1 month ago
A key gauge of where the market thinks rates are headed is the CME FedWatch survey, which polls interest rate traders. In the days leading up to the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, almost 60% of those polled expected a 25-basis-point rate hike, which the FOMC delivered on Sept. 16.
While most, 78%, expect rates to stay the same at the Oct. 28 Fed meeting, an overwhelming majority of traders anticipate a rate hike when the FOMC meets on Dec. 9. Specifically, 67% expect a 25-basis-point increase, and 17% say rates will be 50 basis points higher by then.
Missed AI's "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our **** ysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
They may be taking cues from FOMC members themselves, like Fed Governor Michael Barr. In a speech on Sept. 29 in Detroit, Barr said eight words that gave a decent clue as to what he is thinking about rates.
"Further policy adjustments are likely to be needed," Barr said in Detroit last week, "to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion."
#missed
While most, 78%, expect rates to stay the same at the Oct. 28 Fed meeting, an overwhelming majority of traders anticipate a rate hike when the FOMC meets on Dec. 9. Specifically, 67% expect a 25-basis-point increase, and 17% say rates will be 50 basis points higher by then.
Missed AI's "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our **** ysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
They may be taking cues from FOMC members themselves, like Fed Governor Michael Barr. In a speech on Sept. 29 in Detroit, Barr said eight words that gave a decent clue as to what he is thinking about rates.
"Further policy adjustments are likely to be needed," Barr said in Detroit last week, "to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion."
#missed
2 months ago
US stock index futures pointed to a higher opening on Wednesday as crude oil prices declined and investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day.
The indicated rebound followed two consecutive sessions of losses that pushed the S&P 500 to its lowest closing level in more than a month.
US crude oil futures fell nearly 2% after gaining almost 6% over the previous two days. The decline followed an American Petroleum Institute report showing an unexpected increase of 7.1 million barrels in US crude oil inventories last week.
Trading activity could remain limited ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market pricing indicated a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase. The figure reflects market-implied expectations rather than a confirmed policy decision.
#increase
The indicated rebound followed two consecutive sessions of losses that pushed the S&P 500 to its lowest closing level in more than a month.
US crude oil futures fell nearly 2% after gaining almost 6% over the previous two days. The decline followed an American Petroleum Institute report showing an unexpected increase of 7.1 million barrels in US crude oil inventories last week.
Trading activity could remain limited ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market pricing indicated a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase. The figure reflects market-implied expectations rather than a confirmed policy decision.
#increase
2 months ago
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points today, pushing the funds rate to 4% as major indices sold off in anticipation.
Brent Crude surged to $109 and WTI hit $106 as renewed Middle East fighting and a Saudi pipeline shutdown drove energy prices higher.
Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% to $76,180 after the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill failed in the Senate by a single vote, 50-49.
Read More: Avoid these 13 retirement mistakes before they derail your future (sponsor)
Futures are trading higher as the Federal Reserve's reckoning day has arrived. Interest rate futures tracked by CME FedWatch show a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point increase in the Fed funds rate today. That will push the funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. In addition, market watchers expect two more rate hikes over the next year to tackle sticky inflation, exacerbated by the war with Iran and rising oil prices.
#funds
Brent Crude surged to $109 and WTI hit $106 as renewed Middle East fighting and a Saudi pipeline shutdown drove energy prices higher.
Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% to $76,180 after the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill failed in the Senate by a single vote, 50-49.
Read More: Avoid these 13 retirement mistakes before they derail your future (sponsor)
Futures are trading higher as the Federal Reserve's reckoning day has arrived. Interest rate futures tracked by CME FedWatch show a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point increase in the Fed funds rate today. That will push the funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. In addition, market watchers expect two more rate hikes over the next year to tackle sticky inflation, exacerbated by the war with Iran and rising oil prices.
#funds
2 months ago
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Aug. 28 keynote speech at Jackson Hole to drive home the point that inflation is broader than the headline rate suggests, speaking directly to the everyday experiences of a rising price level that most people have been having for a while now. Specifically, Warsh said 54% of the 199 items in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, had risen by more than 3% in the 12 months through summer 2026, versus 32% of those items in the two decades before the pandemic.
That's a bit of an awkward situation for the companies that make up the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), whose stellar growth in 2026 has been built on profits that are much higher than average. In short, the next thing the market will need to deal with is, in all probability, a Federal Reserve that's keen on making businesses pay more for each dollar of borrowing, which could in turn end up leading to investors paying less for each dollar of profit ***** ociated with the ***** ets they buy.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Here's how that could unfold, and soon.
After the Sept. 11 inflation report showed that consumer prices are still rising at a faster-than-desired pace, the odds of a rate hike by the Fed at its meeting on Sept. 16 were 90%, per the CME FedWatch. Warsh also said in his speech that he'd struggle to call the current set of financial conditions restrictive. That obviously means that investors need to brace for higher rates.
#inflation
That's a bit of an awkward situation for the companies that make up the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), whose stellar growth in 2026 has been built on profits that are much higher than average. In short, the next thing the market will need to deal with is, in all probability, a Federal Reserve that's keen on making businesses pay more for each dollar of borrowing, which could in turn end up leading to investors paying less for each dollar of profit ***** ociated with the ***** ets they buy.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Here's how that could unfold, and soon.
After the Sept. 11 inflation report showed that consumer prices are still rising at a faster-than-desired pace, the odds of a rate hike by the Fed at its meeting on Sept. 16 were 90%, per the CME FedWatch. Warsh also said in his speech that he'd struggle to call the current set of financial conditions restrictive. That obviously means that investors need to brace for higher rates.
#inflation
2 months ago
Uniswap (UNI) has jumped by more than 6% in the past 24 hours, and it is the best-performing token in the top 20, as on-chain data shows that protocol fees have exploded in September.
In the past 30 days alone, this token has doubled its value, primarily amid the success of its launch on the Robinhood Chain.
Trading volumes in the past 24 hours have surged by 80%, to nearly $640 million. At those levels, they account for almost 15% of the ****** et's circulating market cap.
UNI has managed to defy a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by expectations of multiple upcoming rate hikes.
According to data from FedWatch, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. Meanwhile, it appears that ****** ysts are leaning toward a second rate increase in December, as high inflation in the United States persists.
#past #token #increase
In the past 30 days alone, this token has doubled its value, primarily amid the success of its launch on the Robinhood Chain.
Trading volumes in the past 24 hours have surged by 80%, to nearly $640 million. At those levels, they account for almost 15% of the ****** et's circulating market cap.
UNI has managed to defy a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by expectations of multiple upcoming rate hikes.
According to data from FedWatch, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. Meanwhile, it appears that ****** ysts are leaning toward a second rate increase in December, as high inflation in the United States persists.
#past #token #increase
2 months ago
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ($TNX) surged to 5.041% earlier today, marking its highest level since July 2007 and representing an 86-basis-point climb since the start of 2026. This 19-year high in benchmark borrowing costs has arrived at a critical juncture, with the Federal Reserve commencing its two-day policy meeting Tuesday and a rate decision expected Wednesday afternoon.
Markets are pricing in a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, per CME's FedWatch Tool, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. That overwhelming consensus in favor of a rate hike is a dramatic shift from roughly 59% just one week ago.
Goldman Sachs Expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to Raise Rates This Week — But Not Because of Oil Prices.
Middle East Supply Constraints Lift Crude Oil Prices
Crude Prices Soar as Global Oil Supplies Continue to Tighten
#prices #year #point #rate
Markets are pricing in a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, per CME's FedWatch Tool, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. That overwhelming consensus in favor of a rate hike is a dramatic shift from roughly 59% just one week ago.
Goldman Sachs Expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to Raise Rates This Week — But Not Because of Oil Prices.
Middle East Supply Constraints Lift Crude Oil Prices
Crude Prices Soar as Global Oil Supplies Continue to Tighten
#prices #year #point #rate
2 months ago
Uniswap (UNI) has jumped by more than 6% in the past 24 hours, and it is the best-performing token in the top 20, as on-chain data shows that protocol fees have exploded in September.
In the past 30 days alone, this token has doubled its value, primarily amid the success of its launch on the Robinhood Chain.
Trading volumes in the past 24 hours have surged by 80%, to nearly $640 million. At those levels, they account for almost 15% of the **** et's circulating market cap.
UNI has managed to defy a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by expectations of multiple upcoming rate hikes.
According to data from FedWatch, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. Meanwhile, it appears that **** ysts are leaning toward a second rate increase in December, as high inflation in the United States persists.
#token #robinhood
In the past 30 days alone, this token has doubled its value, primarily amid the success of its launch on the Robinhood Chain.
Trading volumes in the past 24 hours have surged by 80%, to nearly $640 million. At those levels, they account for almost 15% of the **** et's circulating market cap.
UNI has managed to defy a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by expectations of multiple upcoming rate hikes.
According to data from FedWatch, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. Meanwhile, it appears that **** ysts are leaning toward a second rate increase in December, as high inflation in the United States persists.
#token #robinhood
2 months ago
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ($TNX) surged to 5.041% earlier today, marking its highest level since July 2007 and representing an 86-basis-point climb since the start of 2026. This 19-year high in benchmark borrowing costs has arrived at a critical juncture, with the Federal Reserve commencing its two-day policy meeting Tuesday and a rate decision expected Wednesday afternoon.
Markets are pricing in a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, per CME's FedWatch Tool, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. That overwhelming consensus in favor of a rate hike is a dramatic shift from roughly 59% just one week ago.
Goldman Sachs Expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to Raise Rates This Week — But Not Because of Oil Prices.
Middle East Supply Constraints Lift Crude Oil Prices
Crude Prices Soar as Global Oil Supplies Continue to Tighten
#since #rate
Markets are pricing in a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, per CME's FedWatch Tool, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. That overwhelming consensus in favor of a rate hike is a dramatic shift from roughly 59% just one week ago.
Goldman Sachs Expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to Raise Rates This Week — But Not Because of Oil Prices.
Middle East Supply Constraints Lift Crude Oil Prices
Crude Prices Soar as Global Oil Supplies Continue to Tighten
#since #rate
2 months ago
The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting kicked off Tuesday morning, and markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid persistently high inflation.
Such a move would mark the Fed's first increase in the fed funds rate since 2023, when the Jerome Powell-led central bank concluded its post-pandemic hiking campaign. However, inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, with the war in the Middle East serving as the latest driver of higher prices.
As Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech in August, "We have work to do."
Still, a hold isn't entirely off the table — even as traders price in a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been adamant about not providing markets with forward guidance on interest rate decisions, preferring that officials have a "good family fight" over the data at FOMC meetings.
In addition to the intrigue over whether the Fed will hike rates, markets will closely scrutinize the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, for clues about monetary policy in the next few years.
#federal
Such a move would mark the Fed's first increase in the fed funds rate since 2023, when the Jerome Powell-led central bank concluded its post-pandemic hiking campaign. However, inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, with the war in the Middle East serving as the latest driver of higher prices.
As Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech in August, "We have work to do."
Still, a hold isn't entirely off the table — even as traders price in a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been adamant about not providing markets with forward guidance on interest rate decisions, preferring that officials have a "good family fight" over the data at FOMC meetings.
In addition to the intrigue over whether the Fed will hike rates, markets will closely scrutinize the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, for clues about monetary policy in the next few years.
#federal
2 months ago
XRP dropped 8% and Coinbase fell 8.65% after the Senate killed the CLARITY Act 50-49, stripping XRP's commodity status of any federal legal protection.
Without spot ETF buyers, corporate treasury support, or a legislative floor, XRP faces the Fed's first potential rate hike in three years with support at $1.25.
Read More: Learn 7 ways to generate income with a $1,000,000+ portfolio (sponsor)
XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is currently trading at $1.28, down 9.4% in the past 24 hours and marking the worst performance among major cryptocurrencies. On September 15, the Senate voted at 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to open debate on the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at making XRP's commodity status under U.S. law permanent. Unfortunately, the motion failed with a vote of 49 to 50.
Today at 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, with CME FedWatch indicating a 92% chance of the first rate hike in three years. Additionally, XRP fell below $1.355, a level it had held for five consecutive sessions. This raises the question of what caused XRP's downturn and where the selling will end.
#commodity
Without spot ETF buyers, corporate treasury support, or a legislative floor, XRP faces the Fed's first potential rate hike in three years with support at $1.25.
Read More: Learn 7 ways to generate income with a $1,000,000+ portfolio (sponsor)
XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is currently trading at $1.28, down 9.4% in the past 24 hours and marking the worst performance among major cryptocurrencies. On September 15, the Senate voted at 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to open debate on the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at making XRP's commodity status under U.S. law permanent. Unfortunately, the motion failed with a vote of 49 to 50.
Today at 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, with CME FedWatch indicating a 92% chance of the first rate hike in three years. Additionally, XRP fell below $1.355, a level it had held for five consecutive sessions. This raises the question of what caused XRP's downturn and where the selling will end.
#commodity
2 months ago
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point at its meeting Wednesday, which would mark the first increase since July 2023, according to CNBC. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed traders placing odds above 90% on a hike, an outcome that would set the federal funds rate target range at 3.75%–4%.
That would follow a period in which the FOMC reduced rates on six separate occasions totaling 175 basis points from July 2023 through early 2026, according to CNBC. Since then, a string of discouraging inflation readings, a firm labor market, and crude oil prices rising back above $100 a barrel — driven by the conflict involving Iran — have shifted the calculus toward tightening.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium helped accelerate that shift, according to CNBC. As recently as a month ago, futures markets put the probability of a hike at only 36%.
The path to Wednesday's expected decision reflects a committee that had been moving in a hawkish direction for months. At the June meeting — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first — the committee voted 12–0 to hold rates steady, but the Fed released projections showing nine of 18 officials favored at least one rate hike before year-end. Consumer prices had risen 4.2% year-over-year in May, a three-year high. Warsh said at the time that the Fed's commitment to bringing down inflation was "strong, unanimous, and unambiguous."
Minutes from the July meeting, when the committee held rates steady on a fractured 9–3 vote, showed hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three dissenting regional bank presidents who had pushed for an immediate increase. The minutes indicated that "some policy firming would likely be warranted" if inflation remained persistent, driven by factors including AI-fueled demand, Middle East energy disruptions, or tariff pass-through.
#cnbc #hike #rates #inflation
That would follow a period in which the FOMC reduced rates on six separate occasions totaling 175 basis points from July 2023 through early 2026, according to CNBC. Since then, a string of discouraging inflation readings, a firm labor market, and crude oil prices rising back above $100 a barrel — driven by the conflict involving Iran — have shifted the calculus toward tightening.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium helped accelerate that shift, according to CNBC. As recently as a month ago, futures markets put the probability of a hike at only 36%.
The path to Wednesday's expected decision reflects a committee that had been moving in a hawkish direction for months. At the June meeting — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first — the committee voted 12–0 to hold rates steady, but the Fed released projections showing nine of 18 officials favored at least one rate hike before year-end. Consumer prices had risen 4.2% year-over-year in May, a three-year high. Warsh said at the time that the Fed's commitment to bringing down inflation was "strong, unanimous, and unambiguous."
Minutes from the July meeting, when the committee held rates steady on a fractured 9–3 vote, showed hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three dissenting regional bank presidents who had pushed for an immediate increase. The minutes indicated that "some policy firming would likely be warranted" if inflation remained persistent, driven by factors including AI-fueled demand, Middle East energy disruptions, or tariff pass-through.
#cnbc #hike #rates #inflation
2 months ago
Some offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us, which may affect which products we write about, but not our recommendations. See our Advertiser Disclosure.
Silver (SI=F) December futures opened at $64.18 per ounce on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, up 0.5% from Tuesday's closing price. Silver prices rose this morning, reaching $65.08 as of 6:42 a.m. ET.
This morning, silver prices have lifted out of the $63 to $64 range they maintained all week ahead of one of the most anticipated Fed meetings in some time. Market observers are anticipating the first Fed rate increase in three years.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is still a 92.5% chance the Fed will raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, the same as yesterday. On Monday, the chances were pegged at 86.5%. On Friday, the percentage was 69.4%.
Higher interest rates are a headwind for precious metals and crypto prices since these investments do not pay interest.
#morning #rate #disclosure
Silver (SI=F) December futures opened at $64.18 per ounce on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, up 0.5% from Tuesday's closing price. Silver prices rose this morning, reaching $65.08 as of 6:42 a.m. ET.
This morning, silver prices have lifted out of the $63 to $64 range they maintained all week ahead of one of the most anticipated Fed meetings in some time. Market observers are anticipating the first Fed rate increase in three years.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is still a 92.5% chance the Fed will raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, the same as yesterday. On Monday, the chances were pegged at 86.5%. On Friday, the percentage was 69.4%.
Higher interest rates are a headwind for precious metals and crypto prices since these investments do not pay interest.
#morning #rate #disclosure
2 months ago
The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting kicked off Tuesday morning, and markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid persistently high inflation.
Such a move would mark the Fed's first increase in the fed funds rate since 2023, when the Jerome Powell-led central bank concluded its post-pandemic hiking campaign. However, inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, with the war in the Middle East serving as the latest driver of higher prices.
As Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech in August, "We have work to do."
Still, a hold isn't entirely off the table — even as traders price in a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been adamant about not providing markets with forward guidance on interest rate decisions, preferring that officials have a "good family fight" over the data at FOMC meetings.
In addition to the intrigue over whether the Fed will hike rates, markets will closely scrutinize the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, for clues about monetary policy in the next few years.
#rate #warsh #interest #inflation
Such a move would mark the Fed's first increase in the fed funds rate since 2023, when the Jerome Powell-led central bank concluded its post-pandemic hiking campaign. However, inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, with the war in the Middle East serving as the latest driver of higher prices.
As Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech in August, "We have work to do."
Still, a hold isn't entirely off the table — even as traders price in a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been adamant about not providing markets with forward guidance on interest rate decisions, preferring that officials have a "good family fight" over the data at FOMC meetings.
In addition to the intrigue over whether the Fed will hike rates, markets will closely scrutinize the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, for clues about monetary policy in the next few years.
#rate #warsh #interest #inflation
2 months ago
Some offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us, which may affect which products we write about, but not our recommendations. See our Advertiser Disclosure.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) opened at $76,806.19 on Monday, September 14, 2026, 0.6% lower than Sunday's opening price. As of 7:31 a.m. ET this morning, the price of bitcoin moved up to $77,873.33.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) opened at $2,475.82 on Monday, September 14, 2026, down 2% from Sunday's opening price. The price of ethereum moved higher this morning to $2,514.09 as of 7:31 a.m. ET.
Bitcoin and ethereum prices opened lower this morning, as they did on Friday, but have moved up in early trading, despite oil prices moving even higher today following reports of attacks in the Middle East over the weekend.
An attack on a Saudi Arabian pipeline, as well as on homes and a mosque, has global oil prices (BZ=F) up over 11% in the last five-day period. Expectations that the Fed will raise rates this week have also risen appreciably. This morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the chances for a rate increase this week are now 86.5%, up from 69.4% on Friday morning.
#price #opened #Monday #september
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) opened at $76,806.19 on Monday, September 14, 2026, 0.6% lower than Sunday's opening price. As of 7:31 a.m. ET this morning, the price of bitcoin moved up to $77,873.33.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) opened at $2,475.82 on Monday, September 14, 2026, down 2% from Sunday's opening price. The price of ethereum moved higher this morning to $2,514.09 as of 7:31 a.m. ET.
Bitcoin and ethereum prices opened lower this morning, as they did on Friday, but have moved up in early trading, despite oil prices moving even higher today following reports of attacks in the Middle East over the weekend.
An attack on a Saudi Arabian pipeline, as well as on homes and a mosque, has global oil prices (BZ=F) up over 11% in the last five-day period. Expectations that the Fed will raise rates this week have also risen appreciably. This morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the chances for a rate increase this week are now 86.5%, up from 69.4% on Friday morning.
#price #opened #Monday #september
2 months ago
By Noel Randewich
Sept 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended higher on Friday as oil prices retreated and strong consumer price data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week to fight inflation.
AI server maker Dell soared 12% to a record high. Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped 12% and HP gained 8.4% after Oracle's quarterly results topped estimates. Oracle dipped 1.8%.
U.S. consumer prices accelerated last month as the cost of gasoline rebounded after two straight monthly declines, adding pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.
Interest rate futures now reflect a nearly 90% probability that the central bank will raise rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That is up from a 72% likelihood on Thursday.
#raise #rates
Sept 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended higher on Friday as oil prices retreated and strong consumer price data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week to fight inflation.
AI server maker Dell soared 12% to a record high. Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped 12% and HP gained 8.4% after Oracle's quarterly results topped estimates. Oracle dipped 1.8%.
U.S. consumer prices accelerated last month as the cost of gasoline rebounded after two straight monthly declines, adding pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.
Interest rate futures now reflect a nearly 90% probability that the central bank will raise rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That is up from a 72% likelihood on Thursday.
#raise #rates
2 months ago
A fresh reading on inflation showed monthly prices rose more than expected in August, increasing the likelihood the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
A rebound to oil at $100 per barrel also complicates the picture.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices — the way the Fed likes to scrutinize underlying inflation — the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month, compared with expectations for 0.2%. The year-over-year rate was in line with expectations for 2.4% and down a tenth of a percentage point from July. On a headline basis, CPI rose 3.4% in August, in line with expectations, and 0.4% month over month.
"The upside surprise to core CPI in August means the Fed looks set to hike next week," said Stephen Brown, North America chief economist for Capital Economics.
Markets are now betting on a 90% chance of a rate hike at Wednesday's Fed policy meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
#august #expectations #inflation
A rebound to oil at $100 per barrel also complicates the picture.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices — the way the Fed likes to scrutinize underlying inflation — the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month, compared with expectations for 0.2%. The year-over-year rate was in line with expectations for 2.4% and down a tenth of a percentage point from July. On a headline basis, CPI rose 3.4% in August, in line with expectations, and 0.4% month over month.
"The upside surprise to core CPI in August means the Fed looks set to hike next week," said Stephen Brown, North America chief economist for Capital Economics.
Markets are now betting on a 90% chance of a rate hike at Wednesday's Fed policy meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
#august #expectations #inflation
2 months ago
Updated Sept. 11, 2026 3:56 pm ET
Listen
(2 min)
1554 ET – U.S. Treasury yields ended the week higher, with the 10-year yield almost reaching 5% before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department increased rate hike expectations to over 90%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The 2-year yield rose 0.263 percentage point this week to 4.642%. The 10-year yield rose 0.191 percentage point to 4.974% , hitting its highest yield since October 2023 this Friday. The 30-year yield rose 0.108 percentage point for the week to 5.354%. (jessica.coacciwsj.com)
1500 ET – The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is edging back up toward 5% amid a sharp bond sell-off, erasing some of the earlier declines following the Labor Department’s release of August CPI data. The U.S. 10-year yield trades at 4.975% near its highest level of the day and at its highest intraday yield since October 2023. The U.S. 2-year yield still trades around 4.644%. (jessica.coacciwsj.com)
#week #rose #percentage #labor
Listen
(2 min)
1554 ET – U.S. Treasury yields ended the week higher, with the 10-year yield almost reaching 5% before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department increased rate hike expectations to over 90%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The 2-year yield rose 0.263 percentage point this week to 4.642%. The 10-year yield rose 0.191 percentage point to 4.974% , hitting its highest yield since October 2023 this Friday. The 30-year yield rose 0.108 percentage point for the week to 5.354%. (jessica.coacciwsj.com)
1500 ET – The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is edging back up toward 5% amid a sharp bond sell-off, erasing some of the earlier declines following the Labor Department’s release of August CPI data. The U.S. 10-year yield trades at 4.975% near its highest level of the day and at its highest intraday yield since October 2023. The U.S. 2-year yield still trades around 4.644%. (jessica.coacciwsj.com)
#week #rose #percentage #labor
2 months ago
US stocks rose on Friday as investors digested the Consumer Price Index data, which showed inflation remained sticky and cemented bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next week.
The Dow Industrial Average (^DJI) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.9% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.8%. The major indexes posted weekly declines, however, after a four-day losing streak.
Investors turned their attention to the Consumer Price Index, the last piece of inflation data before Federal Reserve policymakers convene next week. Overall prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.4% on an annual basis, which were in line with economists' expectations and slightly hotter than July's reading.
But after stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the Fed's preferred reading, CPI rose 0.3%, compared to estimates for 0.2%.
Friday's CPI report prompted traders to ramp up their bets that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting next week, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. That's up from 72% a day ago and 50% a week ago.
#week #next
The Dow Industrial Average (^DJI) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.9% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.8%. The major indexes posted weekly declines, however, after a four-day losing streak.
Investors turned their attention to the Consumer Price Index, the last piece of inflation data before Federal Reserve policymakers convene next week. Overall prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.4% on an annual basis, which were in line with economists' expectations and slightly hotter than July's reading.
But after stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the Fed's preferred reading, CPI rose 0.3%, compared to estimates for 0.2%.
Friday's CPI report prompted traders to ramp up their bets that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting next week, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. That's up from 72% a day ago and 50% a week ago.
#week #next
2 months ago
The Federal Reserve's policy committee is expected to raise its key interest rate for the first time since 2023.
Fed officials face pressure to raise rates to combat stubbornly high inflation that has run above target since 2021.
A rate hike could provoke a response from President Donald Trump, who has demanded that the central bank reduce interest rates.
Federal Reserve officials meet Wednesday to plot the next move in their campaign to keep prices stable, and fresh data shows inflation is far from vanquished.
Fed officials are widely expected to raise the central bank's fed funds rate to combat inflation, increasing it a quarter-point to a range of 3.75% to 4% in the first rate hike since 2023. Financial markets are pricing in an 86% chance of a rate hike according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
#officials #federal #expected #first
Fed officials face pressure to raise rates to combat stubbornly high inflation that has run above target since 2021.
A rate hike could provoke a response from President Donald Trump, who has demanded that the central bank reduce interest rates.
Federal Reserve officials meet Wednesday to plot the next move in their campaign to keep prices stable, and fresh data shows inflation is far from vanquished.
Fed officials are widely expected to raise the central bank's fed funds rate to combat inflation, increasing it a quarter-point to a range of 3.75% to 4% in the first rate hike since 2023. Financial markets are pricing in an 86% chance of a rate hike according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
#officials #federal #expected #first
2 months ago
Updated Sept. 11, 2026 2:42 pm ET
Listen
(3 min)
1420 ET – Gold futures hold steady as a pullback in oil prices helps offset the impact of an inflation report that increased expectations for a Fed interest-rate rise next week. Front-month gold settles little changed on the day in New York at $4,366.20 a troy ounce, and is down 1.4% for the week. Gold and silver remain within a range of strong support, says Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital, and if the Fed does raise interest rates next week “it’s symbolic since the bond market had already tightened.” Silver settles up 0.4% at $64.554 a troy ounce, down 2.3% from a week ago. (anthony.harrupwsj.com)
1306 GMT – Gold prices rebounded after oil prices fell more than 2.5%, easing some inflationary concerns. Futures in New York rise 0.3% to $4,422.40 a troy ounce, but remain on track for a weekly loss. U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, bolstering market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week. According to the FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 87% probability that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates next week, from around 67% earlier on Friday. Still, “while the markets appear to be placing their proverbial bets on a hike, it’s likely that members of the FOMC won’t be quite as unequivocal,” says Kyle Rodda from Capital.com. “The doves on the committee, of which there are many, are likely to argue the case that the dip in annual core inflation justifies patience.” (giulia.petroniwsj.com)
#week #Gold #next #rates
Listen
(3 min)
1420 ET – Gold futures hold steady as a pullback in oil prices helps offset the impact of an inflation report that increased expectations for a Fed interest-rate rise next week. Front-month gold settles little changed on the day in New York at $4,366.20 a troy ounce, and is down 1.4% for the week. Gold and silver remain within a range of strong support, says Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital, and if the Fed does raise interest rates next week “it’s symbolic since the bond market had already tightened.” Silver settles up 0.4% at $64.554 a troy ounce, down 2.3% from a week ago. (anthony.harrupwsj.com)
1306 GMT – Gold prices rebounded after oil prices fell more than 2.5%, easing some inflationary concerns. Futures in New York rise 0.3% to $4,422.40 a troy ounce, but remain on track for a weekly loss. U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, bolstering market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week. According to the FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 87% probability that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates next week, from around 67% earlier on Friday. Still, “while the markets appear to be placing their proverbial bets on a hike, it’s likely that members of the FOMC won’t be quite as unequivocal,” says Kyle Rodda from Capital.com. “The doves on the committee, of which there are many, are likely to argue the case that the dip in annual core inflation justifies patience.” (giulia.petroniwsj.com)
#week #Gold #next #rates
2 months ago
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index report on Friday followed strong readings in several components of the Producer Price Index released on Thursday that feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes, the inflation measures the U.S. central bank tracks for its 2% target. The two reports led economists to think that PCE inflation excluding the volatile food and energy categories picked up in August.
Financial markets initially priced in a 91% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed's meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, before settling back to 87%, CME's FedWatch tool showed. That was up from 72% on Thursday. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in a 3.50%-3.75% range.
Most economists said the firmer inflation readings, combined with signs of the labor market regaining its footing in August, would compel Fed officials to raise borrowing costs not only next Wednesday, but possibly again in October or December.
#Consumer
WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index report on Friday followed strong readings in several components of the Producer Price Index released on Thursday that feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes, the inflation measures the U.S. central bank tracks for its 2% target. The two reports led economists to think that PCE inflation excluding the volatile food and energy categories picked up in August.
Financial markets initially priced in a 91% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed's meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, before settling back to 87%, CME's FedWatch tool showed. That was up from 72% on Thursday. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in a 3.50%-3.75% range.
Most economists said the firmer inflation readings, combined with signs of the labor market regaining its footing in August, would compel Fed officials to raise borrowing costs not only next Wednesday, but possibly again in October or December.
#Consumer
2 months ago
US stocks rose on Friday as investors digested the Consumer Price Index data, which showed inflation remained sticky and cemented bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next week.
The Dow Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed by about 1.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose by about 1.2%. The upbeat move comes after a four-day losing streak for the major indexes.
Investors turned their attention to the Consumer Price Index, the last piece of inflation data before Federal Reserve policymakers convene next week. Overall prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.4% on an annual basis, which were in line with economists' expectations and slightly hotter than July's reading.
Friday's CPI report prompted traders to ramp up their bets that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting next week, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. That's up from 72% a day ago and 50% a week ago.
Read more: What is inflation, and how does it affect you?
#week #rose
The Dow Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed by about 1.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose by about 1.2%. The upbeat move comes after a four-day losing streak for the major indexes.
Investors turned their attention to the Consumer Price Index, the last piece of inflation data before Federal Reserve policymakers convene next week. Overall prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.4% on an annual basis, which were in line with economists' expectations and slightly hotter than July's reading.
Friday's CPI report prompted traders to ramp up their bets that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting next week, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. That's up from 72% a day ago and 50% a week ago.
Read more: What is inflation, and how does it affect you?
#week #rose
2 months ago
For the first time in recent memory, the market doesn't have much of an idea of what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at its September meeting. We're less than two weeks away from the Fed's decision, and investors aren't sure whether to expect a rate hike for the first time since 2023 or if the Fed will hold rates steady.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, which monitors how the market is pricing future interest rate movements, there's roughly a 40% chance that rates won't move and a 60% chance of a rate hike. Roughly half of the voting committee favors a hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh didn't offer any forward guidance at Jackson Hole last week. In short, there is considerable uncertainty.
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Image source: Getty Images.
Because of this uncertainty, many investors feel it's time to pump the brakes on investing or do something different with new money. But there are some investments that make sense for long-term investors regardless of what the stock market is doing, or how much economic uncertainty there is. One of them is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT:VOO).
#time
According to the CME FedWatch tool, which monitors how the market is pricing future interest rate movements, there's roughly a 40% chance that rates won't move and a 60% chance of a rate hike. Roughly half of the voting committee favors a hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh didn't offer any forward guidance at Jackson Hole last week. In short, there is considerable uncertainty.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
Because of this uncertainty, many investors feel it's time to pump the brakes on investing or do something different with new money. But there are some investments that make sense for long-term investors regardless of what the stock market is doing, or how much economic uncertainty there is. One of them is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT:VOO).
#time
2 months ago
U.S. stocks climbed Thursday as investors grew hopeful the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, following remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 635 points, or 1.2%, according to CNBC, which noted the move would mark the index's strongest single-session performance since Aug. 4. The S&P 500 added 1% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.3%.
The rally came after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to support holding interest rates steady, so long as upcoming inflation data did not produce surprises. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.75% after his remarks, pulling back from its highest level since November 2023, which it had reached the day before.
The share of fed funds futures traders pricing in a rate hike at the central bank's meeting in a couple of weeks fell to 50.4% after Waller's statement, down from 63.2% a day earlier, according to CNBC, citing the CME FedWatch tool.
A rise in the ***** anese yen also contributed to the drop in Treasury yields. The yen was trading 2% stronger against the dollar at 155.36, capping a two-day run of nearly 3% that was set off by hawkish signals from a Bank of ***** an board member, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The broad S&P 500 rally included all but two of its sectors, with consumer stocks leading gains. Snowflake stock surged more than 20% after the company topped second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and offered an upbeat outlook. Broadcom stock fell 4% after the company paired its latest quarterly results with a fiscal fourth-quarter revenue forecast that fell short of what ***** ysts had anticipated.
#waller
The rally came after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to support holding interest rates steady, so long as upcoming inflation data did not produce surprises. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.75% after his remarks, pulling back from its highest level since November 2023, which it had reached the day before.
The share of fed funds futures traders pricing in a rate hike at the central bank's meeting in a couple of weeks fell to 50.4% after Waller's statement, down from 63.2% a day earlier, according to CNBC, citing the CME FedWatch tool.
A rise in the ***** anese yen also contributed to the drop in Treasury yields. The yen was trading 2% stronger against the dollar at 155.36, capping a two-day run of nearly 3% that was set off by hawkish signals from a Bank of ***** an board member, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The broad S&P 500 rally included all but two of its sectors, with consumer stocks leading gains. Snowflake stock surged more than 20% after the company topped second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and offered an upbeat outlook. Broadcom stock fell 4% after the company paired its latest quarterly results with a fiscal fourth-quarter revenue forecast that fell short of what ***** ysts had anticipated.
#waller
2 months ago
The crypto market—including Bitcoin and altcoins like XRP, Ethereum, and BNB—is riding a bullish wave of momentum in the U.S. stock market, seemingly triggered by fresh comments from the Federal Reserve, and sending short sellers to goblintown.
Bitcoin punched back above $80,000 on Thursday, trading near $80,270 and up close to 3% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is closing in on $2,500, up 2.2% today, while XRP is up a whopping 6% in the last 24 hours. The spike has accounted for at least $327 million in liquidated short positions in the last hour alone, and more than $415 million in the past 24 hours.
The catalyst appears to be comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who, in prepared remarks at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview, said he'd be "inclined to support" holding the Fed's benchmark interest rate at its current level if upcoming inflation data keeps improving.
Traders took the hint. The odds of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting fell to 50.4%, down from 63.2% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool, a market gauge that estimates the odds of Fed moves from futures prices. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs economy-wide that had touched its highest level since November 2023 a day earlier, dropped to around 4.73%.
It's a sharp reversal from a week ago. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole keynote had knocked Bitcoin down to $76,877 and pushed hike odds toward 56%. Thursday's bounce puts Bitcoin back at a level it's tested—and failed to hold—several times this year.
#short #back
Bitcoin punched back above $80,000 on Thursday, trading near $80,270 and up close to 3% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is closing in on $2,500, up 2.2% today, while XRP is up a whopping 6% in the last 24 hours. The spike has accounted for at least $327 million in liquidated short positions in the last hour alone, and more than $415 million in the past 24 hours.
The catalyst appears to be comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who, in prepared remarks at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview, said he'd be "inclined to support" holding the Fed's benchmark interest rate at its current level if upcoming inflation data keeps improving.
Traders took the hint. The odds of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting fell to 50.4%, down from 63.2% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool, a market gauge that estimates the odds of Fed moves from futures prices. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs economy-wide that had touched its highest level since November 2023 a day earlier, dropped to around 4.73%.
It's a sharp reversal from a week ago. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole keynote had knocked Bitcoin down to $76,877 and pushed hike odds toward 56%. Thursday's bounce puts Bitcoin back at a level it's tested—and failed to hold—several times this year.
#short #back
2 months ago
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Christopher Waller stood up at a Reuters event Thursday and paraphrased John Lennon at a room full of bond traders. "Give disinflation a chance," the Fed governor said. "We can wait one meeting." Somewhere a rates desk put down its sandwich.
Stocks took it as a gift. At noon, the S&P 500 had climbed just over 1%, the Nasdaq 1.4%, and the Dow tacked on 640 points for a 1.2% gain and its best session since Aug. 4. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.75% after spiking Wednesday.
The Fed's benchmark, the overnight rate it charges banks to borrow from each other, currently sits in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, and markets have spent weeks bracing for it to go higher on Sept. 16. Higher rates make a boring government bond paying you nearly 5% look awfully good next to stocks so we can forgive the equity jockeys who have been deprived of good news for a few moons from getting a little giddy when Waller signaled he'd hold if August inflation behaves and knocked hike odds from 63.2% to 50.4%, per CME FedWatch. Even if those traders are rejoicing on what's basically now a coin flip.
July's vote was 9 to 3 to hold, with Beth Hammack in Cleveland, Neel Kashkari in Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan in Dallas all wanting a quarter point more, the most dissents at a single meeting since 2016. Not one governor joined them. Warsh, for all his talk about inflation being a choice, has voted to sit still both times he's run the room.
#next #bond #traders
Christopher Waller stood up at a Reuters event Thursday and paraphrased John Lennon at a room full of bond traders. "Give disinflation a chance," the Fed governor said. "We can wait one meeting." Somewhere a rates desk put down its sandwich.
Stocks took it as a gift. At noon, the S&P 500 had climbed just over 1%, the Nasdaq 1.4%, and the Dow tacked on 640 points for a 1.2% gain and its best session since Aug. 4. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.75% after spiking Wednesday.
The Fed's benchmark, the overnight rate it charges banks to borrow from each other, currently sits in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, and markets have spent weeks bracing for it to go higher on Sept. 16. Higher rates make a boring government bond paying you nearly 5% look awfully good next to stocks so we can forgive the equity jockeys who have been deprived of good news for a few moons from getting a little giddy when Waller signaled he'd hold if August inflation behaves and knocked hike odds from 63.2% to 50.4%, per CME FedWatch. Even if those traders are rejoicing on what's basically now a coin flip.
July's vote was 9 to 3 to hold, with Beth Hammack in Cleveland, Neel Kashkari in Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan in Dallas all wanting a quarter point more, the most dissents at a single meeting since 2016. Not one governor joined them. Warsh, for all his talk about inflation being a choice, has voted to sit still both times he's run the room.
#next #bond #traders
2 months ago
Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to trim its yearly losses to just 11%, as traders jumped on board once again following the SEC's nod to the industry.
Although the initial euphoria has eased a bit, we still think the market's reaction could have put an end to the top crypto's bearish cycle.
The Treasury Department's decision to inject twice the amount it usually buys back in the bond market also signaled that the Trump administration is committed to pushing ******* et valuations to higher levels, with or without the Fed's support.
However, the rally may have hit a temporary ceiling, as ******* ysts once again see high odds that the U.S. central bank will raise rates in September.
Data from FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25 basis point increase during the next FOMC meeting shifted dramatically, jumping from 40% a week ago to 65% at the time of writing.
#once #Bitcoin #treasury #fedwatch
Although the initial euphoria has eased a bit, we still think the market's reaction could have put an end to the top crypto's bearish cycle.
The Treasury Department's decision to inject twice the amount it usually buys back in the bond market also signaled that the Trump administration is committed to pushing ******* et valuations to higher levels, with or without the Fed's support.
However, the rally may have hit a temporary ceiling, as ******* ysts once again see high odds that the U.S. central bank will raise rates in September.
Data from FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25 basis point increase during the next FOMC meeting shifted dramatically, jumping from 40% a week ago to 65% at the time of writing.
#once #Bitcoin #treasury #fedwatch
2 months ago
Barclays now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its September and December meetings, reversing a prior forecast of no changes through the remainder of the year, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the annual Jackson Hole symposium last Friday, according to Reuters.
The Wall Street brokerage described Warsh's speech as "notably hawkish" and said it offered an implicit case for further tightening, according to Reuters. Each of the two projected increases would amount to 25 basis points. The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate currently stands at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Barclays did note that near-term monthly inflation prints are likely to look considerably cooler than the longer-horizon gauges Warsh cited, but warned that base effects would undercut any apparent improvement in those annual measures before December. Traders are **** igning a 60.4% probability to a September hike, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
Warsh's Jackson Hole address, his first keynote at the event as Fed chair, drew significant market attention as his clearest opportunity to fill what had been a deliberate communications void since he took office in May. Warsh told the symposium that policymakers would "have work to do" if they lacked confidence that inflation was returning to the Fed's 2% target. In his remarks, Warsh cast inflation as unacceptably elevated, judged prevailing financial conditions to be doing too little to restrain demand, and described the labor market as operating at or near full employment.
Warsh reinforced his opposition to providing explicit forward guidance, declining to spell out the conditions that would trigger a policy response. "I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision," he said. He acknowledged that this summer's inflation readings came in better than expected but said they did not show meaningful improvement in underlying price trends. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed following the remarks, and traders raised the odds of a September rate increase.
#warsh #barclays
The Wall Street brokerage described Warsh's speech as "notably hawkish" and said it offered an implicit case for further tightening, according to Reuters. Each of the two projected increases would amount to 25 basis points. The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate currently stands at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Barclays did note that near-term monthly inflation prints are likely to look considerably cooler than the longer-horizon gauges Warsh cited, but warned that base effects would undercut any apparent improvement in those annual measures before December. Traders are **** igning a 60.4% probability to a September hike, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
Warsh's Jackson Hole address, his first keynote at the event as Fed chair, drew significant market attention as his clearest opportunity to fill what had been a deliberate communications void since he took office in May. Warsh told the symposium that policymakers would "have work to do" if they lacked confidence that inflation was returning to the Fed's 2% target. In his remarks, Warsh cast inflation as unacceptably elevated, judged prevailing financial conditions to be doing too little to restrain demand, and described the labor market as operating at or near full employment.
Warsh reinforced his opposition to providing explicit forward guidance, declining to spell out the conditions that would trigger a policy response. "I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision," he said. He acknowledged that this summer's inflation readings came in better than expected but said they did not show meaningful improvement in underlying price trends. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed following the remarks, and traders raised the odds of a September rate increase.
#warsh #barclays
2 months ago
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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) opened at $78,559.11 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 1.1% higher than Monday's opening price. As of 8:19 a.m. ET this morning, the price of bitcoin fell to $77,945.97.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) opened at $2,467.13 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, up 2% from Monday's opening price. The price of ethereum edged lower this morning to $2,454.23 as of 8:19 a.m. ET.
Crypto, gold, and silver prices are all following a similar pattern this morning: stronger openings than yesterday are giving way as mounting expectations that the Fed will raise rates later this month weigh on prices.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there's currently a 66.4% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points later this month, and a 33.6% expectation that it will leave rates unchanged. Just last week, the opposite was true: economists estimated a 60.4% chance the Fed would leave rates unchanged and a 39.6% chance rates would rise.
#chance #Bitcoin #opened #opening
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) opened at $78,559.11 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 1.1% higher than Monday's opening price. As of 8:19 a.m. ET this morning, the price of bitcoin fell to $77,945.97.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) opened at $2,467.13 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, up 2% from Monday's opening price. The price of ethereum edged lower this morning to $2,454.23 as of 8:19 a.m. ET.
Crypto, gold, and silver prices are all following a similar pattern this morning: stronger openings than yesterday are giving way as mounting expectations that the Fed will raise rates later this month weigh on prices.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there's currently a 66.4% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points later this month, and a 33.6% expectation that it will leave rates unchanged. Just last week, the opposite was true: economists estimated a 60.4% chance the Fed would leave rates unchanged and a 39.6% chance rates would rise.
#chance #Bitcoin #opened #opening
2 months ago
Some offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us, which may affect which products we write about, but not our recommendations. See our Advertiser Disclosure.
Gold (GC=F) December futures opened at $4,498.70 per troy ounce on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, up 0.4% from Monday's closing price. The price of gold is down this morning at $4,432.20 per troy ounce as of 7:56 a.m. ET.
Stubborn inflation, continually propelled by the ongoing conflict in Iran, is keeping a lid on gold prices. Recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that the Fed has "work to do" on price control, plus renewed attacks in the Middle East, are raising rate-hike expectations ahead of the Fed's meeting later this month.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there's currently a 66.4% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points later this month, and a 33.6% expectation they will leave rates unchanged. Just one week ago, the script was flipped, as economists estimated a 60.4% chance the Fed would leave rates unchanged and a 39.6% chance rates would rise.
Higher interest rates are a natural headwind for gold prices since the precious metal doesn't pay interest.
#rates #leave
Gold (GC=F) December futures opened at $4,498.70 per troy ounce on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, up 0.4% from Monday's closing price. The price of gold is down this morning at $4,432.20 per troy ounce as of 7:56 a.m. ET.
Stubborn inflation, continually propelled by the ongoing conflict in Iran, is keeping a lid on gold prices. Recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that the Fed has "work to do" on price control, plus renewed attacks in the Middle East, are raising rate-hike expectations ahead of the Fed's meeting later this month.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there's currently a 66.4% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points later this month, and a 33.6% expectation they will leave rates unchanged. Just one week ago, the script was flipped, as economists estimated a 60.4% chance the Fed would leave rates unchanged and a 39.6% chance rates would rise.
Higher interest rates are a natural headwind for gold prices since the precious metal doesn't pay interest.
#rates #leave
