The useful part of these matchup conversations is figuring out which players outside the obvious tier have a chance to outkick their ranking and give you more than the market is pricing in. That's what we're looking at here.
Every player on this list sits outside the top 10 at his position in both Yahoo Sports' Week 1 half-PPR consensus rankings and FantasyPros' half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings. From there, I'm looking at the matchup and the higher-end outcomes from my projection model.
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The boom and nuke percentages come from my simulation model. Boom thresholds are 27 points for quarterbacks, 24 for running backs and wide receivers and 20 for tight ends. Nuke thresholds are 35, 33, 34 and 28, respectively.
Yahoo: QB13 | ECR: QB16 | My projection: QB13 Boom: 10% | Nuke: 1% | Hit: 41%

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