43 mins. ago
This week's ETF Zoo crew takes a lay of the land as summer comes to a close and some new and interesting developments crop up. ETF.com hosts Dave Nadig, President & Director of Research, and Sumit Roy, Senior ETF ****** yst, are joined in this episode by Cinthia Murphy, Director of Research at TMX VettaFi, and James Seyffart, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research ****** yst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Together the group talks about some of the big M&A announcements lately, dig into the AI chokepoint perspective, and more.
You can view this episode here or on our YouTube channel or listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
M&A land grab in full swing. Billions in ETF acquisitions, including Victory Capital/First Eagle, Vanguard/Altruist, and more, signal that scale instead of organic growth now drives the industry. The Zoo crew debated whether firms are buying hit products, talent, or distribution, and what could be ahead for the industry.
Leverage and gambling push into new territory. Defiance's hourly-reset leveraged ETFs barely differ from daily resets despite pulling in huge fees, while Korea and ****** an crack down on single-stock leverage entirely. New NHL-linked sports-betting ETFs raised bigger concerns about routing gambling risk through the same rails as retirement savings.
AI concentration is everywhere, even where you don't expect it. Thematic and datacenter ETFs quietly hold the same chokepoint stocks like Micron and Nvidia, sparking debate over whether that's a feature or a vulnerability. However, real revenue growth at companies like Anthropic and OpenAI kept the Zoo Crew from sounding the alarm just yet.
#land #chokepoint
You can view this episode here or on our YouTube channel or listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
M&A land grab in full swing. Billions in ETF acquisitions, including Victory Capital/First Eagle, Vanguard/Altruist, and more, signal that scale instead of organic growth now drives the industry. The Zoo crew debated whether firms are buying hit products, talent, or distribution, and what could be ahead for the industry.
Leverage and gambling push into new territory. Defiance's hourly-reset leveraged ETFs barely differ from daily resets despite pulling in huge fees, while Korea and ****** an crack down on single-stock leverage entirely. New NHL-linked sports-betting ETFs raised bigger concerns about routing gambling risk through the same rails as retirement savings.
AI concentration is everywhere, even where you don't expect it. Thematic and datacenter ETFs quietly hold the same chokepoint stocks like Micron and Nvidia, sparking debate over whether that's a feature or a vulnerability. However, real revenue growth at companies like Anthropic and OpenAI kept the Zoo Crew from sounding the alarm just yet.
#land #chokepoint
10 days ago
Oil prices surged above $120 a barrel in April as the Iran conflict choked the Strait of Hormuz and traders feared the worst.
Since then, something unexpected has happened. Prices have been falling. Not because the conflict ended, but because the market found a way around it.
Goldman Sachs ***** ysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby published a note this week laying out why the energy market's recovery matters, what it means for different parts of the energy sector, and why crude oil faces less upside risk than many investors might expect, Bloomberg reported.
The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important oil chokepoint in the world. About a third of the globe's seaborne oil passes through it on the way from Persian Gulf exporters to global buyers.
When the Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, flows collapsed. Goldman estimates total crude and oil-product exports through the Strait fell to roughly 5 to 6 million barrels per day in March, down from about 22 to 24 million barrels per day before the conflict, Bloomberg reported.
#Iran #goldman #crude
Since then, something unexpected has happened. Prices have been falling. Not because the conflict ended, but because the market found a way around it.
Goldman Sachs ***** ysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby published a note this week laying out why the energy market's recovery matters, what it means for different parts of the energy sector, and why crude oil faces less upside risk than many investors might expect, Bloomberg reported.
The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important oil chokepoint in the world. About a third of the globe's seaborne oil passes through it on the way from Persian Gulf exporters to global buyers.
When the Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, flows collapsed. Goldman estimates total crude and oil-product exports through the Strait fell to roughly 5 to 6 million barrels per day in March, down from about 22 to 24 million barrels per day before the conflict, Bloomberg reported.
#Iran #goldman #crude
11 days ago
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged his country's economic woes amid pressure from the U.S., which is strangling its trade while protecting other countries' ships carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent weeks have seen Tehran lose leverage over the critical energy chokepoint as traffic picks up, especially via a southern route along Oman's coast. At the same time, warnings about Iran's economy from Pezeshkian and the regime's other relative moderates have been mounting.
In an interview with state media on Friday, he signaled defiance in the face of all the economic pressure and credited Iran's resilience to its unity.
"We have many problems," Pezeshkian said, according to a Google translation. "There's inflation, economic issues, employment and many other problems, but the people are with us."
Indeed, inflation has soared above 80%, with prices for certain food staples up 100%. The International Monetary Fund said in April Iran's economy will shrink 6.1% this year, the worst contraction in decades. And a labor ministry official estimated that more than 1 million jobs had been lost by late May.
#pressure #problems #inflation
Recent weeks have seen Tehran lose leverage over the critical energy chokepoint as traffic picks up, especially via a southern route along Oman's coast. At the same time, warnings about Iran's economy from Pezeshkian and the regime's other relative moderates have been mounting.
In an interview with state media on Friday, he signaled defiance in the face of all the economic pressure and credited Iran's resilience to its unity.
"We have many problems," Pezeshkian said, according to a Google translation. "There's inflation, economic issues, employment and many other problems, but the people are with us."
Indeed, inflation has soared above 80%, with prices for certain food staples up 100%. The International Monetary Fund said in April Iran's economy will shrink 6.1% this year, the worst contraction in decades. And a labor ministry official estimated that more than 1 million jobs had been lost by late May.
#pressure #problems #inflation
22 days ago
Gulf oil producers are finding new ways around the Strait of Hormuz, but bypassing the world's biggest oil chokepoint creates new risks.
VLCC Rates Go Ballistic as Hormuz Turns Into a Freight Jackpot
- VLCC prices are ballooning out of control (once again), pushing ***** sed earnings for a Middle East-to-China voyage beyond $500,000 per day as the flow of vessels moving out of the Gulf trickled down to a mere couple per day.
- Amidst news that Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at its key Ras Tanura export terminal, VLCC fixing costs for inside-Hormuz cargoes jumped to a whopping $31 million per voyage, as seen this week with the Mongolia Prosperity supertanker.
- Saudi Aramco loaded at least three VLCCs (Malaysia Prosperity, Algeria Prosperity and Singapore Prosperity) in the Gulf last week, all owned by Sinokor, offering them to Asian buyers via ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah in the UAE on a prompt basis.
#prosperity #ship
VLCC Rates Go Ballistic as Hormuz Turns Into a Freight Jackpot
- VLCC prices are ballooning out of control (once again), pushing ***** sed earnings for a Middle East-to-China voyage beyond $500,000 per day as the flow of vessels moving out of the Gulf trickled down to a mere couple per day.
- Amidst news that Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at its key Ras Tanura export terminal, VLCC fixing costs for inside-Hormuz cargoes jumped to a whopping $31 million per voyage, as seen this week with the Mongolia Prosperity supertanker.
- Saudi Aramco loaded at least three VLCCs (Malaysia Prosperity, Algeria Prosperity and Singapore Prosperity) in the Gulf last week, all owned by Sinokor, offering them to Asian buyers via ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah in the UAE on a prompt basis.
#prosperity #ship
1 month ago
The U.S.'s emergency oil reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels of oil for the first time since it was being filled decades ago.
New Energy Department data shows that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) contained 298.7 million barrels as of Friday.
The last time the level was below 300 million barrels was in the early 1980s.
The drop is not a surprise, as the Trump administration announced in March that it would release 172 million barrels from the reserve over the course of 120 days.
The U.S.'s war in Iran has put a crunch on global oil supplies because Iran has been able to limit oil shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint. This has resulted in higher prices for consumers at the pump.
#Iran #department
New Energy Department data shows that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) contained 298.7 million barrels as of Friday.
The last time the level was below 300 million barrels was in the early 1980s.
The drop is not a surprise, as the Trump administration announced in March that it would release 172 million barrels from the reserve over the course of 120 days.
The U.S.'s war in Iran has put a crunch on global oil supplies because Iran has been able to limit oil shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint. This has resulted in higher prices for consumers at the pump.
#Iran #department
1 month ago
Trump's latest comments cooled oil prices, but talks over ending the Strait of Hormuz blockade could prove far more consequential.
Hedge Funds Pile Back into Oil as Chokepoint Risks Return
- The signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding triggered one of the largest hedge fund sell-offs for crude futures and options, however the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (and now of Bab el-Mandeb) has made bullishness in vogue again.
- Net positions held by hedge funds and other money managers in ICE Brent futures and options rebounded to the equivalent of more than 192 million barrels, a 2-month high, in the week ending July 21.
- Interestingly, the positioning of hedge funds in Nymex WTI has been somewhat stagnant throughout June-July, suggesting that speculative market participants prefer to avoid futures contract with physical delivery.
#futures #july
Hedge Funds Pile Back into Oil as Chokepoint Risks Return
- The signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding triggered one of the largest hedge fund sell-offs for crude futures and options, however the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (and now of Bab el-Mandeb) has made bullishness in vogue again.
- Net positions held by hedge funds and other money managers in ICE Brent futures and options rebounded to the equivalent of more than 192 million barrels, a 2-month high, in the week ending July 21.
- Interestingly, the positioning of hedge funds in Nymex WTI has been somewhat stagnant throughout June-July, suggesting that speculative market participants prefer to avoid futures contract with physical delivery.
#futures #july
1 month ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at American forces in the Middle East on Tuesday, shattering a brief pause in fighting as mediators tried to get both sides back to negotiations and toward a ceasefire, the U.S. military said.
All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted, the U.S. Central Command said in a statement, adding that U.S. forces "remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness."
The United States and Iran had experienced a period of calm, during which neither announced attacks for days following weeks of escalation over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway and narrow chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil normally flows.
There was no immediate comment from Tehran on the U.S. military statement or the strikes.
Iran effectively closed the strait when the war began by firing at freighters and tankers off its coast or threatening them. Following the signing of an interim ceasefire deal in June, a battle for control over the strait erupted.
#Iran #following #military #statement
All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted, the U.S. Central Command said in a statement, adding that U.S. forces "remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness."
The United States and Iran had experienced a period of calm, during which neither announced attacks for days following weeks of escalation over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway and narrow chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil normally flows.
There was no immediate comment from Tehran on the U.S. military statement or the strikes.
Iran effectively closed the strait when the war began by firing at freighters and tankers off its coast or threatening them. Following the signing of an interim ceasefire deal in June, a battle for control over the strait erupted.
#Iran #following #military #statement
2 months ago
Global equities ended last week little changed in local currency and up 0.6% in sterling terms. This continued the choppy pattern of recent weeks with markets currently down 1.5-2% from their peak in early June. The US underperformed with a gain of 0.3% in sterling terms while the UK and emerging markets were both up around 1.3%.
Meanwhile, government bonds in the US and UK both lost 0.5% with yields re-testing their highs in early May. 10-year UK gilt yields tested 5.1% while US yields reached 4.7%, before retreating a bit.
The war with Iran was centre stage with renewed attacks by both sides and Trump once again upping his threats. The new ingredient this time was that concerns were not limited to the Strait of Hormuz but extended to the Bab El Mandeb Strait with the Houthis exchanging blows with Saudi Arabia and threatening to close the waterway.
The importance of this new chokepoint is two-fold. First, it threatens Saudi's ability to divert via its pipeline a good part of its oil production to the Red Sea rather than the Strait of Hormuz. Second, it poses a threat to container traffic more generally which use the Suez Canal to avoid a long and costly diversion around the African coast.
Oil duly moved back up to $100 per barrel mid-week from a low of close to $70pb all of three weeks ago. But it is back down to $88pb this morning as negotiations between the US and Iran started up once again over the weekend, easing fears of a major escalation. However, this morning, Iran said it is not seeking new peace talks, so the confusion continues.
Even so, the fact remains that Trump appears to have chickened out yet again – be it because the hike in oil prices has pushed US gasoline prices back above $4 per gallon, the rise in US Treasury yields has caused concerns or because, as has been reported, the US lacks the necessary munitions.
#strait #back #sterling
Meanwhile, government bonds in the US and UK both lost 0.5% with yields re-testing their highs in early May. 10-year UK gilt yields tested 5.1% while US yields reached 4.7%, before retreating a bit.
The war with Iran was centre stage with renewed attacks by both sides and Trump once again upping his threats. The new ingredient this time was that concerns were not limited to the Strait of Hormuz but extended to the Bab El Mandeb Strait with the Houthis exchanging blows with Saudi Arabia and threatening to close the waterway.
The importance of this new chokepoint is two-fold. First, it threatens Saudi's ability to divert via its pipeline a good part of its oil production to the Red Sea rather than the Strait of Hormuz. Second, it poses a threat to container traffic more generally which use the Suez Canal to avoid a long and costly diversion around the African coast.
Oil duly moved back up to $100 per barrel mid-week from a low of close to $70pb all of three weeks ago. But it is back down to $88pb this morning as negotiations between the US and Iran started up once again over the weekend, easing fears of a major escalation. However, this morning, Iran said it is not seeking new peace talks, so the confusion continues.
Even so, the fact remains that Trump appears to have chickened out yet again – be it because the hike in oil prices has pushed US gasoline prices back above $4 per gallon, the rise in US Treasury yields has caused concerns or because, as has been reported, the US lacks the necessary munitions.
#strait #back #sterling
2 months ago
Oil prices gave up earlier gains on Friday after reports that Pakistan is trying to broker a return to U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. China is strongly backing the effort as the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten its energy security and weigh on its economy.
Brent crude for September delivery fell 4.4% to trade at $96.36 per barrel at 1.35 pm ET while WTI crude for September delivery was down 3.6% to change hands at $88.86/bbl.
However, Standard Chartered says the latest pullback may prove temporary as Middle East oil market risk has expanded from one strategic chokepoint to two.
On Monday, Yemen's Houthi militant group imposed a targeted maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening to enforce it by blocking Saudi-linked vessels from transiting the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The group claimed the blockade was a direct retaliation for a decade-long Saudi containment of Yemen as well as a recent Saudi-backed airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport.
The threat immediately rattled oil markets, prompting multiple Saudi-linked very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to abandon planned transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and instead reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding up to two weeks to each voyage. Two days later, the Houthis followed through. The group launched ballistic missiles and drones at two Saudi oil tankers on Thursday, damaging both vessels and igniting fires onboard. Brent crude surged nearly $20 per barrel, briefly climbing above $100.
#brent #september
Brent crude for September delivery fell 4.4% to trade at $96.36 per barrel at 1.35 pm ET while WTI crude for September delivery was down 3.6% to change hands at $88.86/bbl.
However, Standard Chartered says the latest pullback may prove temporary as Middle East oil market risk has expanded from one strategic chokepoint to two.
On Monday, Yemen's Houthi militant group imposed a targeted maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening to enforce it by blocking Saudi-linked vessels from transiting the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The group claimed the blockade was a direct retaliation for a decade-long Saudi containment of Yemen as well as a recent Saudi-backed airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport.
The threat immediately rattled oil markets, prompting multiple Saudi-linked very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to abandon planned transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and instead reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding up to two weeks to each voyage. Two days later, the Houthis followed through. The group launched ballistic missiles and drones at two Saudi oil tankers on Thursday, damaging both vessels and igniting fires onboard. Brent crude surged nearly $20 per barrel, briefly climbing above $100.
#brent #september
2 months ago
Less than a month ago, **** ysts were warning of a looming glut of crude oil as tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz began to recover amid a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Within days of these warnings, the ceasefire was a painful memory, missiles were flying again, and now Yemen's Houthis are striking tankers in the Red Sea, which makes two blocked oil chokepoints and a very real danger of a global recession.
Brent crude this week topped $100 per barrel on reports that the Houthis had struck two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which Saudi Arabia is currently using as the primary outlet for its crude amid the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Soon enough it emerged that tankers that were heading to the Red Sea waterway were making U-turns and heading to alternative routes—which take longer and cost more.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline System's terminus on the Black Sea have forced Kazakhstan to suspend most of its oil exports. The target of the drone attacks was the Novorossiysk port on Russia's Black Sea coast, which also happens to be the point of departure of the bulk of Kazakh oil exports to world markets. Bloomberg reported this week that tanker operators were getting nervous about sending their vessels to the port of Novorossiysk because Ukrainian drones were also striking ships at the port.
The Strait of Hormuz used to see average daily oil volumes of some 20 million barrels daily. This has now slowed to a trickle. The Red Sea chokepoint of Bab el-Mandeb has been handling between 4 and 5 million barrels daily of Saudi oil in recent weeks, according to different estimates. Now, this too appears to be almost completely blocked. Add to this the loss of 1.7 million barrels daily in Kazakh flows to Novorossiysk, and the global oil supply picture takes on a rather grim tint. Additionally, the Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian refineries, which has already led to a temporary ban on diesel exports at a time when global fuel inventories are getting strained by the first-wave effects of the Middle East war.
In fact, the situation with refined petroleum products is a major crisis in its own right. "Unlike crude oil, refined products face far fewer mitigation options. Several Middle Eastern refineries remain affected by the ongoing conflict while Russia's diesel export restrictions continue to constrain global availability," Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, said in an **** ysis earlier this month. "Refining capacity globally also remains relatively limited, preventing crude supply increases from quickly translating into additional diesel and gasoline production," he added.
#daily #exports
Brent crude this week topped $100 per barrel on reports that the Houthis had struck two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which Saudi Arabia is currently using as the primary outlet for its crude amid the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Soon enough it emerged that tankers that were heading to the Red Sea waterway were making U-turns and heading to alternative routes—which take longer and cost more.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline System's terminus on the Black Sea have forced Kazakhstan to suspend most of its oil exports. The target of the drone attacks was the Novorossiysk port on Russia's Black Sea coast, which also happens to be the point of departure of the bulk of Kazakh oil exports to world markets. Bloomberg reported this week that tanker operators were getting nervous about sending their vessels to the port of Novorossiysk because Ukrainian drones were also striking ships at the port.
The Strait of Hormuz used to see average daily oil volumes of some 20 million barrels daily. This has now slowed to a trickle. The Red Sea chokepoint of Bab el-Mandeb has been handling between 4 and 5 million barrels daily of Saudi oil in recent weeks, according to different estimates. Now, this too appears to be almost completely blocked. Add to this the loss of 1.7 million barrels daily in Kazakh flows to Novorossiysk, and the global oil supply picture takes on a rather grim tint. Additionally, the Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian refineries, which has already led to a temporary ban on diesel exports at a time when global fuel inventories are getting strained by the first-wave effects of the Middle East war.
In fact, the situation with refined petroleum products is a major crisis in its own right. "Unlike crude oil, refined products face far fewer mitigation options. Several Middle Eastern refineries remain affected by the ongoing conflict while Russia's diesel export restrictions continue to constrain global availability," Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, said in an **** ysis earlier this month. "Refining capacity globally also remains relatively limited, preventing crude supply increases from quickly translating into additional diesel and gasoline production," he added.
#daily #exports
2 months ago
Houthi attacks are expanding the Middle East conflict into the Red Sea, forcing tankers to reroute and pushing Brent above $91 amid growing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
Aramco Floods the Red Sea With Crude Ahead of Houthi Escalation
- Perhaps foreshadowing an escalation in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia's national oil company Saudi Aramco shipped record volumes of crude from its Red Sea port of Yanbu over the past four weeks.
- Yemen's Houthi rebels have sent an email to most global shipping companies, warning against loading any cargo in Saudi ports and threatening with strikes in case they come within operational reach.
- Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been relying on the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline to evacuate its production from its eastern regions towards oil markets.
- Of this, only 4-4.5 million b/d due to port limitations in Yanbu, the endpoint of the East-West pipeline and a key infrastructure chokepoint, with an additional 1.5-2 million b/d shipped to Aramco refineries along the Red Sea coast.
#west #escalation
Aramco Floods the Red Sea With Crude Ahead of Houthi Escalation
- Perhaps foreshadowing an escalation in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia's national oil company Saudi Aramco shipped record volumes of crude from its Red Sea port of Yanbu over the past four weeks.
- Yemen's Houthi rebels have sent an email to most global shipping companies, warning against loading any cargo in Saudi ports and threatening with strikes in case they come within operational reach.
- Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been relying on the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline to evacuate its production from its eastern regions towards oil markets.
- Of this, only 4-4.5 million b/d due to port limitations in Yanbu, the endpoint of the East-West pipeline and a key infrastructure chokepoint, with an additional 1.5-2 million b/d shipped to Aramco refineries along the Red Sea coast.
#west #escalation
2 months ago
Right now, the twin forces of the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out and relentless demand for connectivity are lifting some of the strongest names in technology and telecom. Here are five compelling stocks worth buying more of, starting with the one everyone is watching.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) has quietly become one of the most important companies in AI. It designs the custom chips that giants, including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Meta Platforms, use to run their own AI systems, and it dominates the networking gear that ties thousands of those chips together inside a data center. On top of that, its infrastructure software business, anchored by VMware, throws off steady, high-margin revenue that cushions the more cyclical chip side. With a massive AI order backlog and a clear path toward much larger AI sales, Broadcom pairs explosive growth with a diversified base most chipmakers lack.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) is the company that builds the world's most advanced chips, including those designed by Broadcom and Nvidia. Its management recently called AI demand "extremely robust" and raised its growth outlook, while pouring another $100 billion into its Arizona campus and ramping its cutting-edge 2-nanometer technology. Because nearly every leading chip company depends on its factories, Taiwan Semiconductor sits at an irreplaceable chokepoint in the AI economy. That is about as wide a moat as you will find.
Alphabet combines the cash machine of Google Search with a fast-growing cloud business and its own leading AI models. The company is investing enormous sums, including a plan to raise tens of billions to fund its AI infrastructure, and it is weaving AI across its products rather than being disrupted by it. Notably, Berkshire Hathaway built a large stake in Alphabet, a vote of confidence from the most famous value investor's company that this is a wonderful business at a fair price.
#broadcom #alphabet #taiwan
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) has quietly become one of the most important companies in AI. It designs the custom chips that giants, including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Meta Platforms, use to run their own AI systems, and it dominates the networking gear that ties thousands of those chips together inside a data center. On top of that, its infrastructure software business, anchored by VMware, throws off steady, high-margin revenue that cushions the more cyclical chip side. With a massive AI order backlog and a clear path toward much larger AI sales, Broadcom pairs explosive growth with a diversified base most chipmakers lack.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) is the company that builds the world's most advanced chips, including those designed by Broadcom and Nvidia. Its management recently called AI demand "extremely robust" and raised its growth outlook, while pouring another $100 billion into its Arizona campus and ramping its cutting-edge 2-nanometer technology. Because nearly every leading chip company depends on its factories, Taiwan Semiconductor sits at an irreplaceable chokepoint in the AI economy. That is about as wide a moat as you will find.
Alphabet combines the cash machine of Google Search with a fast-growing cloud business and its own leading AI models. The company is investing enormous sums, including a plan to raise tens of billions to fund its AI infrastructure, and it is weaving AI across its products rather than being disrupted by it. Notably, Berkshire Hathaway built a large stake in Alphabet, a vote of confidence from the most famous value investor's company that this is a wonderful business at a fair price.
#broadcom #alphabet #taiwan
2 months ago
Bill O'Reilly suggested that his longtime friend President Donald Trump "needs a breather" from his White House duties due to his age, even as the war in Iran still rages on.
"As you know, I've known the president 35 years, and he's 80 years old right now," O'Reilly, 76, said on Tuesday's episode of the "No Spin News" podcast.
Politics: Hegseth Grilled Amid Iran War Escalation, Thousands Of Flight Cancelled: Live Updates
Observing "that [Trump] is hunching over a little bit," O'Reilly continued, "that's normal. You get older, every malady in the world is going to visit you." He then advised the president to "take the next month off" and "get into an environment where you like golf, and relax a little bit."
O'Reilly made the comments amid the fallout of the Iran war after the Trump administration's interim deal with Iran to cease fighting collapsed. The U.S. and Iran continue to trade strikes as the shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, an essential shipping chokepoint for global oil, has largely halted.
#Trump #years
"As you know, I've known the president 35 years, and he's 80 years old right now," O'Reilly, 76, said on Tuesday's episode of the "No Spin News" podcast.
Politics: Hegseth Grilled Amid Iran War Escalation, Thousands Of Flight Cancelled: Live Updates
Observing "that [Trump] is hunching over a little bit," O'Reilly continued, "that's normal. You get older, every malady in the world is going to visit you." He then advised the president to "take the next month off" and "get into an environment where you like golf, and relax a little bit."
O'Reilly made the comments amid the fallout of the Iran war after the Trump administration's interim deal with Iran to cease fighting collapsed. The U.S. and Iran continue to trade strikes as the shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, an essential shipping chokepoint for global oil, has largely halted.
#Trump #years
2 months ago
Right now, the twin forces of the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out and relentless demand for connectivity are lifting some of the strongest names in technology and telecom. Here are five compelling stocks worth buying more of, starting with the one everyone is watching.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) has quietly become one of the most important companies in AI. It designs the custom chips that giants, including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Meta Platforms, use to run their own AI systems, and it dominates the networking gear that ties thousands of those chips together inside a data center. On top of that, its infrastructure software business, anchored by VMware, throws off steady, high-margin revenue that cushions the more cyclical chip side. With a massive AI order backlog and a clear path toward much larger AI sales, Broadcom pairs explosive growth with a diversified base most chipmakers lack.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) is the company that builds the world's most advanced chips, including those designed by Broadcom and Nvidia. Its management recently called AI demand "extremely robust" and raised its growth outlook, while pouring another $100 billion into its Arizona campus and ramping its cutting-edge 2-nanometer technology. Because nearly every leading chip company depends on its factories, Taiwan Semiconductor sits at an irreplaceable chokepoint in the AI economy. That is about as wide a moat as you will find.
Alphabet combines the cash machine of Google Search with a fast-growing cloud business and its own leading AI models. The company is investing enormous sums, including a plan to raise tens of billions to fund its AI infrastructure, and it is weaving AI across its products rather than being disrupted by it. Notably, Berkshire Hathaway built a large stake in Alphabet, a vote of confidence from the most famous value investor's company that this is a wonderful business at a fair price.
#NVIDIA #NASDAQ #business
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) has quietly become one of the most important companies in AI. It designs the custom chips that giants, including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Meta Platforms, use to run their own AI systems, and it dominates the networking gear that ties thousands of those chips together inside a data center. On top of that, its infrastructure software business, anchored by VMware, throws off steady, high-margin revenue that cushions the more cyclical chip side. With a massive AI order backlog and a clear path toward much larger AI sales, Broadcom pairs explosive growth with a diversified base most chipmakers lack.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) is the company that builds the world's most advanced chips, including those designed by Broadcom and Nvidia. Its management recently called AI demand "extremely robust" and raised its growth outlook, while pouring another $100 billion into its Arizona campus and ramping its cutting-edge 2-nanometer technology. Because nearly every leading chip company depends on its factories, Taiwan Semiconductor sits at an irreplaceable chokepoint in the AI economy. That is about as wide a moat as you will find.
Alphabet combines the cash machine of Google Search with a fast-growing cloud business and its own leading AI models. The company is investing enormous sums, including a plan to raise tens of billions to fund its AI infrastructure, and it is weaving AI across its products rather than being disrupted by it. Notably, Berkshire Hathaway built a large stake in Alphabet, a vote of confidence from the most famous value investor's company that this is a wonderful business at a fair price.
#NVIDIA #NASDAQ #business
2 months ago
China cut crude imports to 7.8 million bpd in May, accounting for 74% of the entire global trade decrease, while keeping its 1.4 billion barrel reserve intact.
The Hormuz closure removed 14% of global supply yet prices climbed just 30%, a fraction of the 130% spike during the 1973 OPEC embargo.
When China's August import data rebounds, the cushion keeping US gas near $3.85 vanishes, making that single data point oil's most critical warning signal.
This lithium producer surpassed a $1B private valuation, joining some of America's most powerful startups. Now you can invest in EnergyX alongside global giants like General Motors, but only through July 16. (sponsor)
The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil, was declared closed again on July 11 by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy. Within 72 hours, US forces struck roughly 140 military targets, Iran launched missile and drone retaliation against the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, and Washington reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude jumped more than 4% on July 13 to $79.26, its highest level since June 22, and by this morning was trading around $84 to $86, up roughly 5% on the week, according to CNBC and Al Jazeera. The two largest oil ETFs are up roughly 10% to 13% over the past week.
The Hormuz closure removed 14% of global supply yet prices climbed just 30%, a fraction of the 130% spike during the 1973 OPEC embargo.
When China's August import data rebounds, the cushion keeping US gas near $3.85 vanishes, making that single data point oil's most critical warning signal.
This lithium producer surpassed a $1B private valuation, joining some of America's most powerful startups. Now you can invest in EnergyX alongside global giants like General Motors, but only through July 16. (sponsor)
The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil, was declared closed again on July 11 by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy. Within 72 hours, US forces struck roughly 140 military targets, Iran launched missile and drone retaliation against the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, and Washington reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude jumped more than 4% on July 13 to $79.26, its highest level since June 22, and by this morning was trading around $84 to $86, up roughly 5% on the week, according to CNBC and Al Jazeera. The two largest oil ETFs are up roughly 10% to 13% over the past week.
2 months ago
Gary **** erson raised AMAT's 2026 semiconductor equipment growth forecast past 30%, while ONTO locked a $240 million HBM purchase agreement running through 2027.
Teradyne's Q1 revenue surged 87% to $1.28 billion with roughly 70% tied directly to AI demand, as net income jumped 303%.
This lithium producer surpassed a $1B private valuation, joining some of America's most powerful startups. Now you can invest in EnergyX alongside global giants like General Motors, but only through July 16. (sponsor)
Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) just told the Street its semiconductor equipment business will grow more than 30% in calendar 2026, an upward revision from a prior bar of 20%. That is the sound of an AI fab CapEx supercycle shifting from thesis to invoice, and the picks-and-shovel names selling into every foundry, HBM stack and gate-all-around node are the ones cashing the checks. Five stocks sit directly under that spending fire hose. Here is where the money is moving, in order.
Onto Innovation (NYSE:ONTO) is the name most retail investors still cannot spell, but it sits at the exact chokepoint AI needs: inspection and metrology for HBM stacks, 2.5D logic and gate-all-around devices. When TSMC and SK hynix bolt an accelerator together, Onto's Dragonfly and Atlas tools decide whether the die passes or scraps. That is process control leverage on the fastest-growing corner of the fab, well beyond commoditized deposition.
Teradyne's Q1 revenue surged 87% to $1.28 billion with roughly 70% tied directly to AI demand, as net income jumped 303%.
This lithium producer surpassed a $1B private valuation, joining some of America's most powerful startups. Now you can invest in EnergyX alongside global giants like General Motors, but only through July 16. (sponsor)
Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) just told the Street its semiconductor equipment business will grow more than 30% in calendar 2026, an upward revision from a prior bar of 20%. That is the sound of an AI fab CapEx supercycle shifting from thesis to invoice, and the picks-and-shovel names selling into every foundry, HBM stack and gate-all-around node are the ones cashing the checks. Five stocks sit directly under that spending fire hose. Here is where the money is moving, in order.
Onto Innovation (NYSE:ONTO) is the name most retail investors still cannot spell, but it sits at the exact chokepoint AI needs: inspection and metrology for HBM stacks, 2.5D logic and gate-all-around devices. When TSMC and SK hynix bolt an accelerator together, Onto's Dragonfly and Atlas tools decide whether the die passes or scraps. That is process control leverage on the fastest-growing corner of the fab, well beyond commoditized deposition.
2 months ago
Brent crude has fallen more than 20% in the past month, sliding from triple digits during the worst of the Iran war to around $72 a barrel today. WTI sits near $70. That kind of move usually means one thing: the crisis is over. It isn't, not quite.
The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, spent nearly four months effectively shut after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28. Iran mined the strait, fired on tankers and closed the lane to anyone it considered hostile. The U.S. and Iran signed an interim memorandum of understanding on June 17 meant to reopen Hormuz to toll-free traffic and wind the war down over a 60-day window.
It hasn't gone smoothly. Iran briefly reclosed the strait in April over what it called ceasefire violations. As recently as June 25 through 28, Iran and the U.S. traded a fresh round of strikes: drones hit a container ship, the U.S. retaliated, and Tehran hit a vessel carrying Qatari oil before both sides agreed to pause ahead of new talks in Doha. Shipping is still moving under a daily quota system run by Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy, hundreds of vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, and war-risk insurance premiums are still many times above pre-war levels.
Call it half-open. Saudi Arabia has started loading tankers again at Ras Tanura, and the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are all pushing more crude onto the water, with Gulf flows reportedly climbing back to roughly 75% of prewar levels. That's enough to crater oil prices and scramble the math for nearly every energy stock with Middle East exposure, even as the underlying conflict simmers.
That combination, falling prices, a still-fragile peace, and a region racing to restore lost output, creates an odd set of winners. Some obvious oil and gas names are nursing real wounds from the war while betting on a clean recovery. Others made their money from the chaos itself and now have to prove they can hold onto it once the chaos fades. Here are five stocks caught in that transition.
The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, spent nearly four months effectively shut after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28. Iran mined the strait, fired on tankers and closed the lane to anyone it considered hostile. The U.S. and Iran signed an interim memorandum of understanding on June 17 meant to reopen Hormuz to toll-free traffic and wind the war down over a 60-day window.
It hasn't gone smoothly. Iran briefly reclosed the strait in April over what it called ceasefire violations. As recently as June 25 through 28, Iran and the U.S. traded a fresh round of strikes: drones hit a container ship, the U.S. retaliated, and Tehran hit a vessel carrying Qatari oil before both sides agreed to pause ahead of new talks in Doha. Shipping is still moving under a daily quota system run by Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy, hundreds of vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, and war-risk insurance premiums are still many times above pre-war levels.
Call it half-open. Saudi Arabia has started loading tankers again at Ras Tanura, and the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are all pushing more crude onto the water, with Gulf flows reportedly climbing back to roughly 75% of prewar levels. That's enough to crater oil prices and scramble the math for nearly every energy stock with Middle East exposure, even as the underlying conflict simmers.
That combination, falling prices, a still-fragile peace, and a region racing to restore lost output, creates an odd set of winners. Some obvious oil and gas names are nursing real wounds from the war while betting on a clean recovery. Others made their money from the chaos itself and now have to prove they can hold onto it once the chaos fades. Here are five stocks caught in that transition.
3 months ago
Picture the last time you were stuck in bad traffic. Awful traffic -- like in Atlanta, New York, or L.A. The kind that draws out the grumpiest side of us all, the ******* per-to-bumper, stop-and-go traffic -- a long red line on the GPS -- with several chokepoints and squeezes, and no end in sight.
That kind of traffic is no laughing matter to drivers or city planners. But thanks to Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), traffic like that could one day inspire you to take an alternative route in the sky.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Call them flying cars -- or taxis, or shuttles -- the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles Joby is designing have immense potential to revolutionize the transportation industry. Despite the recent sell-off of Joby stock, that potential is looking less and less imaginary by the week. Here's why I'd be considering Joby if you're a growth stock investor.
Joby Aviation is widely recognized as the front-runner in the race to certify an eVTOL aircraft in the U.S.
That kind of traffic is no laughing matter to drivers or city planners. But thanks to Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), traffic like that could one day inspire you to take an alternative route in the sky.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Call them flying cars -- or taxis, or shuttles -- the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles Joby is designing have immense potential to revolutionize the transportation industry. Despite the recent sell-off of Joby stock, that potential is looking less and less imaginary by the week. Here's why I'd be considering Joby if you're a growth stock investor.
Joby Aviation is widely recognized as the front-runner in the race to certify an eVTOL aircraft in the U.S.
3 months ago
In the commodities **** et class in May 2026, ICE cocoa futures were the only commodity to post just below a double-digit percentage gain. Palladium, WTI, Brent crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, gasoline crack spreads, frozen concentrated orange juice, and Ethereum declined by over 10%. The leading stock market indices moved higher, while the long bond futures were steady. The dollar index rose by 0.95%. The long bond futures fell by 0.47%. A higher dollar and elevated interest rates weighed on many commodity prices.
A continued ceasefire and hopes of a settlement between Iran and the United States that opens the Strait of Hormuz, a critical logistical chokepoint for crude oil, sent crude oil, oil products, crack spreads, and fertilizer prices lower in May.
Oil Prices Soar as Iran Shuts Down US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations
Oil Prices Soar as Iran Halts US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations
Nat-Gas Prices Fall Back on Cooler Forecasts for the East
A continued ceasefire and hopes of a settlement between Iran and the United States that opens the Strait of Hormuz, a critical logistical chokepoint for crude oil, sent crude oil, oil products, crack spreads, and fertilizer prices lower in May.
Oil Prices Soar as Iran Shuts Down US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations
Oil Prices Soar as Iran Halts US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations
Nat-Gas Prices Fall Back on Cooler Forecasts for the East
3 months ago
DUBAI, June 1 (Reuters) - Iran's Tasnim news agency said on Monday that Tehran's negotiating team is stopping exchanges of messages with the United States through mediators due to attacks on Lebanon, as diplomatic efforts to end the three-month-old Iran war continue.
The agency said Iran and the Resistance Front, which includes its Shiite allies in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, have set an agenda to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts, including the Bab El Mandeb Strait, in order to "punish" Israel and its supporters.
If the Houthis, Iran's allies in Yemen, open a new front in the conflict, one obvious target would be the Bab El Mandeb Strait off the coast of Yemen, a key shipping chokepoint and narrow passageway that controls sea traffic towards the Suez Canal.
"Violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The U.S. and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X on Monday, referring to Israeli operations in Lebanon.
The war launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 has killed thousands of people, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. It has also caused global economic pain by pushing up energy prices since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global supply route for oil and liquefied natural gas.
The agency said Iran and the Resistance Front, which includes its Shiite allies in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, have set an agenda to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts, including the Bab El Mandeb Strait, in order to "punish" Israel and its supporters.
If the Houthis, Iran's allies in Yemen, open a new front in the conflict, one obvious target would be the Bab El Mandeb Strait off the coast of Yemen, a key shipping chokepoint and narrow passageway that controls sea traffic towards the Suez Canal.
"Violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The U.S. and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X on Monday, referring to Israeli operations in Lebanon.
The war launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 has killed thousands of people, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. It has also caused global economic pain by pushing up energy prices since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global supply route for oil and liquefied natural gas.
5 months ago
The Latest: Standoff escalates after Iran closes Strait of Hormuz over US blockade
Iran reversed its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
The escalating standoff over the critical chokepoint threatened to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and push the two countries toward renewed conflict, even as mediators expressed confidence a new deal was within reach.
The strait is closed until the U.S. blockade is lifted, Iran’s Revolutionary Gu
Iran reversed its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
The escalating standoff over the critical chokepoint threatened to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and push the two countries toward renewed conflict, even as mediators expressed confidence a new deal was within reach.
The strait is closed until the U.S. blockade is lifted, Iran’s Revolutionary Gu
5 months ago
4 ways Trump has suggested the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened — and why they're a tough lift
President Donald Trump made clear Tuesday that the fate of the Iranian people — and their civilization — is in his hands as he threatens to bomb them back to the “stone ages.”
But the Iranian regime has a trump card too: continuing its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint so vital that decisions made today could determine the global economy for months, even years, to come. Oil and gas shortages as a result of Iran’s blockade have already caused a crisis in parts of Asia
President Donald Trump made clear Tuesday that the fate of the Iranian people — and their civilization — is in his hands as he threatens to bomb them back to the “stone ages.”
But the Iranian regime has a trump card too: continuing its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint so vital that decisions made today could determine the global economy for months, even years, to come. Oil and gas shortages as a result of Iran’s blockade have already caused a crisis in parts of Asia
