 games, and now sit at 58-66.
A lot has gone wrong this season, and if there were one major issue for this team that's been a reason for the struggles, it would be Cal Raleigh's regression. Unfortunately, it's a record-breaking regression from Raleigh.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale highlighted how Raleigh is on track to make some dubious never-before-seen MLB history, as he can smash the record for fewest homers hit in a season after clobbering 60.
"There have been 10 instances in which a player hit at least 60 homers in a season," Nightengale writes. "No one has hit fewer than 32 the following season. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has 12, while hitting .158."
#track #never
The Seattle Mariners are having a brutal 2026 season so far. They really should be atop the AL West but have been in a free fall lately, dropping 21 of their last 32 games, and now sit at 58-66.
A lot has gone wrong this season, and if there were one major issue for this team that's been a reason for the struggles, it would be Cal Raleigh's regression. Unfortunately, it's a record-breaking regression from Raleigh.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale highlighted how Raleigh is on track to make some dubious never-before-seen MLB history, as he can smash the record for fewest homers hit in a season after clobbering 60.
"There have been 10 instances in which a player hit at least 60 homers in a season," Nightengale writes. "No one has hit fewer than 32 the following season. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has 12, while hitting .158."
#track #never
22 days ago
Spencer Rattler didn't exactly make the most of his opportunity to start Saturday's preseason opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The New Orleans Saints quarterback showed many of the same flaws that got him benched last season -- a too-conservative attack that neglected the deeper reaches of the field and poor decision-making from the pocket. Every quarterback struggles under pressure. But Rattler's baseline might be lower than others. What we saw on Saturday afternoon was a regression from his performance at training camp this summer.
All told, Rattler went 8-of-11 for 42 yards before the Saints pulled him out of the lineup. He was also sacked twice for a loss of 16 yards. Averaging just 3.8 yards per pass attempt is a problem in itself (last year's NFL average was 7.0, with Rattler ranking 31st at 6.2). But his lowest moment came when he didn't even throw the ball. After being set up deep in his own territory because of a special teams penalty, Rattler floundered under pressure and fumbled the ball away on 1st and 10. He explained what he was thinking after the game.
"Trying to get out of some pressure, probably (should have) just tried to dirt it or go down, and go on to the next play," Rattler told reporters in his postgame press conference. The Saints defense managed to get a stop and force Jacksonville into settling for a short-range field goal.
This was a turnover, but it wasn't Rattler's only mistake on the day. Facing 2nd and 10 from the Jaguars' 25-yard line, Rattler checked down to running back Audric Estime without any hope of turning upfield to make a play. Estime was tackled low as soon as he caught the ball, losing six yards and suffering an injury in the process. Rattler's next pass on 3rd and 16 fell incomplete. He would have done better to throw the ball out of bounds on second down to give himself a better chance. This was a problem for him last season, too.
"Definitely a lot of stuff to improve on after a preseason Game 1," Rattler added, "Just got to keep getting better, as a group."
#yards #ball #last #pressure
All told, Rattler went 8-of-11 for 42 yards before the Saints pulled him out of the lineup. He was also sacked twice for a loss of 16 yards. Averaging just 3.8 yards per pass attempt is a problem in itself (last year's NFL average was 7.0, with Rattler ranking 31st at 6.2). But his lowest moment came when he didn't even throw the ball. After being set up deep in his own territory because of a special teams penalty, Rattler floundered under pressure and fumbled the ball away on 1st and 10. He explained what he was thinking after the game.
"Trying to get out of some pressure, probably (should have) just tried to dirt it or go down, and go on to the next play," Rattler told reporters in his postgame press conference. The Saints defense managed to get a stop and force Jacksonville into settling for a short-range field goal.
This was a turnover, but it wasn't Rattler's only mistake on the day. Facing 2nd and 10 from the Jaguars' 25-yard line, Rattler checked down to running back Audric Estime without any hope of turning upfield to make a play. Estime was tackled low as soon as he caught the ball, losing six yards and suffering an injury in the process. Rattler's next pass on 3rd and 16 fell incomplete. He would have done better to throw the ball out of bounds on second down to give himself a better chance. This was a problem for him last season, too.
"Definitely a lot of stuff to improve on after a preseason Game 1," Rattler added, "Just got to keep getting better, as a group."
#yards #ball #last #pressure
25 days ago
The Seattle Mariners have not lived up to expectations this season, and their five-game losing streak has them four games out of a wild card spot.
The Mariners have a minus-22 run differential this year. Last season they won the third most games in the American League and had a plus-72 run differential. Cal Raleigh had an MVP-caliber season last year, hitting 60 home runs and notching 125 RBIs. This year has been very different.
He has a .564 OPS and just 12 home runs. A regression from Raleigh was very likely, buit no body expected one of the best hitters in baseball to fade into irrelevance. He is wearing a lot of the balme for the team's struggles.
"We're not playing well, that starts with me — I'm awful," Raleigh said on Tuesday, per The Athletic's Tyler Kepner. "So it is what it is. I've got to find a way to be better and to help bring the guys along, and we've just got to play better.
Looking for the perfect gift for a baseball player in your life? Check out our brand new baseball lifestyle brand!
#Mariners #last #differential
The Mariners have a minus-22 run differential this year. Last season they won the third most games in the American League and had a plus-72 run differential. Cal Raleigh had an MVP-caliber season last year, hitting 60 home runs and notching 125 RBIs. This year has been very different.
He has a .564 OPS and just 12 home runs. A regression from Raleigh was very likely, buit no body expected one of the best hitters in baseball to fade into irrelevance. He is wearing a lot of the balme for the team's struggles.
"We're not playing well, that starts with me — I'm awful," Raleigh said on Tuesday, per The Athletic's Tyler Kepner. "So it is what it is. I've got to find a way to be better and to help bring the guys along, and we've just got to play better.
Looking for the perfect gift for a baseball player in your life? Check out our brand new baseball lifestyle brand!
#Mariners #last #differential
29 days ago
Eagles OC reveals Tush Push plans amid new-look offense for 2026 originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Philadelphia Eagles have a new offensive coordinator in former NFL quarterback Sean Mannion after firing Kevin Patullo after a disastrous 2025 season.
Part of the problem for the Eagles wasn't just the stagnant passing game or brutal run game; it was the regression of the "Tush Push" play. It just didn't work as it did before last year, running well below the success rate of prior seasons.
So, with a new offensive coordinator, there have been some questions about whether the play would return or not. Well, according to Tim McManus of ESPN, the Eagles' new OC revealed his plans: the Tush Push isn't going anywhere.
"Eagles OC Sean Mannion said the Tush Push will be part of the offense," McManus reports. "Not going away in the new system."
#Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have a new offensive coordinator in former NFL quarterback Sean Mannion after firing Kevin Patullo after a disastrous 2025 season.
Part of the problem for the Eagles wasn't just the stagnant passing game or brutal run game; it was the regression of the "Tush Push" play. It just didn't work as it did before last year, running well below the success rate of prior seasons.
So, with a new offensive coordinator, there have been some questions about whether the play would return or not. Well, according to Tim McManus of ESPN, the Eagles' new OC revealed his plans: the Tush Push isn't going anywhere.
"Eagles OC Sean Mannion said the Tush Push will be part of the offense," McManus reports. "Not going away in the new system."
#Eagles
29 days ago
The Chicago Bears are coming off an impressive first season with head coach Ben Johnson, who led them from worst to first with an 11-6 record, an NFC North championship and the franchise's first playoff win in nearly two decades.
There some who have Chicago pegged for regression in 2026, due to their difficult strength of schedule and playing in a competitive division. But USA Today's Nate Davis is not one of them. In fact, Davis predicts the Bears will repeat as NFC North champions with a 12-5 record, earning the No. 2 seed once again and falling to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC divisional playoffs.
Regression is certainly possible given their reliance on a league-high 33 takeaways during last year's magic carpet ride … plenty of that magic rubbing off on QB Caleb Williams' right arm in the most high-leverage situations. The reigning division champs have also drawn the league's most difficult schedule based on their opponents' collective winning percentage in 2025 (.550). Yet overall progression in Year 2 under HC Ben Johnson is just as likely, ******* uming Williams and Co. continue to master an offense which spotlights a daunting run game and should get more from a diverse and talented group of pass catchers – perhaps enough to finally make Williams' the 106-year-old franchise's first 4,000-yard passer after he fell 58 yards short of the mark in 2025. Playing three of the first four games at Soldier Field should help.
While regression is certainly possible, as Davis notes, there's also a good chance of improvement after a full year with players in Johnson's offense, young talent and with players returning from injury across the roster that the Bears will make an even stronger impression.
Follow Bears Wire on Twitter, Facebookand Instagram
#first
There some who have Chicago pegged for regression in 2026, due to their difficult strength of schedule and playing in a competitive division. But USA Today's Nate Davis is not one of them. In fact, Davis predicts the Bears will repeat as NFC North champions with a 12-5 record, earning the No. 2 seed once again and falling to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC divisional playoffs.
Regression is certainly possible given their reliance on a league-high 33 takeaways during last year's magic carpet ride … plenty of that magic rubbing off on QB Caleb Williams' right arm in the most high-leverage situations. The reigning division champs have also drawn the league's most difficult schedule based on their opponents' collective winning percentage in 2025 (.550). Yet overall progression in Year 2 under HC Ben Johnson is just as likely, ******* uming Williams and Co. continue to master an offense which spotlights a daunting run game and should get more from a diverse and talented group of pass catchers – perhaps enough to finally make Williams' the 106-year-old franchise's first 4,000-yard passer after he fell 58 yards short of the mark in 2025. Playing three of the first four games at Soldier Field should help.
While regression is certainly possible, as Davis notes, there's also a good chance of improvement after a full year with players in Johnson's offense, young talent and with players returning from injury across the roster that the Bears will make an even stronger impression.
Follow Bears Wire on Twitter, Facebookand Instagram
#first
1 month ago
Fans of the Pittsburgh Steelers saw T.J. Watt take a few steps back last season. Well, the rest of the NFL apparently saw his regression, too.
On Friday, Watt was revealed as No. 41 in the peer-voted NFL Top 100 Players of 2026, falling 30 spots from his No. 11 placement in 2025.
In the hype video for the No. 41 selection, fellow NFL players complimented Watt's level of play, including guest speakers like Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, and Steelers teammate Alex Highsmith.
Watt didn't have the 2025 season he was hoping for after landing a historic $123 million extension with Pittsburgh, recording just seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss in 14 games.
Still, when healthy, Watt is capable of completely wrecking the game plan of opposing offenses and will be looking to turn back the clock in DC Patrick Graham's new defense.
#steelers #Friday
On Friday, Watt was revealed as No. 41 in the peer-voted NFL Top 100 Players of 2026, falling 30 spots from his No. 11 placement in 2025.
In the hype video for the No. 41 selection, fellow NFL players complimented Watt's level of play, including guest speakers like Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, and Steelers teammate Alex Highsmith.
Watt didn't have the 2025 season he was hoping for after landing a historic $123 million extension with Pittsburgh, recording just seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss in 14 games.
Still, when healthy, Watt is capable of completely wrecking the game plan of opposing offenses and will be looking to turn back the clock in DC Patrick Graham's new defense.
#steelers #Friday
1 month ago
The Oklahoma Sooners went 6-7 in 2022, the first year of the Brent Venables era. Then, OU went 10-3 in 2023. However, a regression in 2024 led to another 6-7 mark on the head coach's record. Then, the Sooners bounced back with another 10-3 season in 2025, making it to the College Football Playoff for the first time under Venables' watch.
As Oklahoma enters its third season in the SEC and its fifth season with Venables at the helm, the focus isn't just on avoiding regression again and breaking the pattern. The focus inside the Switzer Center is all about going from good to great in 2026.
To exceed what the program accomplished last season, OU will first need to navigate a very difficult SEC schedule to put themselves back in the CFP. The Sooners have learned the hard way that this league is much better and deeper than the Big 12.
Athlon Sports' Steve Lassan placed each of the 16 teams in the SEC into tiers ahead of this season. Out of his five total tiers, Lassan placed the Sooners in Tier 2, a grouping labeled "Playoff Contenders".
This tier showcases the depth of the SEC. Six teams outside of Georgia and Texas should be playoff contenders, including four — Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama — that earned a spot in the 12-team field last season ... Will Oklahoma's offense take a big step forward with a healthy John Mateer returning at quarterback?" - Steve Lassan, Athlon Sports.
#playoff
As Oklahoma enters its third season in the SEC and its fifth season with Venables at the helm, the focus isn't just on avoiding regression again and breaking the pattern. The focus inside the Switzer Center is all about going from good to great in 2026.
To exceed what the program accomplished last season, OU will first need to navigate a very difficult SEC schedule to put themselves back in the CFP. The Sooners have learned the hard way that this league is much better and deeper than the Big 12.
Athlon Sports' Steve Lassan placed each of the 16 teams in the SEC into tiers ahead of this season. Out of his five total tiers, Lassan placed the Sooners in Tier 2, a grouping labeled "Playoff Contenders".
This tier showcases the depth of the SEC. Six teams outside of Georgia and Texas should be playoff contenders, including four — Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama — that earned a spot in the 12-team field last season ... Will Oklahoma's offense take a big step forward with a healthy John Mateer returning at quarterback?" - Steve Lassan, Athlon Sports.
#playoff
1 month ago
It's been a bit of a janky week for Yankee baseball, with a pair of rain-induced doubleheaders and a scheduled offday in the past six. We return to what is hopefully normal programming today, with the Bombers coming into Philadelphia for a three-game set against the second-place Phillies.
It's Cam ****** p Day, as the ace Cam Schlittler looks to pull himself over the 4.0 fWAR mark if he can really strut on the Phils tonight. I've remarked a number of times this year how Cam will variate between "real good" and "meh" starts this year, with a handful of dominant performances and only one real stinker in the mix. His last outing was certainly in the "meh" column, as the Dodgers were able to chase him before the end of the fifth last Sunday.
I need to do the math on this, but it feels like because Cam throws so many pitches in the zone, he's most vulnerable against teams that make contact and offer at pitches in-zone. The Phillies boast the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball and the 10th-highest Z-Swing percentage, along with the 16th-best Z-Contact rate. To me that sounds like this should be a good matchup for Schlittler's game plan, but Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are still who they are.
Jesús Luzardo, who is still just 28 despite me feeling like I've heard his name for 15 years, goes for Philly. After a five-win season of his own last year, he's returned that pace and then some in 2026, making the All-Star team with a 3.43 ERA and 2.90 FIP, led by a sparkling ability to keep the ball in the park. The Yankees have managed to induce some immediate regression in other homer-suppressing pitchers this year, if they can manage that tonight they'll set themselves up well for a win.
Do note this game is on AppleTV+. I wish it were not.
#Baseball #real
It's Cam ****** p Day, as the ace Cam Schlittler looks to pull himself over the 4.0 fWAR mark if he can really strut on the Phils tonight. I've remarked a number of times this year how Cam will variate between "real good" and "meh" starts this year, with a handful of dominant performances and only one real stinker in the mix. His last outing was certainly in the "meh" column, as the Dodgers were able to chase him before the end of the fifth last Sunday.
I need to do the math on this, but it feels like because Cam throws so many pitches in the zone, he's most vulnerable against teams that make contact and offer at pitches in-zone. The Phillies boast the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball and the 10th-highest Z-Swing percentage, along with the 16th-best Z-Contact rate. To me that sounds like this should be a good matchup for Schlittler's game plan, but Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are still who they are.
Jesús Luzardo, who is still just 28 despite me feeling like I've heard his name for 15 years, goes for Philly. After a five-win season of his own last year, he's returned that pace and then some in 2026, making the All-Star team with a 3.43 ERA and 2.90 FIP, led by a sparkling ability to keep the ball in the park. The Yankees have managed to induce some immediate regression in other homer-suppressing pitchers this year, if they can manage that tonight they'll set themselves up well for a win.
Do note this game is on AppleTV+. I wish it were not.
#Baseball #real
1 month ago
According to ESPN's Ben Solak, the Indianapolis Colts won't realistically regain their 2025 first half form, citing starting quarterback Daniel Jones' uncertain health and the loss of a number of key veterans as the realistic reasons for the continued regression:
2026 outlook: Repeat of early '25 success seems unlikely
It's tough to expect anything close to a repeat performance from Jones in 2026, even before we consider the effect of the Achilles injury.
It's also worth noting that the Colts endured another offensive line departure (Braden Smith) and saw a key offensive weapon (Michael Pittman Jr.) leave the building to boot. Veteran defenders Nick Scott and Zaire Franklin both departed this offseason, leaving Day 2 rookies A.J. Haulcy and CJ Allen in line to fill their big shoes.
The sheer number of departures, along with uncertain health for Jones, makes them a tough horse to back in 2026. — Ben Solak
#jones #colts #uncertain #line
2026 outlook: Repeat of early '25 success seems unlikely
It's tough to expect anything close to a repeat performance from Jones in 2026, even before we consider the effect of the Achilles injury.
It's also worth noting that the Colts endured another offensive line departure (Braden Smith) and saw a key offensive weapon (Michael Pittman Jr.) leave the building to boot. Veteran defenders Nick Scott and Zaire Franklin both departed this offseason, leaving Day 2 rookies A.J. Haulcy and CJ Allen in line to fill their big shoes.
The sheer number of departures, along with uncertain health for Jones, makes them a tough horse to back in 2026. — Ben Solak
#jones #colts #uncertain #line
2 months ago
Mets get Francisco Lindor trade update that includes the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees and Braves originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
It would be crazy to see the New York Yankees ever make a move for Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets. However, the Mets have also made it known that they are more than willing to move on from certain players over the next few weeks. Whether that means they actually move a superstar like Lindor remains to be seen, but nothing has suggested they won't.
Right now, the Mets just have to shed some salary, and the Yankees could benefit from that. However, according to the latest from ESPN's Jeff Passan, there are many other teams who could be potential fits, including the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Atlanta Braves.
"Lindor is 32 and is off to a slower start this season, but most of that is hit luck as his expected wOBA last year and this year are almost identical; he is two points better this season. His raw tools aren't the selling point, either: His arm strength, sprint speed and bat speed are all average to below and have been for a couple of years.
"The ability to be good at everything while playing an elite shortstop has been the key to his career, and those things are still alive, even if a bit diminished so far this year. It's very likely we'll see positive regression from the rest of the season, and I'm not even worried about the next few years, but mapping his career out until 2031 is a different question altogether. Best fits: Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Braves," Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote.
#yankees #season
It would be crazy to see the New York Yankees ever make a move for Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets. However, the Mets have also made it known that they are more than willing to move on from certain players over the next few weeks. Whether that means they actually move a superstar like Lindor remains to be seen, but nothing has suggested they won't.
Right now, the Mets just have to shed some salary, and the Yankees could benefit from that. However, according to the latest from ESPN's Jeff Passan, there are many other teams who could be potential fits, including the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Atlanta Braves.
"Lindor is 32 and is off to a slower start this season, but most of that is hit luck as his expected wOBA last year and this year are almost identical; he is two points better this season. His raw tools aren't the selling point, either: His arm strength, sprint speed and bat speed are all average to below and have been for a couple of years.
"The ability to be good at everything while playing an elite shortstop has been the key to his career, and those things are still alive, even if a bit diminished so far this year. It's very likely we'll see positive regression from the rest of the season, and I'm not even worried about the next few years, but mapping his career out until 2031 is a different question altogether. Best fits: Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Braves," Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote.
#yankees #season
2 months ago
One way to find hitters who could bounce back in the second half is to look at expected metrics. Most expected batting average (xBA) formulas involve exit velocity. We want hitters to hit the ball hard. If hitters hit the ball hard and make enough contact, positive outcomes should occur. That’s a case where we want to trust a player’s skills instead of luck.
The visual below shows the hitters with the biggest gap in their xBA and actual BA. That suggests these hitters should have a better BA based on their skills.
We’ll take this a step further, looking at the hitters with the biggest expected wOBA difference in their actual wOBA, adding another layer to their profile. Unsurprisingly, some of the hitters with potential positive regression in their xBA also land on the list of xwOBA improvers, as seen below.
That said, let’s examine several hitters who could rebound in the second half based on the advanced metrics.
After hitting 20+ home runs and stealing double-digit bases in the two previous seasons, most of the projections have Nimmo under 20 home runs. The Mets' home park ranks 18th, with the Rangers at 17th in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed hitters in the three-year rolling average. That said, it’s a neutral change. However, the Rangers' home park ranks 12th and the Mets is 19th in Home Run Park Factor for left-handed hitters if we filter by this season.
The visual below shows the hitters with the biggest gap in their xBA and actual BA. That suggests these hitters should have a better BA based on their skills.
We’ll take this a step further, looking at the hitters with the biggest expected wOBA difference in their actual wOBA, adding another layer to their profile. Unsurprisingly, some of the hitters with potential positive regression in their xBA also land on the list of xwOBA improvers, as seen below.
That said, let’s examine several hitters who could rebound in the second half based on the advanced metrics.
After hitting 20+ home runs and stealing double-digit bases in the two previous seasons, most of the projections have Nimmo under 20 home runs. The Mets' home park ranks 18th, with the Rangers at 17th in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed hitters in the three-year rolling average. That said, it’s a neutral change. However, the Rangers' home park ranks 12th and the Mets is 19th in Home Run Park Factor for left-handed hitters if we filter by this season.
2 months ago
Before the release of ADPs four months ago, I discussed the 49ers’ biggest fantasy bargain, bust, and wild card. Where do things stand as we approach the first preseason games?
Give it up for Jordan James (RB64 ADP) and rookie Kaelon Black (RB68). One of these two guys will almost certainly be a significant bargain—much hinges on how they look these next few weeks. The rest hinges on whether Christian McCaffrey can stay on the field (more on that in a moment). Both youngsters have one college season of workhorse usage under their belts. In other words, either one presumably could carry the load if needed.
McCaffrey is a clear-cut bust based on historical data showing massive injury and/or regressions for 400+ touch RBs the following season. McCaffrey’s risks are compounded by the fact that he hit 450 touches and is now 30 years old -- oh, and that he suffered similar fates in his two other 400+ touch campaigns. In that far-reaching context, his RB3 ADP makes no sense.
Ricky Pearsall (RB45 ADP) is the biggest wild card. The former first-round pick could become Brock Purdy’s #1 target. He’s also just as likely to miss several games and/or struggle for consistency in a packed receiving corps. His outcome will affect the outcomes of Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Biggest 49ers fantasy bargain, bust, and wild card based on ADP
Give it up for Jordan James (RB64 ADP) and rookie Kaelon Black (RB68). One of these two guys will almost certainly be a significant bargain—much hinges on how they look these next few weeks. The rest hinges on whether Christian McCaffrey can stay on the field (more on that in a moment). Both youngsters have one college season of workhorse usage under their belts. In other words, either one presumably could carry the load if needed.
McCaffrey is a clear-cut bust based on historical data showing massive injury and/or regressions for 400+ touch RBs the following season. McCaffrey’s risks are compounded by the fact that he hit 450 touches and is now 30 years old -- oh, and that he suffered similar fates in his two other 400+ touch campaigns. In that far-reaching context, his RB3 ADP makes no sense.
Ricky Pearsall (RB45 ADP) is the biggest wild card. The former first-round pick could become Brock Purdy’s #1 target. He’s also just as likely to miss several games and/or struggle for consistency in a packed receiving corps. His outcome will affect the outcomes of Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Biggest 49ers fantasy bargain, bust, and wild card based on ADP
2 months ago
As ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler continues to reveal the results of his survey of NFL executives, coaches and scouts, the Kansas City Chiefs appear to be reaping the benefits of continual investment in the team’s offensive line.
In Fowler’s combined interior offensive lineman rankings, the first center listed (at third overall) was Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey. The placement actually marks a small regression for Humphrey, who topped Fowler’s positional rankings a year ago.
3. Creed Humphrey, C, Kansas City Chiefs
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 10
Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 1
Last year’s No. 1 interior offensive lineman still garnered several first-place votes but slipped slightly in the overall voting.
In Fowler’s combined interior offensive lineman rankings, the first center listed (at third overall) was Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey. The placement actually marks a small regression for Humphrey, who topped Fowler’s positional rankings a year ago.
3. Creed Humphrey, C, Kansas City Chiefs
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 10
Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 1
Last year’s No. 1 interior offensive lineman still garnered several first-place votes but slipped slightly in the overall voting.
2 months ago
Strange, but it felt like Dominick Puni broke out in his rookie year in 2024. Unfortunately, his 2025 saw a bit of a regression after a solid 2024 campaign. Blame it on a PCL injury in August, but that was just his first month.
Could the San Francisco 49ers' right guard be poised for a breakout? It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a player go from a decent rookie season to a step back in year 2 and then get it all together in year 3.
Over at NFL.com, Bucky Brooks put together an offensive all-breakout team of one player per position who he thought would have a significant rise in stock. Puni was the only 49er who made the list:
The 2024 third-round pick has started 36 consecutive games (postseason included) in an offense that relies on his punishing skills at the point of attack. As a mauler who specializes in moving defenders off the ball, Puni is an essential piece to the 49ers' dynamic running game. Although the heavy-handed shadow boxer must continue to improve in pass protection, San Francisco has a Pro Bowler in the making at right guard.
The final year of Puni's contract is 2027, so that gives him two more years to justify a lucrative extension. As KP said in the post linked above, New York Jets' Joe Tippmann is a good comparison of what kind of extension Puni could get right now—but Puni's actual numbers resemble Dallas Cowboys' Tyler Smith.
Could the San Francisco 49ers' right guard be poised for a breakout? It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a player go from a decent rookie season to a step back in year 2 and then get it all together in year 3.
Over at NFL.com, Bucky Brooks put together an offensive all-breakout team of one player per position who he thought would have a significant rise in stock. Puni was the only 49er who made the list:
The 2024 third-round pick has started 36 consecutive games (postseason included) in an offense that relies on his punishing skills at the point of attack. As a mauler who specializes in moving defenders off the ball, Puni is an essential piece to the 49ers' dynamic running game. Although the heavy-handed shadow boxer must continue to improve in pass protection, San Francisco has a Pro Bowler in the making at right guard.
The final year of Puni's contract is 2027, so that gives him two more years to justify a lucrative extension. As KP said in the post linked above, New York Jets' Joe Tippmann is a good comparison of what kind of extension Puni could get right now—but Puni's actual numbers resemble Dallas Cowboys' Tyler Smith.
2 months ago
As the month of July marches on, the first report dates for the Detroit Lions' 2026 training camp are now less than three weeks away.
With excitement building for the 2026 Lions campaign, CBS took a look at each franchise's top storyline heading into training camp.
CBS writes that the biggest training camp storyline for the Lions is the offensive line shuffle in front of quarterback Jared Goff.
This was a tight call between the offensive line and the health of safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Ultimately, the offensive line got the nod. All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell is switching to the left side after Taylor Decker's departure, and first-round pick Blake Miller is taking over at right tackle. Cade Mays is the new center and should add major size and power there, though this will be his first season as a full-time starter. Guards Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge must step up. - Zachary Pereles, CBS
The Lions' offensive line regression was one of the primary factors that contributed to Detroit's 9-8 record and fourth-place finish in the NFC North last season.
With excitement building for the 2026 Lions campaign, CBS took a look at each franchise's top storyline heading into training camp.
CBS writes that the biggest training camp storyline for the Lions is the offensive line shuffle in front of quarterback Jared Goff.
This was a tight call between the offensive line and the health of safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Ultimately, the offensive line got the nod. All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell is switching to the left side after Taylor Decker's departure, and first-round pick Blake Miller is taking over at right tackle. Cade Mays is the new center and should add major size and power there, though this will be his first season as a full-time starter. Guards Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge must step up. - Zachary Pereles, CBS
The Lions' offensive line regression was one of the primary factors that contributed to Detroit's 9-8 record and fourth-place finish in the NFC North last season.
2 months ago
For the last couple of years, I've used this outlier touchdowns column to spotlight fantasy players due for regression — positive or negative — in the upcoming season. Not to toot my own horn, but the 2025 running back edition was a rousing success. All three of the RBs due to score more in 2025 — D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne Jr. and Jaylen Warren — improved their touchdown totals ... and they combined for an increase of 22 scores year-over-year. Zach Charbonnet was the only real miss of the RBs due to score less, but James Cook saw a slight dip as predicted, and David Montgomery was a major fantasy bust after logging four fewer TDs.
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season
First, a quick crash course on the data. There is a consistent historical rate at which an average NFL player finds the end zone, relative to their opportunity. That rate can be more specifically dissected by field position to offer a more granular look at the data — unsurprisingly, a goal-to-go target has a much higher chance of producing a touchdown than a carry from midfield.
While these historical rates aren't necessarily the same thing as predictive probabilities, they are usually quite close over a decent sample. The following table lists a bird’s-eye view of the touchdown rates for all running back opportunities (carries and targets) over the last 10 seasons, with field positions aggregated for simplicity.
RB TD Rates by Field Position (Last 10 Seasons):
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season
First, a quick crash course on the data. There is a consistent historical rate at which an average NFL player finds the end zone, relative to their opportunity. That rate can be more specifically dissected by field position to offer a more granular look at the data — unsurprisingly, a goal-to-go target has a much higher chance of producing a touchdown than a carry from midfield.
While these historical rates aren't necessarily the same thing as predictive probabilities, they are usually quite close over a decent sample. The following table lists a bird’s-eye view of the touchdown rates for all running back opportunities (carries and targets) over the last 10 seasons, with field positions aggregated for simplicity.
RB TD Rates by Field Position (Last 10 Seasons):
2 months ago
The starting pitcher market is more difficult to manage than that at any other position. The nature of the position — appearing on the mound once every five games — makes it difficult to separate fact from fiction when **** sing a statistical profile. And the frequent long-term injuries add to the cloudy nature of our favorite mound men. Here are a few hurlers who could be valued incorrectly on the Yahoo Trade Market.
Chase Burns, Reds: Burns is a terrific young pitcher who will likely be drafted as an ace next year. But there are reasons to believe that his 2026 value is currently at its peak. The right-hander has benefited from a 93.4% strand rate that is 7.3% higher than that of any other qualified pitcher. Even with his skills, that rate will likely drop by 10%, which will push his 2.00 ERA closer to the 3.00-3.30 range of his ERA estimators. It's also fair to worry about a restriction of innings in the second half for someone who threw 109.1 frames between the minors and majors last year.
Eduardo Rodríguez, Diamondbacks: Rodríguez was mentioned in this **** e a few weeks ago and remains an obvious sell-high candidate. His 2.27 ERA ranks sixth in baseball, but all of the popular ERA estimators **** ign him a mark north of 4.00. The southpaw struggles to collect whiffs (18.0% strikeout rate) and has average control (9.8% walk rate). Rodríguez will soon experience regression on his .251 BABIP and 86.9% strand rate. Wise managers will trade him for anyone who they see as a roster mainstay.
Nick Martinez, Rays: Martinez has plenty of similarities to Rodríguez as someone who should be traded for anything of value. The 35-year-old has logged a 2.73 ERA that doesn't resemble his 4.60 xERA, mainly thanks to an 83.2% strand rate. His swing-and-miss skills are far below average (15.1% strikeout rate), and in the long run they will be too low to be offset by strong control skills (4.7% walk rate). Regression has already started to set in, as Martinez has posted a 6.04 ERA in June.
Michael King, Padres: Although he recovered with a strong start on Monday, King has been a mess of late, posting a 5.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over his past six starts. His swing-and-miss skills have completely disappeared over that stretch (5.1 K/9 rate), and his control skills have been subpar all season. This is the second straight year that King has logged an ERA that is roughly a full run lower than his ERA estimators. Fantasy managers should get what they can for the right-hander before his numbers take another tumble.
Chase Burns, Reds: Burns is a terrific young pitcher who will likely be drafted as an ace next year. But there are reasons to believe that his 2026 value is currently at its peak. The right-hander has benefited from a 93.4% strand rate that is 7.3% higher than that of any other qualified pitcher. Even with his skills, that rate will likely drop by 10%, which will push his 2.00 ERA closer to the 3.00-3.30 range of his ERA estimators. It's also fair to worry about a restriction of innings in the second half for someone who threw 109.1 frames between the minors and majors last year.
Eduardo Rodríguez, Diamondbacks: Rodríguez was mentioned in this **** e a few weeks ago and remains an obvious sell-high candidate. His 2.27 ERA ranks sixth in baseball, but all of the popular ERA estimators **** ign him a mark north of 4.00. The southpaw struggles to collect whiffs (18.0% strikeout rate) and has average control (9.8% walk rate). Rodríguez will soon experience regression on his .251 BABIP and 86.9% strand rate. Wise managers will trade him for anyone who they see as a roster mainstay.
Nick Martinez, Rays: Martinez has plenty of similarities to Rodríguez as someone who should be traded for anything of value. The 35-year-old has logged a 2.73 ERA that doesn't resemble his 4.60 xERA, mainly thanks to an 83.2% strand rate. His swing-and-miss skills are far below average (15.1% strikeout rate), and in the long run they will be too low to be offset by strong control skills (4.7% walk rate). Regression has already started to set in, as Martinez has posted a 6.04 ERA in June.
Michael King, Padres: Although he recovered with a strong start on Monday, King has been a mess of late, posting a 5.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over his past six starts. His swing-and-miss skills have completely disappeared over that stretch (5.1 K/9 rate), and his control skills have been subpar all season. This is the second straight year that King has logged an ERA that is roughly a full run lower than his ERA estimators. Fantasy managers should get what they can for the right-hander before his numbers take another tumble.
3 months ago
For Northampton Saints and Exeter Chiefs, this Gallagher Prem season will end as it began. It feels a long while ago that the pair embarked on their domestic campaigns in the shadow of the Women's World Cup final but, as they prepare to dance again on a grander stage, the opening round meeting between the pair at Franklin's Gardens is worth reflecting upon. It feels, in a way, a fixture of a different time, occurring too early in the season for Northampton's British and Irish Lions to play a part and before Exeter's impactful Australian additions had even arrived in the country.
And yet, within the details, were clues and cues for the season that has followed. Northampton's establishing of a 33-7 half-time lead came courtesy of a try from Tom Litchfield, launching his breakthrough campaign as the latest back off the production line; Exeter's superb counter-offensive was inspired by Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, so influential when fitness has permitted a place on the park. There was a certain symmetry to how the Chiefs roared back to ****** a draw on the opening weekend and the second-half surge in the semi-final at the Rec that has set up their Twickenham trip. They, as in September and last week, begin as underdogs; Northampton will recognise from experience that this Chiefs team doesn't know when it is beaten.
"Knowing some of these lads, they've got the confidence and belief to think they can do anything and that's how I want them to feel," Exeter boss Rob Baxter said this week. "My job is to just get them ready enough and I say more than anything else, emotionally ready enough to put another 80 minutes together, because if they can roll up like that again, it's going to be a ****** of a day."
12 months ago, when they had finished eighth and ninth in the table, the idea of a final between these two felt unlikely. It was easy to project a positive regression for Northampton after an abnormal, anomalous season in which they had prioritised a proper go in the Champions Cup over another ****** le tilt in the Prem but it is to be commended how impressively they have restored domestic order nonetheless. The emergence of Litchfield, Edoardo Todaro, Archie McParland, Ed Prowse and others is testament to a coaching staff that marries off-pitch culture and on-field capers so superbly.
Such a swift turnaround for Exeter was rather harder to foresee. They were, in truth, a club that looked lost this time a year ago, mired in uncertainty and upheaval from top to bottom. Now, with new American owners on the way, a playing group of renewed purpose and the steadying hand of Baxter back firmly on the tiller, English rugby union's modern success story appear upwardly mobile again. Having had their remarkable rise through the ranks translated to the stage earlier this season, with the excellent book Exe Men converted for a limited run in the autumn, another Prem ****** le might just make a compelling third act to the Exeter story.
And yet, within the details, were clues and cues for the season that has followed. Northampton's establishing of a 33-7 half-time lead came courtesy of a try from Tom Litchfield, launching his breakthrough campaign as the latest back off the production line; Exeter's superb counter-offensive was inspired by Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, so influential when fitness has permitted a place on the park. There was a certain symmetry to how the Chiefs roared back to ****** a draw on the opening weekend and the second-half surge in the semi-final at the Rec that has set up their Twickenham trip. They, as in September and last week, begin as underdogs; Northampton will recognise from experience that this Chiefs team doesn't know when it is beaten.
"Knowing some of these lads, they've got the confidence and belief to think they can do anything and that's how I want them to feel," Exeter boss Rob Baxter said this week. "My job is to just get them ready enough and I say more than anything else, emotionally ready enough to put another 80 minutes together, because if they can roll up like that again, it's going to be a ****** of a day."
12 months ago, when they had finished eighth and ninth in the table, the idea of a final between these two felt unlikely. It was easy to project a positive regression for Northampton after an abnormal, anomalous season in which they had prioritised a proper go in the Champions Cup over another ****** le tilt in the Prem but it is to be commended how impressively they have restored domestic order nonetheless. The emergence of Litchfield, Edoardo Todaro, Archie McParland, Ed Prowse and others is testament to a coaching staff that marries off-pitch culture and on-field capers so superbly.
Such a swift turnaround for Exeter was rather harder to foresee. They were, in truth, a club that looked lost this time a year ago, mired in uncertainty and upheaval from top to bottom. Now, with new American owners on the way, a playing group of renewed purpose and the steadying hand of Baxter back firmly on the tiller, English rugby union's modern success story appear upwardly mobile again. Having had their remarkable rise through the ranks translated to the stage earlier this season, with the excellent book Exe Men converted for a limited run in the autumn, another Prem ****** le might just make a compelling third act to the Exeter story.
3 months ago
Ever since Giancarlo Stanton went down with an injury and Paul Goldschmidt found himself in the starting lineup pretty much every day, the Yankees have had a fairly consistent strategy atop the order. Against right-handed pitchers, Trent Grisham would lead off, and against southpaws, Goldschmidt would. In fact, between Stanton’s injury back on April 24th and Grisham’s injury this past weekend, the Yankees deviated from this pattern just four times, with Ben Rice sitting atop the order on May 16th, May 20th, May 21st, and June 2nd.
Early indications suggest that the Yankees might opt to have Rice lead off against righties, while continuing to bat him second against lefties; indeed, this is exactly what they did last Saturday, the team’s first day without Grisham. I would like to make the case, however, for another batter to sit atop the order: Jasson Domínguez.
Back when he was a top prospect, Yankees fans dreamed of the Martian as a middle-of-the-order bat. During his 2023 cup of coffee, that seemed accurate, as he hit four home runs in just eight games before requiring Tommy John surgery. Aside from that stretch, however, the prodigious power he demonstrated as a 16-year-old has not really materialized at the Major League level, and while there’s still time for that to come around — he is, after all, just 23 years old — that is not the player he is today.
The traits that have developed, though, suggest to me that he could be an effective bat at the top of the order. In 429 plate appearances last season, Domínguez worked 41 walks, good for a 9.6 walk rate that ranked in the 67th percentile. Although he has not yet demonstrated that so far this season, this walk rate matches what ****** ysts have said about him during his years as a prospect: for example, MLB’s top prospect lists said prior to the 2024 season that “he draws more than his share of walks.” And while he’s not been barreling the ball as of yet, he has cut down his strikeout rates both in the majors (14.6 percent, down from 26.8 percent last season) and in the minors (16.1 percent when in Scranton).
Even if it hasn’t resulted in real production as of yet, there’s quite a bit of red on that Statcast profile. Batting in front of a hitter like Ben Rice, the Martian would see a lot of pitches to hit, as teams will want to avoid putting runners on for the Yankees’ first baseman/designated hitter. Even though our sample size is still too small to say with certainty that Domínguez will see positive regression, they provide some reason for optimism that he can at least get on base at a decent clip while providing some power in the gaps and making some plays on the basepaths with his speed — which is exactly what the Yankees could use as a table setter with Grisham out so many hitters out.
Early indications suggest that the Yankees might opt to have Rice lead off against righties, while continuing to bat him second against lefties; indeed, this is exactly what they did last Saturday, the team’s first day without Grisham. I would like to make the case, however, for another batter to sit atop the order: Jasson Domínguez.
Back when he was a top prospect, Yankees fans dreamed of the Martian as a middle-of-the-order bat. During his 2023 cup of coffee, that seemed accurate, as he hit four home runs in just eight games before requiring Tommy John surgery. Aside from that stretch, however, the prodigious power he demonstrated as a 16-year-old has not really materialized at the Major League level, and while there’s still time for that to come around — he is, after all, just 23 years old — that is not the player he is today.
The traits that have developed, though, suggest to me that he could be an effective bat at the top of the order. In 429 plate appearances last season, Domínguez worked 41 walks, good for a 9.6 walk rate that ranked in the 67th percentile. Although he has not yet demonstrated that so far this season, this walk rate matches what ****** ysts have said about him during his years as a prospect: for example, MLB’s top prospect lists said prior to the 2024 season that “he draws more than his share of walks.” And while he’s not been barreling the ball as of yet, he has cut down his strikeout rates both in the majors (14.6 percent, down from 26.8 percent last season) and in the minors (16.1 percent when in Scranton).
Even if it hasn’t resulted in real production as of yet, there’s quite a bit of red on that Statcast profile. Batting in front of a hitter like Ben Rice, the Martian would see a lot of pitches to hit, as teams will want to avoid putting runners on for the Yankees’ first baseman/designated hitter. Even though our sample size is still too small to say with certainty that Domínguez will see positive regression, they provide some reason for optimism that he can at least get on base at a decent clip while providing some power in the gaps and making some plays on the basepaths with his speed — which is exactly what the Yankees could use as a table setter with Grisham out so many hitters out.
3 months ago
Anytime Aaron Wiggins was on the floor, things just didn't look the same. The 27-year-old has carved out a best-case scenario career by getting to the rim and finishing through traffic. Over the years, he's sharpened his outside jumper. To the point that he could create his own looks.
But for whatever reason, Wiggins' basketball powers suddenly vanished. The Oklahoma City Thunder gave him ample opportunities to rev up his motor, but all those chances became fruitless. He didn't have the same offensive juice. And on defense, the opposition went at him. After a while, they had to cut their losses and remove the longtime player from the rotation.
Wiggins didn't have the same magic he had last year. A career campaign that featured an NBA championship ring and an epic parade speech was followed up by regression to the mean across the board. He averaged 9.4 points on 43.1% shooting, 3.1 rebounds and 1.7 ****** ists. His outside shot went down to 35.6% from 3 on 4.2 attempts.
While those are solid numbers in a vacuum, most of the goodwill was bought with a blazing start. But injuries and inconsistent playing time eroded that production as the year went on. By the NBA playoffs, Wiggins was completely out of the rotation. In his exit interview, he talked about his reduced role.
"Nothing is permanent. A lot of things change from day to day and obviously, year to year. As the end of the season and that last stretch, I wasn't my best self. I obviously wasn't seeing the minutes that I might be capable of seeing," Wiggins said. "But from a team perspective, still being a professional, buying into the team and being around guys who I love supporting and being with. It makes it easy to come in and embrace the togetherness of the team first."
But for whatever reason, Wiggins' basketball powers suddenly vanished. The Oklahoma City Thunder gave him ample opportunities to rev up his motor, but all those chances became fruitless. He didn't have the same offensive juice. And on defense, the opposition went at him. After a while, they had to cut their losses and remove the longtime player from the rotation.
Wiggins didn't have the same magic he had last year. A career campaign that featured an NBA championship ring and an epic parade speech was followed up by regression to the mean across the board. He averaged 9.4 points on 43.1% shooting, 3.1 rebounds and 1.7 ****** ists. His outside shot went down to 35.6% from 3 on 4.2 attempts.
While those are solid numbers in a vacuum, most of the goodwill was bought with a blazing start. But injuries and inconsistent playing time eroded that production as the year went on. By the NBA playoffs, Wiggins was completely out of the rotation. In his exit interview, he talked about his reduced role.
"Nothing is permanent. A lot of things change from day to day and obviously, year to year. As the end of the season and that last stretch, I wasn't my best self. I obviously wasn't seeing the minutes that I might be capable of seeing," Wiggins said. "But from a team perspective, still being a professional, buying into the team and being around guys who I love supporting and being with. It makes it easy to come in and embrace the togetherness of the team first."
3 months ago
The freight downturn that defined 2023 and 2024 has decisively reversed, and the May data clarifies the mechanism behind it: industrial production, rather than consumer spending or inventory restocking, is now driving the cycle. FreightWaves identified the inflection months ago. The latest readings from the Institute for Supply Management and the Logistics Managers’ Index, corroborated by real-time tender data, confirm it.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.0 in May, up 1.3 points from April and the highest reading since May 2022. The index has now held above the expansion threshold for five consecutive months, following a 10-month contraction. On ISM’s own regression, a 54.0 composite is consistent with roughly 2.2% annualized growth in real GDP.
The internals are stronger than the headline. The New Orders index rose to 56.8, comfortably above the 51.9 level ISM identifies as the breakeven for rising Census manufacturing orders in constant dollars. Production reached 54.3, above the 52.0 threshold ***** ociated with rising Federal Reserve industrial output. As a forward-looking series, new orders typically lead realized freight volumes by several weeks, which makes the current reading the more economically meaningful of the two.
Breadth reinforces the signal. All six of the largest manufacturing industries expanded in May — led by computer and electronic products, machinery, and transportation equipment — and 16 of 18 industries reported growth, with only wood products in contraction. Diffusion of this width is characteristic of a self-sustaining expansion rather than a narrow, sector-specific rebound.
The labor data points to a productivity-led expansion. The Employment index came in at 48.6 — still below the 50.3 breakeven for rising BLS manufacturing payrolls, but up 2.2 points and trending toward it. Manufacturers have expanded output for seven straight months while holding headcount roughly flat, indicating they are absorbing incremental demand through existing capacity. Payroll growth typically lags output in the early phase of an industrial recovery; the trajectory of the employment index suggests hiring is the next stage.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.0 in May, up 1.3 points from April and the highest reading since May 2022. The index has now held above the expansion threshold for five consecutive months, following a 10-month contraction. On ISM’s own regression, a 54.0 composite is consistent with roughly 2.2% annualized growth in real GDP.
The internals are stronger than the headline. The New Orders index rose to 56.8, comfortably above the 51.9 level ISM identifies as the breakeven for rising Census manufacturing orders in constant dollars. Production reached 54.3, above the 52.0 threshold ***** ociated with rising Federal Reserve industrial output. As a forward-looking series, new orders typically lead realized freight volumes by several weeks, which makes the current reading the more economically meaningful of the two.
Breadth reinforces the signal. All six of the largest manufacturing industries expanded in May — led by computer and electronic products, machinery, and transportation equipment — and 16 of 18 industries reported growth, with only wood products in contraction. Diffusion of this width is characteristic of a self-sustaining expansion rather than a narrow, sector-specific rebound.
The labor data points to a productivity-led expansion. The Employment index came in at 48.6 — still below the 50.3 breakeven for rising BLS manufacturing payrolls, but up 2.2 points and trending toward it. Manufacturers have expanded output for seven straight months while holding headcount roughly flat, indicating they are absorbing incremental demand through existing capacity. Payroll growth typically lags output in the early phase of an industrial recovery; the trajectory of the employment index suggests hiring is the next stage.
1 yr. ago
2/2: Value alert: Over 8.5 (-120) leans high with NYM's .260 team AVG & Cards' 3/5 OVERs. Blade Tidwell (MLB debut) vs Erick Fedde (4.68 ERA). Fedde's 5.49 xFIP suggests regression. NYM bullpen advantage (top 10 ERA) vs STL's middle-tier relief. Projected total: 9.2 runs. http...
