Consensus has the earnings arriving, and the multiple falling, yet the scenario that follows leaves a holder within a few percent of today's price unless the market goes on paying a richer forward multiple than it does today.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) trades at about $111 a share, roughly 30 times the last twelve months of normalized earnings. That is a demanding price for a networking company; the defense is that the earnings ***** ysts expect will grow into it. They would. What that is worth to a holder is the smaller answer.
Thirty Times Today, Twenty Times On Fiscal 2028 Earnings
Today's price is about 21.5 times the earnings ***** ysts expect for fiscal 2027, and about 20.0 times what they expect for fiscal 2028, a multiple 34% lower than the trailing one. That drop is not an earnings growth rate: the trailing figure is normalized net income with stock-based compensation added back, a basis not defined identically to the ***** ysts' own adjusted earnings, so the two multiples are not a like-for-like series. Consensus for fiscal 2027, about $5.13 a share on the ***** ysts' adjusted basis, is barely ahead of the $5.05 to $5.11 non-GAAP range management guided.
Margins Have To Hold While The Mix Fights Them

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