ETH is enjoying another stretch of relative strength, trading up as much as 7% this morning above $2,600, and still running around +4% on the day at the time of writing.
In this span, ETH outperformed a flat BTC (+0.33%) and warmer majors like SOL, HYPE, and ZEC (which are all roughly +2% over the past 24 hours).
The backdrop: Friday's CPI landed mixed, i.e. a hotter headline number softened by a cooler core reading. Markets seem to have shrugged this result off as already priced in, flipping the mood from Thursday's PPI-driven jitters back toward risk-on.
Secondary driver: This vibe shift led to buy pressure, the buy pressure led to a bounce, and the bounce led to a squeeze. As ETH shorts had become a crowded trade once more, that bounce forced hundreds of millions in liquidations, with one outsized position wipeout on Hyperliquid doing a lot of that damage alone.
What to watch: Traders are now betting the Fed will raise rates at next week's FOMC meeting. Odds jumped to the mid-to-high 80% range after Friday's data, up from around 70% the day before. If that rate hike happens and the Fed signals more are coming, ETH's rallying could stall. Yet if Fed Chair Warsh sounds less aggressive when he speaks afterward, ETH's strength could just as easily keep going.

#pressure #markets #hyperliquid

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% from the month before in August, the Labor Department estimated Sept. 11, in line with forecasters' expectations.
A spike in gas prices drove the increase, rising 3.9% over the month as the Iran war further limited the global oil supply. Over the year, prices for all items rose 3.4%, matching July's pace. That was still enough to surpass workers' paychecks, which rose on average 3.1% over the same period.
After reaching a peak of 9.1% in 2022, year-over-year inflation had made its way back to 2.4% at the start of 2026. It jumped to 3.4% in March driven by rising oil and gas prices following the start of the war. After hitting 4.2% in May, it slowed to 3.5% in June and to 3.4% in July.
It, along with the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, remain above the central bank's 2% annual target.
The Fed typically raises its benchmark for interest rates across the country to help tame inflation and lowers it to stimulate the job market. After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Aug. 28 policymakers' focus should be on rising prices and U.S. employers added a surprising 162,000 jobs last month, markets are betting on a rate hike after the Fed's next meeting on Sept. 16. However, one is not guaranteed.

#rising

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are down -0.27% this morning as escalating hostilities in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and sapping risk appetite.
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensified, with no clear path toward de-escalation in sight. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, while WTI crude climbed above $95 a barrel. The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian tankers on Tuesday in retaliation for attempts to strike a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles, according to Central Command. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles at Jordan and issuing a warning to ships in the Persian Gulf.
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#Iran #Stock #prices

The move represents a sharp reversal from the yen's weakness earlier in the summer, when the USD/JPY approached 165 and forced **** anese authorities to intervene in the foreign-exchange market.
The latest appreciation is increasingly being driven by expectations that the Bank of **** an (BoJ) is preparing to raise interest rates at its September meeting, while investors are also reassessing the outlook for US monetary policy. The BoJ is scheduled to meet next Thursday and Friday, with markets now pricing in a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase. More importantly, investors will be looking for guidance on whether the central bank could accelerate the pace of subsequent tightening.
U.S. consumer-price data due on Friday will provide an important signal ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting. The inflation figures have become particularly significant because the Fed's policy outlook remains unusually divided. Governor Christopher Waller has indicated that he could support keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to moderate, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has stressed that insufficient progress on inflation could warrant tighter policy.
From a technical perspective, the weekly chart points to a clear deterioration in the USD/JPY trend. The pair has broken below its ascending trend structure and is trading beneath both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of the Ichimoku Cloud index. This suggests that the medium-term bullish structure has weakened. The weekly RSI has also fallen below the neutral 50 threshold and is moving lower, indicating that bearish momentum is becoming more established.
The fundamental backdrop is becoming increasingly challenging for the USD/JPY bulls because the interest-rate differential that supported the yen carry trade for years is gradually narrowing.

#Friday #rates

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Gold (GC=F) December futures opened at $4,399 per troy ounce on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, down 0.9% from Tuesday's closing price. Gold moved back higher in early trading this morning to $4,438.20 per troy ounce as of 6:34 a.m. ET.
Exactly one week ago, our headline here was "Gold slips further as military actions escalate in Iran." And that's exactly the headline news yet again.
Oil prices (BZ=F) are currently over $100 a barrel, as gold opens at its lowest value in a week, following reports that the U.S. military destroyed five more Iranian oil tankers in response to Iranian attacks on U.S. warships:
U.S. Central Command (Centcom) announced late on Tuesday that American forces had destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, once again claiming that it was in response to the IRGC targeting a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles. Four of the carriers, M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1, and M/T Riesco, were destroyed in the Gulf of Oman. One of the carriers, M/T Derya, was struck near Kharg Island.

#Gold #military

US stocks sank on Thursday morning as oil prices and Treasury yields continued to climb and investors ******* sed fresh wholesale inflation data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 0.5%, with all three indexes deepening losses from the past three days.
Stocks have cooled this week as oil prices topped $105 per barrel after Iran targeted US Navy warships in the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict. The move higher in oil has helped support rising Treasury yields. The 10-year yield (^TNX) hit a three-year high on Wednesday after the Treasury Department announced it would buy up to $6 billion in longer-term debt.
President Trump said Wednesday that oil prices may not come down until after the midterm elections two months away. The ongoing US-Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns that an energy shock could flow into broader inflation and all but force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
On Thursday, wholesale inflation data showed producer prices rose on a monthly and yearly basis, largely in line with expectations, setting the stage for the government's consumer inflation report, due out Friday. The Producer Price Index rose 5.4% year-on-year, and 4.6% on a core basis.

#three

Jeff Klingelhofer, CFA, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager & Senior Research **** yst, Securitized **** ets at Aristotle Pacific didn't set out to be a bond guy but a launchpad at PIMCO, stops in Tokyo and London, and a Chicago MBA detour into a scrappy five-person hedge fund rewired how he thinks about fixed income. The internship stuck, with Klingelhofer building out Thornburg's taxable fixed income desk from employee #3 to Head of Investments, before joining Aristotle Pacific in 2024. The firm is a 15-year-old franchise (formerly Pacific **** et Management) now running roughly $16 billion and, as of July 30, three brand-new ETFs: the Aristotle Core Plus Income ETF (ARCP), the Aristotle Multi-Sector Income ETF (ARMS), and the Aristotle Short Term Income ETF (SDUR).
The pitch isn't about taking on more risk to boost returns but about capturing returns with minimal risk, and that means shopping across every fixed income silo instead of hunting inside one. Klingelhofer gives the example of February 2020, when American Airlines' corporate bond and its aircraft-backed EETC both priced at 3.75% with the same issuer, same tenor, same yield. A month later, COVID hit and the corporate bond cratered to 27 cents on the dollar while the EETC held at 65 cents. Same company, wildly different outcomes because Wall Street desks looked at each instrument in isolation instead of comparing across the capital stack. That's the whole Aristotle Pacific thesis, and it's why he sees the same mispricing setting up today in data center financing.
The three funds slot into that framework by risk level, with SDUR as a low-duration, active-credit alternative to cash, ARCP as a core-bond upgrade aiming to beat the Agg by 100-150bps, and ARMS as the full relative-value expression targeting 250bps over a cycle with real flexibility to shift credit quality. Macro-wise, Klingelhofer thinks the market is underestimating new Fed Chair Warsh, who, unlike his predecessor, inherits a purely high-inflation world with no disinflationary tailwind. It means the firm is positioning the funds slightly long duration as a hedge against credit risk elsewhere in the book. His closing advice to advisors was a cautionary and practical one, that they shouldn't expect Aristotle to work in every environment (no fund does), and to pair its bottom-up process with top-down managers like PIMCO so the two zig and zag differently throughout market cycles.
To learn more about Aristotle Pacific, go here, or you can learn more about their new ETFs here.

#pacific #same #fixed

WASHINGTON (AP) — Iran state media on Monday said a ballistic missile with improved capabilities was demonstrating a new doctrine: Tehran "will take action against any threat, even before it is carried out."
The report by Iran's state news agency repeatedly cited comments aired on state TV the day before by the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, who boasted of new missile capability and claimed it had been "tested" against a U.S. warship. But it was not clear whether what was tested was the missile the new report described, the solid-fueled Qassem Basir.
The U.S. on Saturday said ballistic missiles were launched at U.S. warships and it struck three Iranian oil tankers in response. Experts called the launch a dangerous escalation, noting that until then Iran's attacks at sea had targeted commercial shipping during six months of war. The U.S. said the warships evaded the attacks.
Iran's messaging in recent days has become more ***** ertive, and Monday's report said the Qassem Basir marks "a turning point in Iran's defense strategy." It described the missile as having greater range and accuracy and a half-ton warhead. The missile was unveiled last year, when it was described as having at least a 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) range.
Concerns about Iran's ballistic missile program were one of the stated reasons the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran early this year, sparking the war.

#missile #described #Iran #tested

CAIRO (AP) — The new head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council on Sunday said Tehran plans to announce an "exclusion zone" outside the Strait of Hormuz aimed at vessels it believes are attempting to transit the waterway.
Mohsen Rezaei's comments to Iran's state broadcaster came with few details, a day after the U.S. struck three Iranian oil tankers in response to Tehran launching ballistic missiles at U.S. warships. Experts called the launches a dangerous escalation after Iran's previous attacks at sea targeted commercial shipping.
The new zone should be announced in the coming days and weeks and "will begin from the line of the U.S. naval blockade, extend toward the Strait of Hormuz, and from this side continue into the Persian Gulf," Rezaei said. "Any ship that enters this area with the intention of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is identified will be placed on our sanctions list."
It is not clear where Iran defines the location of the weekslong U.S. blockade, which is aimed at Iranian ports and keeping Tehran from shipping out its oil. The U.S. military has said over 20 warships are supporting the blockade, which as of Sunday had redirected 92 commercial ships and disabled three.
The U.S. has been introducing new measures to increase the economic pain on Iran after negotiations collapsed and no end to the intermittent fighting appears in sight. Meanwhile, Iran continues to attack some ships trying to transit the strait, which has become an important source of leverage for Tehran in the war that began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes.

#strait

Marine pilots moving from the newly retired Harrier to the F-35 must unlearn old instincts.
The F-35 eases much of the physical work of flying, but gives pilots far more data to manage.
Former Harrier pilots say breaking those patterns takes repeated simulator training and practice.
The first time a former Marine Harrier pilot brings an F-35 fighter jet in to land on the deck of an amphibious warship, skills honed by hundreds of hours in the old jet might work against them in the new Lightning II.
The AV-8B Harrier, the Marine Corps' short take-off and vertical-landing fighter, saw its pilots carefully manage three different controls — one to control direction, an engine throttle, and a nozzle lever that directed engine thrust, allowing the aircraft to hover.

#harrier #pilots #former #fighter

SEOUL, Sept 7 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the country's newest destroyer would be part of a nuclear response system ‌and could deliver "annihilating retaliatory strikes", state media KCNA reported on Monday, ‌although it did not say whether the vessel would carry nuclear weapons.
North Korea has accelerated efforts to modernise its navy as Kim pursues a broader expansion of the country's nuclear-capable forces.
At a commissioning ceremony in the eastern port city of Wonsan on Sunday, Kim said the new ship's deployment to the sea east of the Korean Peninsula sent ‌a clear signal to North ⁠Korea's adversaries.
"The time has come for us to exercise our sovereignty at sea and under water," Kim said, according to KCNA.
The ⁠5,000-ton-class destroyer, the "Kang Kon", is the second warship of its class to enter service, following the commissioning of the "Choe Hyon" destroyer on North Korea's west coast about three months earlier, KCNA cited Kim as saying.

#north #destroyer #korean #seoul

On May 22, the Federal Reserve entered a new era, with President Donald Trump's handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, sworn in as the 17th Fed chair. It also marked a period of uncertainty amid this transition for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC).
Warsh has wasted little time setting a new tone as head of the central bank. He's done away with forward-looking guidance in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statements and declared "the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices."
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has declared that the FOMC will deliver price stability. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.
Though FOMC policymakers are bound to uphold the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, the latter is of far greater importance at the moment. Trailing 12-month inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven primarily by Trumpflation vis-à-vis tariffs and the Iran war.

#kevin #chair

This has been a history-packed year for Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) romping to new highs, and the largest-ever initial public offering taking shape. But the swearing in of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on May 22 arguably takes the cake.
Jerome Powell's successor vowed to lead a reform-oriented central bank and hasn't veered from that promise over the last three months. Since taking the reins, Warsh has shelved forward-looking guidance from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statements and commissioned five task forces to aid the Fed in its conduct of monetary policy.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Fed Chair Warsh just served up an inflation ultimatum for Wall Street. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.
But the biggest task at hand for Warsh and the FOMC is tackling persistently high inflation. While delivering his first annual speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Aug. 28, the new Fed chair completely shifted the central bank's entire focus on inflation in one sentence.

#warsh

CAIRO (AP) — The U.S. military on Saturday said it struck three Iranian oil tankers after Navy warships were targeted with missiles, warning that it would "if necessary, destroy Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet."
The strikes — a day after President Donald Trump sought to minimize the conflict as "small potatoes" — keep up a new tilt back toward fighting after six months of on-again, off-again war that began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Feb. 28. Both sides have sought to inflict both military and economic pain, and negotiations have collapsed.
The military's statement said a U.S. aircraft carrier and a destroyer evaded "multiple unprovoked Iranian attacks" while patrolling in the region and no U.S. personnel were hurt. It said two Iranian oil carriers were "permanently disabled" and the third, unladen one, was destroyed.
The U.S. statement said the tankers were part of a shadow network helping to fund Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard and its armed proxies in the region.
Earlier, Iranian state TV had said four U.S. missiles struck a tanker about six miles (10 kilometers) from Kharg Island, home to a terminal through which the country exports most of its oil. Kharg Island been repeatedly targeted during the war, including U.S. strikes on military sites there in March.

#kharg #struck #missiles

For the first time in recent memory, the market doesn't have much of an idea of what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at its September meeting. We're less than two weeks away from the Fed's decision, and investors aren't sure whether to expect a rate hike for the first time since 2023 or if the Fed will hold rates steady.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, which monitors how the market is pricing future interest rate movements, there's roughly a 40% chance that rates won't move and a 60% chance of a rate hike. Roughly half of the voting committee favors a hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh didn't offer any forward guidance at Jackson Hole last week. In short, there is considerable uncertainty.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
Because of this uncertainty, many investors feel it's time to pump the brakes on investing or do something different with new money. But there are some investments that make sense for long-term investors regardless of what the stock market is doing, or how much economic uncertainty there is. One of them is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT:VOO).

#time

Bitcoin news today shows the price rose more than 5% on September 3 to trade briefly above $82,000, as concerns about a Federal Reserve rate hike eased and Treasury yields fell. Fundstrat head of digital ******* ets Sean Farrell called the move important data worth respecting, while noting Bitcoin has bucked its historically weak September pattern over the past three years.
This is not simply a one-day rebound. It is the latest data point in a debate among strategists over whether the crypto bear market has already bottomed, a thesis complicated by volatile spot Bitcoin ETF flows and a seasonal track record that still favors caution.
DISCOVER: Upcoming Binance Listings
The token's move above $82,000 follows a 25% rally in August, a month strategists have flagged as a turning point after the Treasury Department's intervention in the bond market and ******* istance to ******* an helped lift both gold and crypto prices. Some of those August gains were erased when oil prices surged and hawkish remarks from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh raised concerns about the central bank's September rate decision, before Fed governor Christopher Waller signaled openness to holding rates steady if inflation continues to ease.
Despite the rebound, Bitcoin remains roughly 7% lower year to date and about 35% below the all-time high of more than $126,000 it reached in early October 2025. September itself carries an unfavorable base rate: Farrell noted Bitcoin has posted negative returns in nine of the past 15 years during the month, though he cautioned that seasonality is a helpful data point rather than a foolproof trading system. For more on how Treasury-yield dynamics have shaped this resilience, see Bitcoin's macro pressure and resilience, and on the ETF side, BlackRock's IBIT and the current price setup.

#september #treasury #point #farrell

Sept 4 (Reuters) - Global money market funds attracted significant inflows in the week through September 2, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a selloff ‌in global bonds prompted investors to increase cash holdings and favour shorter-duration ‌debt.
Investors added a net $46.1 billion to global money market funds, the biggest weekly inflow since August 5, according to LSEG Lipper data.
The United States struck Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran said it had targeted U.S. **** ets across the region. Brent crude climbed to a nearly 1-1/2-month high of $97.62 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns.
Rate ‌worries also resurfaced after Federal ⁠Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said last week that the central bank would "have work to do" if policymakers were not confident underlying ⁠inflation was returning to its 2% target.
Meanwhile, global equity funds attracted net inflows of $6.65 billion, more than reversing the previous week's $6.13 billion in outflows.

#billion #investors #attracted #inflation

Updated Sept 03, 2026, 2:56 pm EDT / Original Sept 03, 2026, 8:58 am EDT
Food stocks are in a bit of trouble. As shoppers grapple with elevated inflation, the cautious consumer backdrop has sparked investor concerns over the outlook for some industry giants.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh raised the markets’ expectations for a September rate hike. Not so fast, three Fed officials suggested this week.

#rights

As of 11:46 AM ET, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) is up 1.35% to 26,572 as tech shares recover from earlier pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) has climbed 1.20% to 53,699, and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) is trading 1.01% higher to 7,744 as traders eye falling Treasury yields.
Gold is up 2.34% to $4,489.99, and the 10-Year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.75%. Industrials lead sector gainers, with financial services and consumer cyclical stocks also seeing significant intraday strength as investors rotate into growth-oriented names.
Broadcom shares dropped, despite beating ******* yst expectations in yesterday's earnings. Snowflake's Q2 results were a different story: The stock soared over 20% this morning after a blowout quarter. Robinhood Markets gained following ******* yst upgrades. Nvidia gained on news that it will acquire artificial intelligence (AI) platform Hugging Face.
Major U.S. indexes gained this morning as markets reassessed the probability of a September rate hike. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he'd lean toward holding rates steady unless there are any major inflation surprises. His stance, which seemed to contrast with Chairman Kevin Warsh's emphasis on reducing stubborn inflation, reduced some of the pressure on U.S. Treasuries.
Investors will be watching tomorrow's labor market report and further inflation data due next week closely, as both will impact the Fed committee's decision when they meet on Sept. 15 and 16. Interest rate decisions can cause short-term headwinds for the stock market, and volatility is likely to increase in the second half of this year. However, unchecked inflation can erode long-term value and do more damage to your portfolio than higher rates.

#major

The crypto market—including Bitcoin and altcoins like XRP, Ethereum, and BNB—is riding a bullish wave of momentum in the U.S. stock market, seemingly triggered by fresh comments from the Federal Reserve, and sending short sellers to goblintown.
Bitcoin punched back above $80,000 on Thursday, trading near $80,270 and up close to 3% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is closing in on $2,500, up 2.2% today, while XRP is up a whopping 6% in the last 24 hours. The spike has accounted for at least $327 million in liquidated short positions in the last hour alone, and more than $415 million in the past 24 hours.
The catalyst appears to be comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who, in prepared remarks at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview, said he'd be "inclined to support" holding the Fed's benchmark interest rate at its current level if upcoming inflation data keeps improving.
Traders took the hint. The odds of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting fell to 50.4%, down from 63.2% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool, a market gauge that estimates the odds of Fed moves from futures prices. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs economy-wide that had touched its highest level since November 2023 a day earlier, dropped to around 4.73%.
It's a sharp reversal from a week ago. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole keynote had knocked Bitcoin down to $76,877 and pushed hike odds toward 56%. Thursday's bounce puts Bitcoin back at a level it's tested—and failed to hold—several times this year.

#short #back

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Christopher Waller stood up at a Reuters event Thursday and paraphrased John Lennon at a room full of bond traders. "Give disinflation a chance," the Fed governor said. "We can wait one meeting." Somewhere a rates desk put down its sandwich.
Stocks took it as a gift. At noon, the S&P 500 had climbed just over 1%, the Nasdaq 1.4%, and the Dow tacked on 640 points for a 1.2% gain and its best session since Aug. 4. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.75% after spiking Wednesday.
The Fed's benchmark, the overnight rate it charges banks to borrow from each other, currently sits in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, and markets have spent weeks bracing for it to go higher on Sept. 16. Higher rates make a boring government bond paying you nearly 5% look awfully good next to stocks so we can forgive the equity jockeys who have been deprived of good news for a few moons from getting a little giddy when Waller signaled he'd hold if August inflation behaves and knocked hike odds from 63.2% to 50.4%, per CME FedWatch. Even if those traders are rejoicing on what's basically now a coin flip.
July's vote was 9 to 3 to hold, with Beth Hammack in Cleveland, Neel Kashkari in Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan in Dallas all wanting a quarter point more, the most dissents at a single meeting since 2016. Not one governor joined them. Warsh, for all his talk about inflation being a choice, has voted to sit still both times he's run the room.

#next #bond #traders

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Mortgage rates hit their highest level in over a year as a global bond selloff intensified and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled in a closely watched speech that the central bank may soon need to raise benchmark interest rates.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.71% this week through Wednesday — the highest since June 2025 — according to Freddie Mac data, up from 6.66% a week earlier. Other measures of mortgage rates have shown an even bigger jump. Mortgage rates on Wednesday averaged 6.91%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely track, has risen sharply in recent weeks as investors worldwide grow more jittery about inflation.
In a speech last Friday, Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to reducing inflation, noting "inflation is running above our 2% target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices."

#year #warsh #highest #week

Investors have been privy to several history-making moments this year, including record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), and the largest-ever initial public offering in Wall Street's history.
However, the biggest milestone of all might be the swearing-in of Kevin Warsh on May 22 as just the 17th head of the central bank.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
But President Donald Trump's handpicked successor to Jerome Powell became Fed chair at one of the most challenging times throughout history. The trailing 12-month inflation rate reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, putting Warsh on a similar collision course with Trump over interest rates that his predecessor, Powell, often found himself on.
Thus far, President Trump has given Warsh a pass on direct criticism -- but the same can't be said of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

#powell #Trump

The greenback has begun the month with its momentum challenged by the more recent labor data. The August ADP report was 38,000 compared to the 48,000 report that economists expected, and also showed a loss of jobs in manufacturing as well as professional and business services. The report supports signs of cooling hiring, and was lower for Treasury yields. Even with the reports, futures still hint at a 60%–65% likelihood of a rate hike in September by the Fed. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also kept a hawkish stance at Jackson Hole with his speech, keeping expectations of a rate hike high. Friday's employment data will be the last big report with the potential to change expectations, and a weak report will drop the likelihood of a rate hike.
The euro still supports a firm policy with eurozone inflation reaching 3.3% in August from July's 2.9%. This increase was largely due to the Iran conflict and the resulting energy costs. The markets have priced in the expected 25 basis point increase with the deposit rate most likely to reach 2.50% for this hike. With core inflation reaching 2.4%, a more cautious slow pace of tightening is expected, rather than a prolonged hiking period.
Sterling is facing the harder of the two domestics. Gilt yields for the ten year have reached their highest level since 2007 at 5.294% with energy costs, inflation, and fiscal concerns and spending all reaching a high prior to the October budget. The BoE is still expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in September, but a 25 basis point hike is expected in the coming year at later dates.
The movement of the FX theme for September 3 is expected to be data-dependent. Soft U.S. hiring diminishes the conviction of the Fed Funds rate hike, and the ECB retains the most compelling case for forward tightening. In the meantime, fiscal stress is holding back GBP, despite higher than desired inflation.
For September 3, the FX theme appears to be increasingly data dependent. Soft U.S. hiring diminishes the conviction of the Fed Funds rate hike, and the ECB maintains the most persuasive case for front-running tightening.

#hike #expected #inflation #reaching

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s concern about rising prices won’t be ***** uaged by new central bank data released on Wednesday.
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There’s no “fundamental justification” for the stock market bounce today.

#company

Sept 02, 2026, 2:29 pm EDT
The world’s largest government bond market is watching investors flee as losses pile higher. Some investors say Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh must come to the rescue.
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The software maker said annual recurring revenue, a closely watched measure of its subscription business, rose 30%.

#reserve #jones

Kalshi is pricing a 25-basis-point September rate increase at 59% against 42% for no change. Other reported measures put the probability at about 60% to 68% before the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On the other hand, Fed rate-cut odds have dropped to just 1%, as all hope of a possible cut fades.
That range creates a clear question for risk ******* ets, including Bitcoin. If the Federal Reserve holds rates while market pricing continues to favor an increase, the difference between the expected outcome and the decision could prompt a reassessment of bearish positioning.
A hold alone would not establish a bullish outcome; the market response would also depend on the Fed's accompanying message. A hold, accompanied by a dovish speech from new SEC Chair Kevin Warsh, could provide a boost to the crypto market.
SOURCE: Kalshi
The repricing follows a public policy split. Trump said that US interest rates were too high and said he respected Kevin Warsh and his responsibility to make the necessary decision. He had previously said he would not have selected Warsh to lead the Fed if he wanted interest-rate increases.

#market #rate #kalshi

Kamel told Julian to pay off his $9,700 car loan, build a $30,000 emergency fund, and cap housing payments at 25% of take-home pay.
At a 5.98% 15-year fixed rate and record home prices, Julian's $85,000 salary supports only about $1,400 monthly, which is too little for a duplex.
The 15-year mortgage rate is Julian's biggest obstacle, and a drop back toward February's 5.35% low would unlock more buying power than more saving would.
Read More: Learn 7 ways to generate income with a $1,000,000+ portfolio (sponsor)
"All of a sudden you're a bajillionaire" is how the Ramsey Show hosts mocked the pitch a 23-year-old caller named Julian brought them: buy a duplex or triplex as a first home, let tenants cover the mortgage, and skip straight to landlord wealth. Julian said he had about $70,000 in cash, earned about $85,000 a year, still owed $9,700 on a 2024 car loan, and wanted to put at least 10% down because his uncle had told him renters would pay the note. Hosts George Kamel and Jade Warshaw took the call in Dave Ramsey's absence.

#julian #year #home

First Eagle Investment Management, an investment management company, released its Q2 2026 investor update for "First Eagle Global Fund". The letter can be downloaded here. Easing tensions in the Middle East led to a strong rally in risk markets in Q2. The S&P 500 Index rose 15.2%, while the MSCI EAFE Index gained 10.8%. Growth stocks outperformed, with the MSCI World Growth Index significantly exceeding value returns. A notable shift in U.S. interest rate expectations followed Kevin Warsh's appointment as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Despite the optimistic market environment, concerns about fiscal constraints and limited policy flexibility remain. Tighter credit spreads and elevated equity valuations reflect strong demand for financial ****** ets, with household wealth in equities at a post-WWII high. Earnings expectations are buoyant, driven by AI infrastructure developments. Against this backdrop, Global Fund A Shares returned 2.86% in Q2 2026, with emerging markets and developed Europe as the primary contributors. Developed Asia (excluding ****** an) was the only detractor, and ****** an lagged. Information technology and financials led among equity sectors, while materials and energy detracted. The fund underperformed relative to the MSCI World Index during this period. Also, check the fund's top five holdings to see its best picks in 2026.
In its second-quarter 2026 investor letter, First Eagle Global Fund highlighted Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a leading performance contributor. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of Google, offers various platforms and services, including online search and advertising, cloud solutions, and artificial intelligence. On August 31, 2026, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) closed at $335.41 per share, reflecting a market capitalization of $4.13 trillion. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) posted a one-month return of -11.22%, while its shares gained 57.19% over the past 52 weeks.
First Eagle Global Fund stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) in its Q2 2026 investor letter:
"Shares of Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)—the parent company of Google and YouTube—rose during the quarter as contracted future revenues from cloud operations continued to be strong, amplified by explosive demand for AI infrastructure, strong AI-focused memory chip production and resilient digital-ad sales. Google's full-stack AI solution underpins prospective long-term momentum for the company, with an anticipated near-term boost from hosting OpenAI's latest generative AI model."

#goog #eagle

First Eagle Investment Management, an investment management company, released its Q2 2026 investor update for "First Eagle Global Fund". The letter can be downloaded here. Easing tensions in the Middle East led to a strong rally in risk markets in Q2. The S&P 500 Index rose 15.2%, while the MSCI EAFE Index gained 10.8%. Growth stocks outperformed, with the MSCI World Growth Index significantly exceeding value returns. A notable shift in U.S. interest rate expectations followed Kevin Warsh's appointment as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Despite the optimistic market environment, concerns about fiscal constraints and limited policy flexibility remain. Tighter credit spreads and elevated equity valuations reflect strong demand for financial ***** ets, with household wealth in equities at a post-WWII high. Earnings expectations are buoyant, driven by AI infrastructure developments. Against this backdrop, Global Fund A Shares returned 2.86% in Q2 2026, with emerging markets and developed Europe as the primary contributors. Developed Asia (excluding ***** an) was the only detractor, and ***** an lagged. Information technology and financials led among equity sectors, while materials and energy detracted. The fund underperformed relative to the MSCI World Index during this period. Also, check the fund's top five holdings to see its best picks in 2026.
In its second-quarter 2026 investor letter, First Eagle Global Fund highlighted Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM). Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) is a cloud computing company that offers Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together. On August 31, 2026, Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) closed at $257.54 per share. Over the past month, Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) returned 36.58%, and its shares are up 3.16% over the past year. Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) has a market capitalization of $211.96 billion.
First Eagle Global Fund stated the following regarding Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) in its Q2 2026 investor letter:
"Despite reporting better-than-expected results for its most recent quarter, shares of enterprise software developer Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) were weak during the quarter because of ongoing industrywide concerns that generative AI will trigger an exodus from software applications. We believe that Salesforce's technology serves as an economic moat to the potential disruption of AI because its products are embedded as the foundational system of record for its customers. In addition, we continue to believe that the company is well positioned to grow and scale its Agentforce platform over time."

#NYSE #global #index #management