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China cut crude imports to 7.8 million bpd in May, accounting for 74% of the entire global trade decrease, while keeping its 1.4 billion barrel reserve intact.
The Hormuz closure removed 14% of global supply yet prices climbed just 30%, a fraction of the 130% spike during the 1973 OPEC embargo.
When China's August import data rebounds, the cushion keeping US gas near $3.85 vanishes, making that single data point oil's most critical warning signal.
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The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil, was declared closed again on July 11 by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy. Within 72 hours, US forces struck roughly 140 military targets, Iran launched missile and drone retaliation against the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, and Washington reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude jumped more than 4% on July 13 to $79.26, its highest level since June 22, and by this morning was trading around $84 to $86, up roughly 5% on the week, according to CNBC and Al Jazeera. The two largest oil ETFs are up roughly 10% to 13% over the past week.
3 months ago

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