One way to find hitters who could bounce back in the second half is to look at expected metrics. Most expected batting average (xBA) formulas involve exit velocity. We want hitters to hit the ball hard. If hitters hit the ball hard and make enough contact, positive outcomes should occur. That’s a case where we want to trust a player’s skills instead of luck.
The visual below shows the hitters with the biggest gap in their xBA and actual BA. That suggests these hitters should have a better BA based on their skills.
We’ll take this a step further, looking at the hitters with the biggest expected wOBA difference in their actual wOBA, adding another layer to their profile. Unsurprisingly, some of the hitters with potential positive regression in their xBA also land on the list of xwOBA improvers, as seen below.
That said, let’s examine several hitters who could rebound in the second half based on the advanced metrics.
After hitting 20+ home runs and stealing double-digit bases in the two previous seasons, most of the projections have Nimmo under 20 home runs. The Mets' home park ranks 18th, with the Rangers at 17th in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed hitters in the three-year rolling average. That said, it’s a neutral change. However, the Rangers' home park ranks 12th and the Mets is 19th in Home Run Park Factor for left-handed hitters if we filter by this season.