AARP projects a 3.6% Social Security COLA for 2027, adding roughly $75 monthly to the average check, while the Senior Citizens League forecasts 3.5%.
The official COLA drops October 14, but the Medicare Part B premium that offsets it won't be announced until November, leaving budgeters with incomplete data.
Hold-harmless rules protect most retirees from net payment cuts, but higher-income enrollees facing IRMAA surcharges and newly enrolled Medicare recipients get no such protection.
Read More: Learn 7 secret wealth tips high net worth investors use that most investors miss (sponsor)
The projected Social Security raise for 2027 is the biggest in years, and it is also a moving target, according to recent reports. In the same week, two of the most closely watched forecasters revised their estimates in opposite directions. Neither is official, and the actual number will not be announced until October; the Medicare premium that determines how much of the raise reaches a retiree's bank account will not be announced until November. Anyone budgeting today is working with half the picture.

#medicare #announced #november

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% from the month before in August, the Labor Department estimated Sept. 11, in line with forecasters' expectations.
A spike in gas prices drove the increase, rising 3.9% over the month as the Iran war further limited the global oil supply. Over the year, prices for all items rose 3.4%, matching July's pace. That was still enough to surpass workers' paychecks, which rose on average 3.1% over the same period.
After reaching a peak of 9.1% in 2022, year-over-year inflation had made its way back to 2.4% at the start of 2026. It jumped to 3.4% in March driven by rising oil and gas prices following the start of the war. After hitting 4.2% in May, it slowed to 3.5% in June and to 3.4% in July.
It, along with the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, remain above the central bank's 2% annual target.
The Fed typically raises its benchmark for interest rates across the country to help tame inflation and lowers it to stimulate the job market. After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Aug. 28 policymakers' focus should be on rising prices and U.S. employers added a surprising 162,000 jobs last month, markets are betting on a rate hike after the Fed's next meeting on Sept. 16. However, one is not guaranteed.

#rising

In an unusual coincidence, a new storm forming in the Atlantic Ocean is set to be named "Dolly" on the heels of beloved country icon Dolly Parton's death
Forecasters say the storm has a 60 percent chance of forming this week
The National Hurricane Center has no plans to skip over the name
The next storm of this year's hurricane season is set to be named "Dolly" — and coincidentally, it could form on the heels of Dolly Parton's death.
The National Hurricane Center has a set number of lists, which include one pre-determined name for every letter of the alphabet, that are used on a rotational basis, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

#hurricane #national #center #death

HONOLULU (AP) — Communities still recovering from last weekend's hurricane in Hawaii could get pounded again in coming days from another tropical system gaining strength over warm Pacific waters.
Hurricane Lala tore roofs off houses, uprooted trees, covered roads in mud and rocks and left many households without electricity. With thousands of homes and businesses still in the dark Thursday, forecasters warned yet another tropical cyclone is likely to approach the islands soon.
A depression moving west and northwest could become a tropical storm in the coming hours and pass near or south of Hawaii's Big Island over the weekend or early next week, the U.S. Central Pacific Hurricane Center said. That system could dump up to 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain on the Big Island and trigger life-threatening flooding, mudslides and rip currents, it added.
Forecasters said the disturbance had top sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was located at midday Thursday about 900 miles (1,445 kilometers) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
"There's definitely tension in the air'' at the thought of more rain in communities that floodwaters turned into rivers, said Tiffany Edwards Hunt, a teacher living in Keaau, on the east side of the Big Island. "There were some areas that were completely washed out."

#thursday #forecasters

Galle weather forecast: Day-by-day rain chances for IND vs SL 1st Test originally appeared on Cricket News. Add Cricket News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Rain threatens to disrupt most of the five-day opening Test between India and Sri Lanka starting August 15 in Galle.
Day one carries the highest rain risk at 90 per cent, while conditions gradually improve as the match progresses.
Heavy pre-match downpours have already cut short both teams' practice sessions ahead of India's historic 600th Test.
Rain looks set to gatecrash India's landmark 600th Test, as forecasters have warned of regular interruptions throughout the opening match against Sri Lanka at Galle.

#match

Galle weather forecast: Day-by-day rain chances for IND vs SL 1st Test originally appeared on Cricket News. Add Cricket News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Rain threatens to disrupt most of the five-day opening Test between India and Sri Lanka starting August 15 in Galle.
Day one carries the highest rain risk at 90 per cent, while conditions gradually improve as the match progresses.
Heavy pre-match downpours have already cut short both teams' practice sessions ahead of India's historic 600th Test.
Rain looks set to gatecrash India's landmark 600th Test, as forecasters have warned of regular interruptions throughout the opening match against Sri Lanka at Galle.

#India

For most of the last two decades, the anxiety in power planning was about demand: would consumption grow fast enough to justify new capacity, and how would an aging fleet keep pace? That question has inverted. Demand is no longer the uncertain variable—it is the one thing forecasters are confident about. The uncertainty now sits on the supply side: whether the workforce, the equipment, and the political and economic conditions needed to build and run generation can keep up with a demand curve that is accelerating for the first time in a generation.The International Energy Agency (IEA) put a number on the demand side in its Electricity 2026 report, projecting that global electricity demand will grow by an average of 3.6% per year through 2030, roughly 50% faster than the average over the previous decade, driven by industrial electrification, electric vehicles, air conditioning, and data centers. For the first time in three decades outside of a crisis period, electricity demand has begun to grow faster than the global economy itself. The demand is coming. The open question is deliverability.That framing—supply-side constraints as the binding risk—runs through recent research from Verdantix, a UK-based **** yst firm whose Industrial Dislocation Index scores nine major economies on how far their operating conditions have diverged from their own 30-year norms. For power generation specifically, Verdantix identifies four factors that carry disproportionate weight: politics, geo-economic friction, energy prices, and production inputs.
The clearest signal in the Verdantix data for a power audience is the energy sub-index, which scores each country on how far its energy position has moved from its own historical baseline. The spread is wide. The U.S. sits at the resilient end, with the lowest energy-dislocation score in the study at 1.83, a reflection of its position as a net exporter of natural gas, crude, and coal, with electricity and fuel costs below the global average. At the other end is the UK, at 7.33, the highest in the study—a measure of how sharply its energy position has diverged from what UK industry was historically built around. Germany (5.67) and France (5.50) sit high as well; **** an (4.50), India (3.50), China (3.17), Saudi Arabia (3.00), and Canada (2.67) fall in between.What that gap looks like on the ground varies by market, and Verdantix's country profiles fill it in. The UK's high score traces to underinvestment in nuclear, the grid-modernization costs of shifting to decentralized renewables, and windfall taxes on oil and gas—a combination severe enough that Verdantix notes chemical producers citing UK energy costs as a reason to pull back operations. France is Europe's largest net electricity exporter thanks to its nuclear fleet, but that same concentration is a vulnerability: recent questions about the quality of French reactor maintenance, Verdantix observes, show how quickly a strength can turn into a present-day problem. ****

As many Americans struggle to make ends meet, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has pledged to bring inflation back to its 2% target, but it remains unclear exactly how he plans to get there as the central bank heads into its July meeting.
The Fed often finds itself at a crossroads, balancing its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. It has two main tools it uses to address both – its balance sheet and the federal funds rate, a benchmark for interest rates. The Fed typically raises its target range for the rate to tame inflation and lowers it to stimulate the job market.
After three months of accelerating inflation, it slowed in June, though some forecasters expect it may tick back up amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities. And after three months of positive job growth, U.S. employer hiring fell in June — leaving the Fed to sort out whether these recent swings are just noise or the start of new trends.
The Fed may also be at a crossroads when it comes to delivering on Warsh's promise of price stability for U.S. consumers. Many Americans don't want higher interest rates on their credit cards and personal loans, but they also don't want prices to keep rising. Raising the Fed's benchmark interest rate could help cool inflation, but it would also make borrowing more expensive.
Dean Lyulkin, CEO of Cardiff, a small-business loan company, said Warsh's refusal to provide forward guidance has made the outcome of the July meeting difficult to predict.

#rate

While Tropical Storm Bertha continues to spin in the Gulf, Hurricane Fausto is churning up rough seas in the Pacific, and could impact Hawaii next week, forecasters said.
Although the center of the 80-mph hurricane is more than 1,000 miles from the U.S. West Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center, "swells generated by Fausto are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and the coast of southern California."
"These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the hurricane center said.
The National Weather Service office in San Diego warned of "elevated surf" and "strong currents" for beachgoers there from Thursday through Sunday.
Next week, the weather across Hawaii "will depend on the eventual track and intensity of Tropical Cyclone Fausto," the weather service office in Honolulu said.

#fausto #hawaii #national

Hazardous smoke from Canada's wildfires is spreading across the Northeast and Midwest, triggering air quality alerts, health warnings and concerns that conditions could worsen in the days ahead.
Some of the country's worst air conditions were reported Wednesday, July 15, in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while New York Governor Kathy Hochul said on social media that smoke and haze from Canadian wildfires were creating unhealthy air conditions across the state.
New York City is already feeling the impact ahead of Sunday's World Cup final in neighboring New Jersey, with wildfire smoke pushing air quality into unhealthy territory. Officials urged residents to reduce strenuous outdoor activity and take extra breaks outside as forecasters warned smoky conditions could persist through the end of the week.
Here's what to know.

(NEXSTAR) – El Niño is gaining steam. National forecasters released an update on the climate phenomenon this week, saying it's now predicted to last longer and grow stronger than previously thought.
There's a 97% chance this year's El Niño will spill over into next year, lasting until spring 2027, the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. There's an 81% chance it will grow to be "very strong" by its peak in the early winter.
Very strong El Niños, also called "super" El Niños, are rare. If things pan out as they're predicted to, this year's "would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," according to the Climate Prediction Center.
"I think it's fair to say that, depending on [the] model, the forecasts are close to unprecedented," Michael Tippett, a Columbia University atmospheric scientist, told CNN.
A "super" El Niño doesn't necessarily mean super-strong weather impacts.

Scientists have been keeping a close eye on the tropical Pacific Ocean for months now, anticipating the emergence of an intense, "Super" El Niño that would be among the stronger events on record. Now it looks like this El Niño could set the benchmark for peak intensity, with potentially dire implications for the extreme weather events it influences worldwide.
El Niño is poised to rapidly strengthen in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the next few months and is forecast to reach the upper echelon of intensity by the time it peaks in late fall to early winter, forecasters warn.
It's already being referred to colloquially as a Super El Niño. Only a handful of events have reached that level of intensity in the last few decades, with the most recent one occurring in 2015 to 2016.
But now some computer models are predicting this El Niño could be stronger than any other event, back to at least 1950. "I think it's fair to say that, depending on [the] model, the forecasts are close to unprecedented," said Michael Tippett, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University, in an email.
⛈️ Follow El Niño's impacts near you on the CNN Weather App

Tommy Fleetwood remains optimistic about his chances at the US Open, despite a challenging second round leaving him seven shots adrift of leader Wyndham Clark, as conditions are poised to become even more formidable over the weekend.
The Englishman carded a one-over-par 71, placing him joint 22nd after Friday's play.
Fleetwood, who will again play alongside Ludvig Aberg, faced the tougher side of the draw, missing Thursday’s more favourable scoring conditions that Clark capitalised on, before battling stiff winds as the course dried out on Friday.
Forecasters predict gusts could reach 33mph on Saturday afternoon, suggesting significant shifts are possible.
Reflecting on his performance, Fleetwood admitted: "I should have shot a couple better and that’s a little bit frustrating, but at the same time you take what you get and I did a lot of good stuff and at the end of the day we’re still in a pretty good position."

(AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
Forecasters with The Weather Channel warned of rain, wind, and mosquitoes on the South Lawn of the White House Sunday as crowds planned to pack the makeshift arena for President Donald Trump’s birthday UFC fights.
More than 4,000 spectators were expected for UFC Freedom 250, with an additional 85,000-plus people expected for the viewing party at the nearby Ellipse.
But The Weather Channel painted a “chaotic” weather scene for the fights that are scheduled to kick off at 8 p.m. E.T.
“UFC Freedom 250 is facing a chaotic weather setup on the White House South Lawn, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms, heavy downpours, and wind gusts up to 34 mph threatening to delay the outdoor fights,” The Weather Channel posted to X.

Mark Zandi thinks Trump has about a week to strike an Iran deal before the US has bigger problems.
Absent a peace deal, oil prices could soar again, triggering a US recession, he said.
Other forecasters have warned that it won't be long before economic damage from the war is more visible.
The halting peace negotiations between the US and Iran need to result in a deal soon if the US is going to avoid deeper economic pain.
That's according to Moody's top economist Mark Zandi, who said Donald Trump has about a week to secure a peace deal before the effects of the war make it more likely that the economy will fall into a recession.

A bomb cyclone is headed for the Southeast: What to expect and when

Forecasters are warning that another winter storm will slam parts of the East Coast this weekend — bringing heavy snow, blizzard conditions and coastal flooding — and that it will strengthen into a bomb cyclone. The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories for southern Virginia, parts of West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia.
In North Carolina, parts of the state could see their heaviest snow in decades, while potentiall

Forecasters warn of 'dangerous travel and infrastructure impacts' for days

A massive winter storm dumped sleet, freezing rain and snow across much of the U.S. on Sunday, bringing subzero temperatures and halting air and road traffic. Tree branches and power lines snapped under the weight of ice, and hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses in the Southeast were left without electricity.
The ice and snowfall were expected to continue into Monday followed by very low temperatures which could cause “dangerous travel and infrastructure impacts” for days, the National Weather Service said.

130,000 utility customers lose power as brutal winter storm spreads across the U.S.

A fierce winter storm continued its trek across the United States on Saturday after dumping inches of snow on cities including from Little Rock, Arkansas, to Tulsa, Oklahoma.
More than 130,000 utility customers in the storm's path were without power.
The storm, expected to be the most significant so far this winter season, will impact most of the nation east of the Rocky Mountains with snow and ice, and usher in some of the coldest temperatures seen in years, forecasters have said. Americans in most of the

A severe winter storm sweeping across the central and eastern U.S. in late January 2026 is threatening states from Texas to New England with crippling freezing rain, sleet and snow. Several governors issued states of emergency as forecasters warned of hazardous travel conditions, dangerous wind chills and power outages amid bitter cold expected to linger for days.
The sudden blast may come as a shock to many Americans after a mostly mild start to winter, but that warmth may be partly contributing to the ferocity of this storm.
As atmospheric and climate scientists, we conduct research that a

Huge winter storm to blast Midwest and then target Northeast early next week

Another snowstorm expected to blanket large swaths of the United States early in the week threatens to disrupt post-Thanksgiving travel for millions of Americans heading home after the Nov. 27 holiday.
A wave of cold air will settle across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Central Plains, paving the way for snowstorms that could produce a messy mix of snow, sleet and rain, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
Forecasters say as much as 6 inches of snow could fall by Tuesday in some areas, creating chal

Ok. Curious about the differences on your outlooks than say Handry, etc as 75% of forecasters went for a HIGH risk today, and arguably was bigger than most events last year. How do you calculate your outlooks compared to other forecasters, as there must be some kind of