Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Aug. 28 keynote speech at Jackson Hole to drive home the point that inflation is broader than the headline rate suggests, speaking directly to the everyday experiences of a rising price level that most people have been having for a while now. Specifically, Warsh said 54% of the 199 items in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, had risen by more than 3% in the 12 months through summer 2026, versus 32% of those items in the two decades before the pandemic.
That's a bit of an awkward situation for the companies that make up the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), whose stellar growth in 2026 has been built on profits that are much higher than average. In short, the next thing the market will need to deal with is, in all probability, a Federal Reserve that's keen on making businesses pay more for each dollar of borrowing, which could in turn end up leading to investors paying less for each dollar of profit ***** ociated with the ***** ets they buy.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Here's how that could unfold, and soon.
After the Sept. 11 inflation report showed that consumer prices are still rising at a faster-than-desired pace, the odds of a rate hike by the Fed at its meeting on Sept. 16 were 90%, per the CME FedWatch. Warsh also said in his speech that he'd struggle to call the current set of financial conditions restrictive. That obviously means that investors need to brace for higher rates.
#inflation
That's a bit of an awkward situation for the companies that make up the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), whose stellar growth in 2026 has been built on profits that are much higher than average. In short, the next thing the market will need to deal with is, in all probability, a Federal Reserve that's keen on making businesses pay more for each dollar of borrowing, which could in turn end up leading to investors paying less for each dollar of profit ***** ociated with the ***** ets they buy.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Here's how that could unfold, and soon.
After the Sept. 11 inflation report showed that consumer prices are still rising at a faster-than-desired pace, the odds of a rate hike by the Fed at its meeting on Sept. 16 were 90%, per the CME FedWatch. Warsh also said in his speech that he'd struggle to call the current set of financial conditions restrictive. That obviously means that investors need to brace for higher rates.
#inflation
2 months ago
