The United States Men's National Team is almost sure of its round of 32 opponent: Bosnia and Herzegovina. That won't be 100% set until the night of Saturday, June 27, but statistical ***** ysis puts the odds of a US-Bosnia match at more than 99%.
By virtue of its 3-1 victory over Qatar on Wednesday, June 24, Bosnia finished third in Group B. The US, as winners of Group D, were guaranteed to face a third-place team from one of five different groups (no matter how its final group game goes Thursday against Turkiye). Per a FIFA table with 495 possibilities on it, almost all roads lead to a showdown with the Group B third-placer.
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Per a complicated statistical ***** ysis by the New York Times/The Athletic, the odds that the US will play Bosnia are greater than 99%, though they won't reach 100% until the group stage concludes on June 27. FIFA's table, with almost 500 combinations, depends on which eight (of 12) third-place finishers advance, and at this point, all likely outcomes have the Group D winner playing the Group B third-placer.
By virtue of its 3-1 victory over Qatar on Wednesday, June 24, Bosnia finished third in Group B. The US, as winners of Group D, were guaranteed to face a third-place team from one of five different groups (no matter how its final group game goes Thursday against Turkiye). Per a FIFA table with 495 possibilities on it, almost all roads lead to a showdown with the Group B third-placer.
More: What a World Cup sounds like in Texas. Sights from England-Croatia
More: 2026 FIFA World Cup full schedule, when do US soccer, Mexico play
Per a complicated statistical ***** ysis by the New York Times/The Athletic, the odds that the US will play Bosnia are greater than 99%, though they won't reach 100% until the group stage concludes on June 27. FIFA's table, with almost 500 combinations, depends on which eight (of 12) third-place finishers advance, and at this point, all likely outcomes have the Group D winner playing the Group B third-placer.
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