1 month ago
Eli Lilly (LLY) trades near $1,150, up about 52% over the past year, and is now worth more than a trillion dollars. At that size the easy read is that the big money has been made. But Lilly has barely started selling Foundayo, its oral obesity medicine, outside the United States. So how much is left? The scenario below starts from Lilly's own trailing numbers, but the growth, margin, and multiple it ***** umes are ours. It is not a forecast and not a price target.
Almost all of the upside is revenue. The scenario caps growth at 30% a year. That is well below the 49.6% Lilly grew over the past twelve months, though only a little below the roughly 32% pace of its own 2026 guide. Revenue still climbs from $79.7 billion to $175.0 billion by year three.
The engine is incretins. Mounjaro and Zepbound together made $14.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026, $6.3 billion more than a year earlier. Net margin eases to 30.7% in the scenario, so earnings roughly double.
Then the multiple takes its cut. Lilly's P/E of 38.5x already sits below its three-year average of 68.9x, and the scenario trims it further to 33.6x because slower growth will not support even today's multiple. On those ***** umptions the stock would be worth about $2,024 in three years, roughly 76% above today.
LLY
#below #roughly #revenue
Almost all of the upside is revenue. The scenario caps growth at 30% a year. That is well below the 49.6% Lilly grew over the past twelve months, though only a little below the roughly 32% pace of its own 2026 guide. Revenue still climbs from $79.7 billion to $175.0 billion by year three.
The engine is incretins. Mounjaro and Zepbound together made $14.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026, $6.3 billion more than a year earlier. Net margin eases to 30.7% in the scenario, so earnings roughly double.
Then the multiple takes its cut. Lilly's P/E of 38.5x already sits below its three-year average of 68.9x, and the scenario trims it further to 33.6x because slower growth will not support even today's multiple. On those ***** umptions the stock would be worth about $2,024 in three years, roughly 76% above today.
LLY
#below #roughly #revenue
1 month ago
Cognyte Software Ltd. (NASDAQ:CGNT) reported on September 9 that revenue for the fiscal second quarter ended July 31, 2026, increased 12.0% to $109.2 million. Total software revenue, comprising software and software services, rose 20.9% to $100.8 million.
Company-defined non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA increased 35.7% to $14.9 million. The measure adds depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation, restructuring costs, and other specified adjustments to GAAP operating income. Yet quarterly billings fell to $76.3 million from $93.0 million. The central question is whether a more profitable revenue mix can produce stronger cash generation while sustaining future growth.
The portfolio transition is visible in the revenue base. Total software revenue represented more than 92% of sales. Recurring revenue, primarily support contracts and subscription offerings, reached $56.2 million, or 51.4% of total revenue.
For Cognyte Software Ltd. (NASDAQ:CGNT), a larger recurring base could make revenue more predictable and support continued product investment. Renewals also create opportunities to expand customer relationships without rebuilding the sales pipeline from scratch. The benefit depends on retention and expansion within those accounts.
Profitability improved under both accounting measures. GAAP operating margin increased to 4.3% from 2.8%, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 13.6% from 11.3%. That combination strengthens the case that the transition is improving operating economics, even after recognizing expenses excluded from adjusted results.
#gaap #NASDAQ
Company-defined non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA increased 35.7% to $14.9 million. The measure adds depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation, restructuring costs, and other specified adjustments to GAAP operating income. Yet quarterly billings fell to $76.3 million from $93.0 million. The central question is whether a more profitable revenue mix can produce stronger cash generation while sustaining future growth.
The portfolio transition is visible in the revenue base. Total software revenue represented more than 92% of sales. Recurring revenue, primarily support contracts and subscription offerings, reached $56.2 million, or 51.4% of total revenue.
For Cognyte Software Ltd. (NASDAQ:CGNT), a larger recurring base could make revenue more predictable and support continued product investment. Renewals also create opportunities to expand customer relationships without rebuilding the sales pipeline from scratch. The benefit depends on retention and expansion within those accounts.
Profitability improved under both accounting measures. GAAP operating margin increased to 4.3% from 2.8%, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 13.6% from 11.3%. That combination strengthens the case that the transition is improving operating economics, even after recognizing expenses excluded from adjusted results.
#gaap #NASDAQ
1 month ago
US stocks fell for a second day in a row on Tuesday as investors braced for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday and monitored the fallout from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's essay on AI safety fears.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) declined 0.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.7%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tumbled more than 0.4%.
Oil prices ticked back up, with Brent crude (BZ=F) and WTI crude (CL=F) changing hands at $108 and $105 per barrel, respectively. Prices have remained elevated since Saudi Arabia shuttered its East-West pipeline and the Iranian-backed Houthis launched fresh attacks in the Middle East.
Bond yields have also shot up as investors await the next Fed policy decision. The yield on the 10-year note (^TNX) hovered around 5%. The move follows the key interest rate briefly rising overnight to its highest intraday level since 2007, underscoring concerns about rising borrowing costs, global deficits, and inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee began its September meeting on Tuesday, with traders overwhelmingly expecting a rate hike. The release of the so-called dot plot, along with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference, could offer investors clues about the prevailing winds in the Fed's monetary policy.
#federal
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) declined 0.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.7%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tumbled more than 0.4%.
Oil prices ticked back up, with Brent crude (BZ=F) and WTI crude (CL=F) changing hands at $108 and $105 per barrel, respectively. Prices have remained elevated since Saudi Arabia shuttered its East-West pipeline and the Iranian-backed Houthis launched fresh attacks in the Middle East.
Bond yields have also shot up as investors await the next Fed policy decision. The yield on the 10-year note (^TNX) hovered around 5%. The move follows the key interest rate briefly rising overnight to its highest intraday level since 2007, underscoring concerns about rising borrowing costs, global deficits, and inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee began its September meeting on Tuesday, with traders overwhelmingly expecting a rate hike. The release of the so-called dot plot, along with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference, could offer investors clues about the prevailing winds in the Fed's monetary policy.
#federal
1 month ago
Options traders can spend hours searching for the right stock, studying charts, comparing fundamentals and trying to predict the market's next move.
But Barchart expert Rick Orford argues there's another question worth answering before any of that:
Options Flow Alert: Institutional Money Piles Into AMD Stock
Volatility Insurance for Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock Potentially Inspires a Contrarian Outlook
Unusual Options Activity Points to Big Institutional Bets on These 3 Industries
#options #institutional #money
But Barchart expert Rick Orford argues there's another question worth answering before any of that:
Options Flow Alert: Institutional Money Piles Into AMD Stock
Volatility Insurance for Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock Potentially Inspires a Contrarian Outlook
Unusual Options Activity Points to Big Institutional Bets on These 3 Industries
#options #institutional #money
2 months ago
Reuters reported that President Donald Trump bought between $15,001 and $50,000 in ***** e Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares on June 23, according to a financial disclosure signed August 12 and made public August 22.
The purchase, part of more than 1,000 stock trades Trump made that month, came two weeks after ***** eX's June 12 IPO, the biggest in U.S. history, which valued the company at $1.77 trillion. White House spokesman Davis Ingle said third-party financial institutions manage the president's portfolio independently and that "neither President Trump nor any member of his family has any ability to direct, influence, or provide input" on the investments.
Reuters previously reported that Small Business Administration head Kelly Loeffler, a Trump cabinet member, also earned millions from ***** eX-related investments.
Copyright: sdecoret / 123RF Stock Photo
The disclosure shows a favorable policy environment for ***** e Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX). President Donald Trump has directed his administration to help sharply increase the number of U.S. commercial ***** e launches. It is a policy priority that could benefit ***** eX given its leading position in the launch market.
#corp #NASDAQ
The purchase, part of more than 1,000 stock trades Trump made that month, came two weeks after ***** eX's June 12 IPO, the biggest in U.S. history, which valued the company at $1.77 trillion. White House spokesman Davis Ingle said third-party financial institutions manage the president's portfolio independently and that "neither President Trump nor any member of his family has any ability to direct, influence, or provide input" on the investments.
Reuters previously reported that Small Business Administration head Kelly Loeffler, a Trump cabinet member, also earned millions from ***** eX-related investments.
Copyright: sdecoret / 123RF Stock Photo
The disclosure shows a favorable policy environment for ***** e Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX). President Donald Trump has directed his administration to help sharply increase the number of U.S. commercial ***** e launches. It is a policy priority that could benefit ***** eX given its leading position in the launch market.
#corp #NASDAQ
