Morgan Stanley has cut Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) to Underweight on September 11, 2026. Semaglutide, the underlying molecule for Wegovy and Ozempic, generates roughly 75% of 2026 revenue. Morgan Stanley models that it will still represent 59% of total sales when its patent protection expires in 2031. And according to the firm, the valuation does not price in the impact it has on Novo's terminal value. The stock, currently trading at 10.6x earnings and down 33% from its 52-week high, slipped another 2% following the call. At this point, the question isn't about whether the patent cliff is real or not, but whether the 10x multiple reflects an actual bargain.
Semaglutide loses exclusivity in Europe in 2031 and the US in 2032. And Morgan Stanley believes Novo's oral-obesity business, projected to reach $10 billion by 2031, could not offset the pricing collapse after the arrival of generics. Growth decelerates to a 4% compound rate between 2027 and 2030. If the deceleration continues, it will justify 10x earnings as a fair price instead of a cheap one.
The 10.6x multiple already prices aggressive pessimism into a market leader of one of the fastest-growing drug classes in history. Morgan Stanley fueled the pessimism by discounting a 2031 cliff five years earlier. However, pharmaceutical patent expirations frequently face extensions and prove difficult to time. Second, the ***** umption that oral obesity treatments cannot offset patent losses relies on oral semaglutide being the bridge. But Novo's next-generation portfolio, including CagriSema and amycretin, offers a significant defense against the patent cliff. This remains unproven, however, specifically after CagriSema's earlier weight-loss data failed to impress, yet Morgan Stanley's terminal-value model discounts this pipeline almost entirely. The company is also expanding its franchise. On September 7, the STEP Young trial hit its endpoint in children aged six to twelve, strengthening the base its successors inherit.
The smart money is leaning in. As per the Insider Monkey database, 59 hedge funds held NVO in the second quarter of 2026, up from 55 in the first, indicating a slight increase in the modest institutional interest in the stock. Short interest on the ADR is negligible at about 0.7%. The positioning reflects a beaten-down value stock quietly seeing institutional accumulation while Wall Street turns increasingly bearish.

#semaglutide #oral

Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:ASND) announced on September 14 that it will regain exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize TransCon products in metabolic and cardiovascular diseases following the termination of its collaboration with Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO).
The rights include once-monthly TransCon Semaglutide, an investigational long-acting prodrug of semaglutide intended for obesity and type 2 diabetes. Neither party will have continuing financial obligations to the other. Once termination becomes effective and the rights revert, management plans to initiate multiple programs across rare and large indications.
The investment question is whether greater control over future products can justify the resources needed to develop them.
Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:ASND) would regain flexibility over which indications to pursue, how quickly to advance candidates, and whether to seek another partner. Successful independent development could retain more of a product's commercial economics, while a new collaboration could provide another way to share costs and risk.
Monthly dosing offers a clear development objective. If clinical studies demonstrate effective treatment with acceptable tolerability, fewer injections could make long-term therapy more convenient. That potential benefit would matter most if it helps patients stay on treatment without sacrificing outcomes.

#ascendis #pharma #asnd #regain

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) says its newly launched oral obesity drug Foundayo has captured more than 30% of new U.S. patients starting oral weight-loss medicines, a notable early gain against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill. Reuters reports that Wegovy initially held roughly 90% of the oral market, making Lilly's rapid share capture an important sign that the oral GLP-1 market is becoming a two-player competition rather than a Novo-dominated segment. The broader U.S. obesity-drug market is expected to exceed $100 billion annually by 2030, with oral treatments potentially accounting for more than one-third of GLP-1 use.
The timing is strategically important for Lilly because Foundayo was only launched in the U.S. in April 2026. The drug starts at $149 per month for self-pay patients and can cost as little as $25 for eligible commercially insured patients, while Medicare beneficiaries can access it through the GLP-1 Bridge program at $50 per month. Lilly's SEC filing says Mounjaro and Zepbound already represented 65% of its revenue in the first six months of 2026, highlighting both the importance of the incretin franchise and the opportunity for Foundayo to broaden Lilly's cardiometabolic revenue base.
The strongest bullish implication is that Foundayo appears to be overcoming the biggest behavioral barrier in obesity treatment: patients' preference for an oral medicine over an injection. Capturing more than 30% of new oral patients only months after launch suggests Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) is establishing meaningful competitive positioning before the oral GLP-1 market fully scales. Foundayo's formulation also has a practical advantage because it can be taken at any time of day without food or water restrictions, while Lilly's clinical data showed an average 27.3-pound, or 12.4%, weight reduction at the highest dose among patients who remained on treatment in ATTAIN-1.
The commercial opportunity could become considerably larger if Foundayo gains indications beyond obesity. Lilly reported that in the ACHIEVE-3 trial, Foundayo produced a 57.1% greater relative reduction in A1C and a 73.6% greater relative reduction in body weight compared with oral semaglutide 14 mg. Lilly submitted Foundayo for type 2 diabetes in the U.S., EU, and **** an, potentially expanding the addressable market beyond weight management.
The early oral-market traction also complements Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)'s existing injectable franchise rather than simply cannibalizing it. A Lilly trial found that patients switching from maximum-tolerated Wegovy to Foundayo maintained all but 0.9 kg of their previous weight loss after one year, while patients switching from maximum-dose Zepbound to Foundayo maintained all but 5.0 kg. That suggests Foundayo could serve as a maintenance or lower-burden treatment within Lilly's broader obesity portfolio, increasing lifetime value per patient rather than limiting the opportunity to new prescriptions.

#patients #weight #c

Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO)'s decision to rebrand its day-to-day identity as "Novo" and launch a cultural reset is primarily a strategic response to the company's loss of momentum in the obesity-drug market, rather than a financial restructuring in itself. Reuters reports that the company is trying to regain competitiveness as pressure from Eli Lilly intensifies. The move comes as Novo prepares to unveil new strategic ambitions at its September 21 Capital Markets Day, making the cultural reset potentially important if it leads to faster decision-making, stronger commercial execution and a more aggressive R&D approach.
The underlying business still has substantial scale to protect. Novo generated DKK 309.1 billion of 2025 sales and DKK 127.7 billion of operating profit, while obesity-care sales rose 31% at constant exchange rates to DKK 82.3 billion. However, the company also spent around DKK 8 billion on its transformation in 2025, and its diabetes value-market share fell 3.6 percentage points to 30.1%. The reset therefore comes at a critical point: Novo remains the global obesity-market leader, with a 59.6% branded-volume share in 2025, but Lilly is rapidly narrowing the competitive gap.
A successful cultural reset could improve Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO)'s execution at a time when the company needs to convert its scientific and commercial ******* ets into faster growth. Reuters reported that CEO Mike Doustdar is already seeking to accelerate R&D and streamline decision-making following investor concerns about the pipeline and competition from Lilly. If the reorganization reduces internal bureaucracy and improves the speed of clinical, regulatory and commercial decisions, it could help Novo extract more value from its existing obesity portfolio while advancing next-generation treatments before the semaglutide patent cliff expected early next decade.
The company also has ******* ets that give a cultural and operational reset something concrete to build around. Wegovy was available in 52 countries by the end of 2025, while the company's higher-dose Wegovy achieved 20.7% weight loss in Phase 3 studies and its oral Wegovy achieved 16.6% weight loss. More recently, Wegovy received approval in China for MASH, expanding its potential beyond weight management and cardiovascular benefits into another large metabolic-disease market. If Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) can combine these products with better execution, the reset could support higher patient volumes and extend the commercial life of its GLP-1 franchise, helping defend revenue and cash flow despite pricing pressure.

#nordisk #lilly

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) says its newly launched oral obesity drug Foundayo has captured more than 30% of new U.S. patients starting oral weight-loss medicines, a notable early gain against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill. Reuters reports that Wegovy initially held roughly 90% of the oral market, making Lilly's rapid share capture an important sign that the oral GLP-1 market is becoming a two-player competition rather than a Novo-dominated segment. The broader U.S. obesity-drug market is expected to exceed $100 billion annually by 2030, with oral treatments potentially accounting for more than one-third of GLP-1 use.
The timing is strategically important for Lilly because Foundayo was only launched in the U.S. in April 2026. The drug starts at $149 per month for self-pay patients and can cost as little as $25 for eligible commercially insured patients, while Medicare beneficiaries can access it through the GLP-1 Bridge program at $50 per month. Lilly's SEC filing says Mounjaro and Zepbound already represented 65% of its revenue in the first six months of 2026, highlighting both the importance of the incretin franchise and the opportunity for Foundayo to broaden Lilly's cardiometabolic revenue base.
The strongest bullish implication is that Foundayo appears to be overcoming the biggest behavioral barrier in obesity treatment: patients' preference for an oral medicine over an injection. Capturing more than 30% of new oral patients only months after launch suggests Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) is establishing meaningful competitive positioning before the oral GLP-1 market fully scales. Foundayo's formulation also has a practical advantage because it can be taken at any time of day without food or water restrictions, while Lilly's clinical data showed an average 27.3-pound, or 12.4%, weight reduction at the highest dose among patients who remained on treatment in ATTAIN-1.
The commercial opportunity could become considerably larger if Foundayo gains indications beyond obesity. Lilly reported that in the ACHIEVE-3 trial, Foundayo produced a 57.1% greater relative reduction in A1C and a 73.6% greater relative reduction in body weight compared with oral semaglutide 14 mg. Lilly submitted Foundayo for type 2 diabetes in the U.S., EU, and ***** an, potentially expanding the addressable market beyond weight management.
The early oral-market traction also complements Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)'s existing injectable franchise rather than simply cannibalizing it. A Lilly trial found that patients switching from maximum-tolerated Wegovy to Foundayo maintained all but 0.9 kg of their previous weight loss after one year, while patients switching from maximum-dose Zepbound to Foundayo maintained all but 5.0 kg. That suggests Foundayo could serve as a maintenance or lower-burden treatment within Lilly's broader obesity portfolio, increasing lifetime value per patient rather than limiting the opportunity to new prescriptions.

#weight

Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO)'s decision to rebrand its day-to-day identity as "Novo" and launch a cultural reset is primarily a strategic response to the company's loss of momentum in the obesity-drug market, rather than a financial restructuring in itself. Reuters reports that the company is trying to regain competitiveness as pressure from Eli Lilly intensifies. The move comes as Novo prepares to unveil new strategic ambitions at its September 21 Capital Markets Day, making the cultural reset potentially important if it leads to faster decision-making, stronger commercial execution and a more aggressive R&D approach.
The underlying business still has substantial scale to protect. Novo generated DKK 309.1 billion of 2025 sales and DKK 127.7 billion of operating profit, while obesity-care sales rose 31% at constant exchange rates to DKK 82.3 billion. However, the company also spent around DKK 8 billion on its transformation in 2025, and its diabetes value-market share fell 3.6 percentage points to 30.1%. The reset therefore comes at a critical point: Novo remains the global obesity-market leader, with a 59.6% branded-volume share in 2025, but Lilly is rapidly narrowing the competitive gap.
A successful cultural reset could improve Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO)'s execution at a time when the company needs to convert its scientific and commercial ***** ets into faster growth. Reuters reported that CEO Mike Doustdar is already seeking to accelerate R&D and streamline decision-making following investor concerns about the pipeline and competition from Lilly. If the reorganization reduces internal bureaucracy and improves the speed of clinical, regulatory and commercial decisions, it could help Novo extract more value from its existing obesity portfolio while advancing next-generation treatments before the semaglutide patent cliff expected early next decade.
The company also has ***** ets that give a cultural and operational reset something concrete to build around. Wegovy was available in 52 countries by the end of 2025, while the company's higher-dose Wegovy achieved 20.7% weight loss in Phase 3 studies and its oral Wegovy achieved 16.6% weight loss. More recently, Wegovy received approval in China for MASH, expanding its potential beyond weight management and cardiovascular benefits into another large metabolic-disease market. If Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) can combine these products with better execution, the reset could support higher patient volumes and extend the commercial life of its GLP-1 franchise, helping defend revenue and cash flow despite pricing pressure.

#cultural #company #lilly

(NewsNation) — A new study found that a rare but serious brain condition has been identified in a small number of people taking popular weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Wernicke encephalopathy is a rare neurological disorder caused by a severe deficiency of vitamin B1, also known as thiamine.
GLP-1 prescriptions for kids up more than 30,000% since 2019
Researchers identified 15 cases reported in 2023 and 2024 among people taking GLP-1 medications containing semaglutide, found in Ozempic and Wegovy, or tirzepatide, found in Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Vitamin B1 is essential for proper nerve function. Without enough of it, patients can develop confusion, problems with balance and coordination, and abnormal eye movements.

#zepbound #vitamin #identified

By Andrew Silver
SHANGHAI, July 9 (Reuters) - China will add a second GLP-1 drug, used to treat diabetes, to a list of essential ‌drugs all public hospitals are required to prioritise having in their ‌formulary, a government statement said on Thursday.
China, the world's second-biggest pharmaceutical market, has the highest number of adults with diabetes in the world, according to estimates from the International Diabetes Federation.
Justin ***** , a partner at global strategy consultancy L.E.K. Consulting in Shanghai, told Reuters the essential listing would mean the drug, semaglutide, should be available ‌even in remote rural ⁠hospitals.
So far only the Ozempic brand version has approval, but ***** said the inclusion of semaglutide in the National Essential ⁠Drug List would also "pave the way for generics to be broadly listed" once they are approved in China.

(NewsNation) — Researchers said they have developed a minimally invasive procedure that may help people keep weight off after stopping popular medications like Ozempic and semaglutide, addressing one of the biggest challenges facing the multibillion-dollar weight-loss drug industry.
The procedure, called duodenal mucosal resurfacing, uses controlled heat to renew the lining of the upper small intestine, potentially "resetting" a person's metabolism to prevent the common weight regain that occurs when patients discontinue GLP-1 medications.
"Finding a treatment that allows patients to stop these medications without weight regain or loss of metabolic benefit is a huge unmet need," said Dr. Shelby Sullivan, director of the Endoscopic Bariatric and Metabolic Program at Dartmouth Health Weight Center and lead author of the research said.
Is an AI doctor prescribing medication without a human physician?
Nearly 70% of people who stop GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy regain much of the weight they lost, often within 18 months. The cost of ongoing medication, side effects and a reluctance to take drugs indefinitely drive many patients to discontinue use.

Among those taking GLP-1 medications for weight loss, exercise rates are decreasing, according to new research.
The study, set to be presented at ENDO 2026 (the Endocrine Society's annual meeting) in Chicago this week, found that adults with obesity who lost weight with a GLP-1, such as Ozempic or Wegovy, "significantly reduced" their physical activity.
In an Endocrine Society press release, study lead Sajana Maharjan, MD, of HSHS St. John's Hospital in Springfield, Illinois, noted that GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide, liraglutide, dulaglutide and tirzepatide reduce both fat and lean muscle mass.
'Wild West' Peptide Craze Surges Beyond Glp-1s As Fda Faces Pressure To Ease Access
This means physical activity is "essential for preserving strength and long-term health," she said.

New WHO guidance signals major shift in obesity treatment

The World Health Organization on Monday released new guidance on GLP-1 medications for adults with obesity, recommending their long-term, continuous use when clinically appropriate. The medications covered include semaglutide (Wegovy), liraglutide (Saxenda) and tirzepatide (Zepbound).
The recommendations, published in the medical journal JAMA, emphasize that these medications alone are not a solution to treating the global obesity epidemic. Obesity is a chronic disease that needs lifelong care and is best treated with long-term GLP-

Microdoses of weight loss drugs like Ozempic may slow down ageing and help increase longevity, a new study suggests.
Originally developed for treating diabetes, the drug semaglutide is now also used for weight loss, causing it to surge in popularity worldwide.
The drug, sold under brand names like Ozempic and Wegovy, mimics the action of the naturally occurring GLP-1 hormone in the gut and the brain to regulate appetite, making people feel fuller for longer.
A new trend is sweeping the internet, with reports of some people taking the drug in very small doses for longevity even though health