Well, there's not much to say about this lineup. David Peterson throws with his left hand. The Braves don't have Lane Thomas on hand anymore, so it's basically your standard lineup with Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim bringing up the rear.
This is the same lineup the Braves used in what ended up being that 12-2 game against the Phillies. Given that Peterson probably won't last long given his inefficiency, the Braves may be hoping for a similar result.
I guess I'll talk about Ozzie Albies. He's hitting cleanup for the 21st time this season. His season is basically tanking. He started out with a near-.400 wOBA in April while running an average xwOBA, had a poor May, an okay-ish June, and then ran another huge xwOBA overperformance on a bad xwOBA in July. Since then, it's been absolutely grim. In August, he had a .275 wOBA and .283 xwOBA. In September, he's down to a .212 wOBA and .218 xwOBA. As has also been the case for a while, Albies is no longer terrorizing lefties. In his first seven seasons, he had five where he hit lefties super-well, and one of the ones where he didn't was a tiny-sample 2020 where he was hurt. In both 2024 and 2025, his xwOBA against lefties dwindled to an okay .325ish. This year? He's down to .282. He's only posted an xwOBA at or above .300 against lefties this season in April and July. In September so far, it's .171. There's not really that much time for Albies to change the script of his season, but this is a really disappointing follow-up to 2025 and it's going to be the third straight year where Albies turns in an underwhelming season.
Anyway, should we do batter versus pitcher while waiting for the Cubs to post their lineup? Sure, I guess. These guys are very familiar with Peterson, after all. Amazingly, neither Drake Baldwin nor Mauricio Dubon have ever faced Peterson, and Kim only has four PAs against him, but everyone else has somewhere between 12 and 30. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson have destroyed Peterson in their careers, and Riley's been fine, but everyone else has struggled a bit. Add this all up, and you get a .318 wOBA and .347 xwOBA in 141 career head-to-head PAs.
As for the Cubs, well…

#peterson #woba #well

The lineups are out for tonight's series-opening showdown between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. There's no major shakeup but there is a return to the lineup for one familiar face after he started Thursday's contest on the bench.
Ozzie Albies is back in the starting lineup for the Braves. Here's how the rest of Atlanta's lineup is looking:
Sale takes the mound tonight at TruistPark 💪 pic.twitter.com/sZRngGjbvQ
Ozzie has hit .249/.304/.411 so far this season with a wOBA of .311 and a wRC+ of 95. His big triple against the Rays on Thursday helped push Atlanta past Tampa Bay and gave them what could amount to being a very crucial win if all continues to go well for the Braves as far as this particular series is concerned.
Outside of that, there are no major changes from yesterday and in fact, this is the same group of nine batters that squared off against Aaron Nola last week. The bottom of the order is slightly different but the players remain the same. For what it's worth, Ronald Acuña Jr. has an OPS of 1.076 against Nola in 56 pat-bats. Austin Riley has done a similar level of damage as well with an OPS of 1.111 over 62 ABs. Mike Yastrzemski and Drake Baldwin have both been successful as well (1.046 and 1.056 OPS, respectively) against Nola but they both have much smaller sample sizes (16 and 8 ABs, respectively) to go with. Let's see if that turns into a factor during tonight's contest.

#lineup #major

"What are the Braves doing at shortstop?" Kind of the recently-eternal question, after the Swanson swan song, Orlando Arcia's one decent season, and then The Issues since. Seriously, from 2024-2026, the Braves are not only dead last in shortstop fWAR (1.3 in 1673 PAs), but they're so far down that even the 29th-place team, the Rockies (always the Rockies) has more than double the Braves' shortstop production (2.7). While Braves' shortstops have been good defensively (seventh in defensive value in that span, thanks Nick Allen!), they haven't hit at all, with a 64 wRC+ putting them in their own sad tier, well below the Guardians, Rockies, and Rays, whose shortstop wRC+s over the past three seasons are hanging out in the low-to-mid 70s.
Jim Jarvis, de facto starting shortstop against right-handers for a fair while now, is the latest contributor to this value-bleed, and is now going away.
The #Braves today recalled OF Brewer Hicklen to Atlanta and optioned INF Jim Jarvis to Triple-A Gwinnett.
Jarvis was a fun story, and presented as a fun guy. Acquired as a non-return for Rafael Montero last year, he fared well in Atlanta's minor league system. He then got a decent run in Atlanta in July, and put together a 111 wRC+. It wasn't at all supported by his inputs, but even those inputs were decent (.336 wOBA, .308 xwOBA).
But then the calendar turned to August, and Jarvis languished. In 42 August PAs, he has a -36 wRC+ (yes that's a negative sign) and a .208 xwOBA. Sure, he's underhitting his xwOBA by nearly .100, but a .208 xwOBA is… really bad. Put this together with shortstop defense that was above-average but not awesome thanks to some goofs on simple plays, and you have Jim Jarvis, 124 major league PAs, a 56 wRC+, and -0.1 fWAR.

#jarvis

The Toronto Blue Jays have plenty of recognizable stars, but one of their most valuable players is quietly putting together an outstanding stretch in MLB.
Alejandro Kirk has been one of the best offensive catchers in baseball since the All-Star break, and his numbers make a compelling case that he deserves far more attention.
MORE: Astros call up top prospect, make multiple changes to rotation
Aug 18, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk (30) rounds third base to score a run against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Among qualified catchers since July 17, Kirk ranks first with a .361 batting average, .439 on-base percentage and .969 OPS. His .530 slugging percentage ranks second, while his .350 xwOBA ranks third.

#ranks #make

There's no such thing as a bad one-year deal. It's an old baseball axiom that has remained true for quite some time, even if some cases tend to test that theory. This is one such case, as it's become very clear that the Ha-Seong Kim one-year deal hasn't worked out anywhere near the level to where both parties figured it would once they agreed to the one-year, $20 million deal during the offseason.
During the series recap for the Diamondbacks series, I mentioned that Ha-Seong Kim had made "progress" after he recorded his fourth RBI of the season during that blowout loss on Saturday to Arizona. Not his fourth RBI of the game — his fourth of the season. I would never lie to you on the internet, so here's video proof!
This was his first RBI since June 3 and that only came after he had what looks like a hot streak in comparison back in late-May, which is when he picked up two RBI in a three-game span. That is absolutely anemic in terms of counting stats.
Somehow, Kim's four RBI don't have him in last place among hitters with at least 80 plate appearances. Four other players have made at least 80 plate appearances and have produced fewer RBI than Kim has done so far this season. With that being said, some of the stats that Kim has put up this season have truly got to be seen to be believed.
Among batters with at least 80 plate appearances, he's last in Isolated Power (.000), he's last in BABIP (.094), he's last in batting average (.066), he's next-to-last in On-Base Percentage (.165), he's last in slugging percentage (.066), he's last in wOBA (.126), he's in a three-way tie for next-t0-last in xwOBA (.207) and he's last in wRC+ with a scarcely-believable 29 wRC+. This is astonishing.

#year #deal #least #plate

What can you really say about the Braves' lineup at this point… or ever? Mauricio Dubon is back in left field tonight, and hitting fifth.
Dubon had a really fun time in June while the rest of the team was imploding offensively, with a .378 wOBA and .368 xwOBA. Unfortunately, he's more or less fallen apart as the team clambered out of its doldrums, with wOBAs and xwOBAs in the .280 range irrespective of how you slice and dice the six-ish weeks since June ended. But, here he is, hitting fifth. It doesn't really matter, but Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Riley have been on a tear in August, so this is a case where the Braves' lineup construction is relatively staid, even though we've seen it get relatively reactionary earlier in the season with regards to other things.
The Twins lineup gives Martin Perez a steady diet of righties to contend with:
It's kind of an interesting array. Luke Keaschall will hit leadoff for the first time all season; this will be his second career game in that spot. Kaelen Culpepper has hit seventh a few times and ninth a few times, but never eighth (until this game).
This Twins lineup has pretty solid numbers up and down on paper. Hopefully the Perez pachinko comes up favorable for the Braves… or they just crush Bailey Ober.

#lineup #dubon #time

Jim Jarvis currently has a notable line, at least compared to earlier in the season. He started out massively outhitting his xwOBA, but that's done now — he's at a .274 wOBA (69 wRC+) and .271 xwOBA. His defense-plus-positional adjustment rounds to zero runs above average. Combine that with 0.1 runs of above-average baserunning (sadly it's not 0.0), and he's at 0.0 fWAR.
But, the Braves don't have too many other options. Ha-Seong Kim, well, even the Braves won't go that far. (And, the more Jarvis plays, the more time Kim is likely going to need to get back into the swing of things.) The other obvious option is just playing Mauricio Dubon at shortstop, but the Braves haven't committed to that either.
So, when we get to the playoffs (barring an epic collapse, which lurks on the peripheries of probability), will the Braves still be of the inclination to give Jarvis a start? What do you think?

#xwoba #seong

For 114 games this season, Ozzie Albies has been in the starting lineup. Sometimes he's hit third, sometimes he's hit sixth, he had a long stretch hitting second… but he's been in there.
Tonight, for the first time in 2026, Albies won't be in there. He gives way to Mauricio Dubon, who will slide over to the keystone and bat fifth.
The rest of the lineup is more or less as expected, with the Braves loading up on lefties against right-hander Janson Junk, a day after they loaded up on righties against right-hander Eury Perez. Austin Riley remains set in the eight-hole, as the Braves double up on lefties after Dubon.
Given that Junk has already made one start against the Braves this year, there's no lack of familiarity here, though neither Drake Baldwin nor Jim Jarvis have stood in against him yet. And, really, we're not talking a lot of PAs for the other seven guys, as Mike Yastrzemski leads the way with nine. The collective line is just a .255 xwOBA in 34 PAs… but it does come with a .340 wOBA. Both Riley and Dominic Smith hit three-run homers off Junk earlier this year.
The Marlins still don't have a lineup, which always seems to be the case — they are definitely one of the latest lineup-posters in MLB and have been for quite a few years now. I'll update this if they ever put one out.

#junk #albies #sometimes #lefties

Up until July 20th, Yankees trade acquisition Ryan Weathers was sporting a disappointing 4.40 ERA in 102.1 innings. His four-seam fastball was getting battered, and he was allowing too many home runs to have a chance at sustained success. Baseball, however, is a game of adjustments. The talented left-hander has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts and 18.2 frames, with 13 hits, no homers, five walks, and 17 punchouts. He seems like a completely different pitcher, much less vulnerable, and has dropped his season ERA to 3.79 over that span.
What changed? Well, if you have a fastball that has surrendered a .628 xSLG (expected slugging percentage) and a .408 xwOBA, you just don't throw it very often, as our own Peter Brody suggested a few weeks ago. The writer prescribed more sinkers and fewer four-seamers as the recipe for success. Let's see Weathers' pitch mix in his last start on Tuesday, when he held the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless for six frames, conceding just four hits and a walk while fanning six:
Changeup: 30 percent
Sinker: 25 percent
Sweeper: 24 percent

#weathers #fastball #frames

On Saturday evening, Jeff Passan broke the news that the White Sox (58-52) have acquired starting pitcher Luis Castillo from the Mariners (54-58). In exchange, Seattle received reliever Seranthony Dominguez, Triple-A outfielder Nolan Jones, and Double-A catcher Boston Smith.
Castillo, 33, is set to join the starting rotation on the South Side. In 2026, Castillo has posted a 5.06 ERA and a 4.57 FIP in 99 2/3 innings. It has been a down year for Castillo, who has only accumulated 0.6 fWAR this season. Overall, Castillo has put together an impressive career, posting a 3.65 ERA, a 3.78 FIP, and 27.0 fWAR across 10 seasons. Castillo is a three-time All-Star who finished fifth in the American League Cy Young race in 2023.
Castillo's numbers have declined significantly since last year (3.54 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 2.6 fWAR in 180 2/3 innings). This decline is noticeable, and the White Sox are aware that they are not acquiring the type of player that Castillo previously was. Castillo's fastball still has plenty of legs (95.3 mph on average, 64th percentile, slightly up from 2025). However, the effectiveness of his breaking ****** has declined sharply. Castillo's primary breaking ball and his second-most common pitch is his slider, which held opposing hitters to a measly .271 wOBA in 2025. By contrast, in 2026, batters have a .352 wOBA against it, a sizable increase. Repairing that slider is probably task No. 1 with regard to getting Castillo closer to his 2017-2025 self.
Castillo is being paid $24.15 million in 2026, and he is under team control through 2027, when he will earn the same salary. Most likely, Castillo will become a free agent at the end of the 2027 season. If Castillo pitches 180 innings in 2027, an option for 2028 will vest, and he will earn $25 million, but the White Sox would likely avoid that.
Domínguez, 31, is the only active major leaguer going to the Mariners in this trade. Domínguez has posted a 3.99 ERA and a 4.64 FIP in 38 1/3 innings as a reliever on the South Side this year. Prior to this season, the White Sox signed him to a two-year, $20 million contract. Entering the season, Domínguez was expected to be a high-leverage reliever, but he has not quite lived up to the hype.

#castillo #million

Yesterday, Ryan noted the Seattle Mariners had the chance to do something dumb. The option remains on the table tonight, particularly with Shohei Ohtani receiving a rest day. Against the resurgent Roki Sasaki and the Los Angeles Dodgers, ***** uming simplicity is simple-minded itself. But Bryan Woo is facing his greatest enemy, with nothing to do with Kyle Tucker or Max Muncy. The .304/.344/.479 line he's allowed on the road, with a .354 wOBA, is about equivalent to facing Muncy, Randy Arozarena, or Ketel Marte every single plate appearance. He should consider simply returning to magic fastballs instead of these miserable, mundane ones.
With only four games remaining between today and the trade deadline Monday, Seattle needs every bit of clarity they can find.
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m.
TV: Mariners.TV
Radio: Ol' Reliable

#ohtani

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - MAY 22: Gleyber Torres #25 of the Detroit Tigers plays against the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park on May 22, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
The MLB trade deadline is less than two weeks away. As teams look to fortify their rosters for the stretch run, fantasy managers can help their squads by scouring the waiver wire for reinforcements. Let’s highlight five players to consider adding who are still available in the majority of Yahoo leagues.
Torres has been limited to 46 games this season because of injury. He recently missed over a month with an oblique ailment. Across three games since making his return, he is 3-for-11 with two walks and a run scored. He continues to show a good eye at the plate, recording a 15.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate for the season. That has enabled him to record a .351 wOBA. The Tigers will play six games next, including three at the Athletics’ hitter-friendly park. Don’t hesitate to add Torres if you need help at second base.
Sasaki is coming off a good start against the Yankees in which he gave up one unearned run over 5 2/3 innings. The most encouraging stat from that outing was that he didn’t give up a home run for the first time since the middle of May. In Week 19, he is lined up to make a start at home against the Mariners. He has been good there, recording a 3.69 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP and 26.4% strikeout rate in Los Angeles. Consider him one of the better streaming options to target.
Ewing is swinging a hot bat, hitting 17-for-53 (.321) with two home runs and four doubles across his last 12 games. He even stole three bases during that span, giving him a total of 11 steals over 63 games. After showing an adept skill of getting on base throughout his time in the minors, he is batting .274 with a .345 OBP with the Mets. New York is slated to play seven games next week, so Ewing will have plenty of opportunities to provide fantasy value.

#good #rate #ewing

Mets get Francisco Lindor trade update that includes the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees and Braves originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
It would be crazy to see the New York Yankees ever make a move for Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets. However, the Mets have also made it known that they are more than willing to move on from certain players over the next few weeks. Whether that means they actually move a superstar like Lindor remains to be seen, but nothing has suggested they won't.
Right now, the Mets just have to shed some salary, and the Yankees could benefit from that. However, according to the latest from ESPN's Jeff Passan, there are many other teams who could be potential fits, including the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Atlanta Braves.
"Lindor is 32 and is off to a slower start this season, but most of that is hit luck as his expected wOBA last year and this year are almost identical; he is two points better this season. His raw tools aren't the selling point, either: His arm strength, sprint speed and bat speed are all average to below and have been for a couple of years.
"The ability to be good at everything while playing an elite shortstop has been the key to his career, and those things are still alive, even if a bit diminished so far this year. It's very likely we'll see positive regression from the rest of the season, and I'm not even worried about the next few years, but mapping his career out until 2031 is a different question altogether. Best fits: Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Braves," Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote.

#yankees #season

As we continue our series we get to the most difficult position to profile. It is difficult because we entered into this series with some established rules. Players need to play a considerable amount at the position (you've seen some players qualify at more than one position) and they need to record at least 120 outs. Yordan Alvarez is the only player on the Astros to qualify in left field, but he does not play a ton of left field. So, later in the article we will create a player we will name Joey Dezenfido Jr. to tally up essentially what the Astros have been getting in left field.
We could have included Taylor Trammel, but he is playing more center these days and that will become important in the next piece. There can be no doubt that Yordan Alvarez is the best offensive player in the American League. Whether that makes him an MVP is certainly open to debate. Usually MVPs contribute with both the bat and the glove and there are certainly worthy candidates on other teams that do that. However, today we are looking only at offense.
Looking at the triumverate of Lamont Wade Jr, Joey Loperfido, and Zach Dezenzo becomes important because it will be the benchmark we measure any possible outfield acquisitions with. Obviously, both left field and center field are open possibilities and these next two articles will hopefully settle which position the Astros should target in a perfect world.
We use bases per out because they are much more accurate and all encompassing than cruder stats like OPS and OPS+. They are probably most similar to wOBA and rOBA, but since the formula is more transparent (because it is mine) it will hopefully be more meaningful. This is a gentle reminder that the MLB average for BPO is .676, but as we have seen, each position is different and brings with it different expectations. Otherwise, this article will serve as the lime wedge for the tequila shot that will be the other outfield positions.
Outs

#left #player #alvarez

One way to find hitters who could bounce back in the second half is to look at expected metrics. Most expected batting average (xBA) formulas involve exit velocity. We want hitters to hit the ball hard. If hitters hit the ball hard and make enough contact, positive outcomes should occur. That’s a case where we want to trust a player’s skills instead of luck.
The visual below shows the hitters with the biggest gap in their xBA and actual BA. That suggests these hitters should have a better BA based on their skills.
We’ll take this a step further, looking at the hitters with the biggest expected wOBA difference in their actual wOBA, adding another layer to their profile. Unsurprisingly, some of the hitters with potential positive regression in their xBA also land on the list of xwOBA improvers, as seen below.
That said, let’s examine several hitters who could rebound in the second half based on the advanced metrics.
After hitting 20+ home runs and stealing double-digit bases in the two previous seasons, most of the projections have Nimmo under 20 home runs. The Mets' home park ranks 18th, with the Rangers at 17th in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed hitters in the three-year rolling average. That said, it’s a neutral change. However, the Rangers' home park ranks 12th and the Mets is 19th in Home Run Park Factor for left-handed hitters if we filter by this season.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 31: Carson Benge #3 of the New York Mets reacts at home plate after his first inning home run against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field on May 31, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
The All-Star break is next week, giving fantasy managers an opportunity to **** s their rosters for the stretch run. Whether it's hitting or pitching, there are still some appealing options out there. Let's highlight five players to consider adding who are still available in the majority of Yahoo leagues.
Benge has caught fire at the plate, hitting 27-for-82 (.329) with a .396 OBP, four home runs, 11 RBI, and 14 runs scored over his last 20 games. During that span, the young outfielder only had an 18.7% strikeout rate. Benge also showed a good eye in the minors, posting a 17.7% strikeout rate across three levels last year. In addition to his improving average, Benge has 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases for the season. With his ability to contribute in multiple categories, he should be rostered in more leagues.
Donovan has been out since the middle of May with a groin injury. Prior to going down, he was playing well with his .274 batting average and .838 OPS. For his career, he is batting .282 with a .341 wOBA, so he can be a valuable fantasy option. Also helping his cause is that he is eligible at four positions on Yahoo. He is progressing towards making a return and will likely start playing in rehab games in the next few days. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him return shortly after the All-Star break.
Ewing is another young outfielder that the Mets have high hopes for. He has also picked up his production lately, hitting 18-for-53 (.340) with five home runs, 11 RBI, 12 runs scored, and two stolen bases over his last 15 games. After posting a .428 wOBA in the minors this year, he has a .352 wOBA since being called up. Although he doesn't have as much power as Benge, Ewing's ability to get on base and record steals still makes him a viable option in 12-team leagues.

The lineups are out for tonight’s middle game between the Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates and there aren’t too many shocks or surprises going on as far as the Braves are concerned. Michael Harris II is still leading off, Austin Riley is near the bottom, the top of the order seems a bit imposing while you’re hoping for the best from the middle and the bottom portion of the lineup.
Here’s how things are looking for the Braves tonight:
The catcher decision is an interesting one since this’ll actually be the first time that Grant Holmes has formed a battery with Joey Bart, as his past three starts (since Bart joined the club) have all been with Drake Baldwin serving as the backstop. We’ll see how that goes in terms of a pitching combination and we’ll also see how it goes for Bart at the plate as he’s currently hitting .136/.269/.318 with a .273 wOBA and a 68 wRC+ since joining the Braves. That’s not great but to be completely honest, it’s better than the production they had been getting from previous catchers.
Drake Baldwin, on the other hand, has looked more like his usual self since the calendar went from “June” to “July” so hopefully he’ll continue to keep things going in the right direction. The same goes for the rest of the lineup as well, as they’re showing serious signs of getting things back rolling again at the plate after spending a month wandering in the wilderness as a unit.
We will update this post with the Pirates lineup once they release it. For now, make sure to join us late on as first pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET tonight at PNC Park.

I've never been a pitcher— unless we count a few Be a Pro save files in various editions of MLB: The Show —, but I have to imagine it's something of a relief to throw a fastball. You don't have to torture your arm with some tendon-twisting, movement-generating motion, you don't have to worry that your offspeed pitch will get sniffed out and given one-way airfare out of the park. You just get to rear back, and throw it as hard as you can. Just like you did when you were first messing around in the backyard.
Pitchers who face the Phillies don't always have the opportunity to do so. They first have to work their way past Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, whose faces appear annually on the "WARNING: Do Not Throw These Men a Fastball" list thoughtfully distributed to pitchers league-wide. After that, though, they probably want to toss a bunch of heaters to whoever's up next. Alec Bohm? He's got a pretty slow bat. Yes, why not toss him some fastballs? It must be tempting to do so, because he's seeing a greater percentage of fastballs than any Phillie besides Justin Crawford.
Opposing pitchers reading this, please read the following carefully: do not throw fastballs to Alec Bohm. I know he ranks in the 28th percentile for bat speed. I know he was really bad against fastballs in the first month of the season. He is not bad at hitting them anymore. By telling you this, I have done my due diligence. If you ignore me, I can't be held responsible.
I really hope they didn't read that, though. Because I would like pitchers to keep throwing fastballs to Bohm. And so would he, I'd imagine. (All stats prior to Tuesday's game). His tremendous struggles at the plate in March and April were a result of his dismal performance against fastballs (wOBA of .177) and breaking ****** (.191). And so it came as no surprise when he kept seeing a steady diet of the same in May. But as the weather heated up, so did his bat. His performance against both fastballs and breaking ****** improved in the fifth month, but much more so for the former: his wOBA against the fastball leapt up to .347, nearly double what it had been. His wOBA against the moving stuff went up from .191 to .260; notable, but comparatively modest. In June, his wOBA against breaking ****** dropped, but his performance against fastballs just kept rising: wOBA of .423. And yet, he's seeing a slightly greater percentage of fastballs in June than he did in May, which in turn was a slightly greater percentage than he saw in April. Hence the warning above.
But how's Bohm doing it? His BABIP against fastballs just keeps rising: it was a dismal .113 across March and April, more than doubled in May, and now sits at a whopping .395 in June. That only gets us part of the way there, though. What's behind the change in BABIP? Some luck, surely, both good and bad: he underperformed his expected stats against the fastball in April, and he's overperforming against them in June. But there's something real there, too. He's

As we venture into the first week of June, the 2026 MLB season is fully underway. This week, we are back to focusing on the overperformers, or the arms whose ERAs are being suppressed by batted-ball luck and high strand rates. From ERAs near 1.50 with xFIPs above 5.00, we examine five pitchers who are outrunning their underlying numbers.
MORE: MLB Power Rankings: 30 teams ranked worst to first
Leading off the list this week is Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Martinez, whose current run of form seems highly unsustainable. Through May, he sits at a 1.62 ERA over 66.2 innings, helping Tampa Bay currently post the lowest team ERA in baseball. What really helps him is his BABIP (.236) and strand rate (90.2%), which both outperform his career figures.
He limits hard contact with only a low hard-hit rate (32.5%) and average exit velocity (86.7 mph), but his low strikeout rate (14.9%) and 92.6 mph fastball do not allow for a continuous swing-and-miss ****** nal. Once baserunners stop being stranded, Nick Martinez’s ERA will climb above his sub-2.00 mark as his command-and-luck mirage fades.
Next up is New York Mets right-hander Clay Holmes, who had been one of the few bright spots in Queens before his injury, posting a 2.39 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across his first 52.2 innings. He thrives on grounders rather than being dominant on the mound, which is shown by his contact quality data: a 44% hard-hit rate and a .307 expected wOBA against his .262 actual mark.

Lars Nootbaar this season:

- 7 HRs
- .346 wOBA
- 51.0% Hard-hit rate
ZT_Sports
is taking Nootbaar (+400) + two other hitters to go yard tonight: https://dkng.co/44LwbeK

https://dkng.co/44LwbeK