For the last couple of years, I've used this outlier touchdowns column to spotlight fantasy players due for regression — positive or negative — in the upcoming season. Not to toot my own horn, but the 2025 running back edition was a rousing success. All three of the RBs due to score more in 2025 — D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne Jr. and Jaylen Warren — improved their touchdown totals ... and they combined for an increase of 22 scores year-over-year. Zach Charbonnet was the only real miss of the RBs due to score less, but James Cook saw a slight dip as predicted, and David Montgomery was a major fantasy bust after logging four fewer TDs.
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First, a quick crash course on the data. There is a consistent historical rate at which an average NFL player finds the end zone, relative to their opportunity. That rate can be more specifically dissected by field position to offer a more granular look at the data — unsurprisingly, a goal-to-go target has a much higher chance of producing a touchdown than a carry from midfield.
While these historical rates aren't necessarily the same thing as predictive probabilities, they are usually quite close over a decent sample. The following table lists a bird’s-eye view of the touchdown rates for all running back opportunities (carries and targets) over the last 10 seasons, with field positions aggregated for simplicity.
RB TD Rates by Field Position (Last 10 Seasons):