As we venture into the first week of June, the 2026 MLB season is fully underway. This week, we are back to focusing on the overperformers, or the arms whose ERAs are being suppressed by batted-ball luck and high strand rates. From ERAs near 1.50 with xFIPs above 5.00, we examine five pitchers who are outrunning their underlying numbers.
MORE: MLB Power Rankings: 30 teams ranked worst to first
Leading off the list this week is Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Martinez, whose current run of form seems highly unsustainable. Through May, he sits at a 1.62 ERA over 66.2 innings, helping Tampa Bay currently post the lowest team ERA in baseball. What really helps him is his BABIP (.236) and strand rate (90.2%), which both outperform his career figures.
He limits hard contact with only a low hard-hit rate (32.5%) and average exit velocity (86.7 mph), but his low strikeout rate (14.9%) and 92.6 mph fastball do not allow for a continuous swing-and-miss ****** nal. Once baserunners stop being stranded, Nick Martinez’s ERA will climb above his sub-2.00 mark as his command-and-luck mirage fades.
Next up is New York Mets right-hander Clay Holmes, who had been one of the few bright spots in Queens before his injury, posting a 2.39 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across his first 52.2 innings. He thrives on grounders rather than being dominant on the mound, which is shown by his contact quality data: a 44% hard-hit rate and a .307 expected wOBA against his .262 actual mark.
MORE: MLB Power Rankings: 30 teams ranked worst to first
Leading off the list this week is Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Martinez, whose current run of form seems highly unsustainable. Through May, he sits at a 1.62 ERA over 66.2 innings, helping Tampa Bay currently post the lowest team ERA in baseball. What really helps him is his BABIP (.236) and strand rate (90.2%), which both outperform his career figures.
He limits hard contact with only a low hard-hit rate (32.5%) and average exit velocity (86.7 mph), but his low strikeout rate (14.9%) and 92.6 mph fastball do not allow for a continuous swing-and-miss ****** nal. Once baserunners stop being stranded, Nick Martinez’s ERA will climb above his sub-2.00 mark as his command-and-luck mirage fades.
Next up is New York Mets right-hander Clay Holmes, who had been one of the few bright spots in Queens before his injury, posting a 2.39 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across his first 52.2 innings. He thrives on grounders rather than being dominant on the mound, which is shown by his contact quality data: a 44% hard-hit rate and a .307 expected wOBA against his .262 actual mark.
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