Eli Lilly (LLY) trades near $1,150, up about 52% over the past year, and is now worth more than a trillion dollars. At that size the easy read is that the big money has been made. But Lilly has barely started selling Foundayo, its oral obesity medicine, outside the United States. So how much is left? The scenario below starts from Lilly's own trailing numbers, but the growth, margin, and multiple it ***** umes are ours. It is not a forecast and not a price target.
Almost all of the upside is revenue. The scenario caps growth at 30% a year. That is well below the 49.6% Lilly grew over the past twelve months, though only a little below the roughly 32% pace of its own 2026 guide. Revenue still climbs from $79.7 billion to $175.0 billion by year three.
The engine is incretins. Mounjaro and Zepbound together made $14.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026, $6.3 billion more than a year earlier. Net margin eases to 30.7% in the scenario, so earnings roughly double.
Then the multiple takes its cut. Lilly's P/E of 38.5x already sits below its three-year average of 68.9x, and the scenario trims it further to 33.6x because slower growth will not support even today's multiple. On those ***** umptions the stock would be worth about $2,024 in three years, roughly 76% above today.
LLY

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