The copper tariff premium was the visible signal that faded; the quiet rebuild of its US mines was the half of the move an investor could actually see coming.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock returned about 74% over the year to August 20, 2026, against about 20% for the S&P 500. It managed that with the Grasberg Block Cave in Indonesia still recovering toward full capacity. The part of that move Freeport controlled was visible seven months before the run began, and it was not the tariff signal everyone was watching.
The US Rebuild Was Named Seven Months Early
By late January 2025 management had already named the target: 2024 was to be the floor year for its US business, with US production guided up 8% in 2025. By April 2025 better retention had cut Freeport's reliance on costlier contractors: contractor hours at Morenci, its largest US mine, were down about 20% over the prior few quarters, and the autonomous haul truck conversion at its Bagdad mine was under way. In fiscal Q2 2026 Morenci's mining rate ran 30% higher than its five-year average, and the US mining operations delivered 2.4x more operating income in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2025, making them the highest earnings contributor across the portfolio of mines Freeport runs, on a US business management highlighted as exposed to favorable copper markets. Converting higher mining rates into operating income is the kind of profitability the Trefis High Quality Portfolio favors in its holdings.
The Premium Everyone Could See Did Not Last
#half #premium
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock returned about 74% over the year to August 20, 2026, against about 20% for the S&P 500. It managed that with the Grasberg Block Cave in Indonesia still recovering toward full capacity. The part of that move Freeport controlled was visible seven months before the run began, and it was not the tariff signal everyone was watching.
The US Rebuild Was Named Seven Months Early
By late January 2025 management had already named the target: 2024 was to be the floor year for its US business, with US production guided up 8% in 2025. By April 2025 better retention had cut Freeport's reliance on costlier contractors: contractor hours at Morenci, its largest US mine, were down about 20% over the prior few quarters, and the autonomous haul truck conversion at its Bagdad mine was under way. In fiscal Q2 2026 Morenci's mining rate ran 30% higher than its five-year average, and the US mining operations delivered 2.4x more operating income in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2025, making them the highest earnings contributor across the portfolio of mines Freeport runs, on a US business management highlighted as exposed to favorable copper markets. Converting higher mining rates into operating income is the kind of profitability the Trefis High Quality Portfolio favors in its holdings.
The Premium Everyone Could See Did Not Last
#half #premium
2 months ago
