In the days before the Memorial Day weekend, rates on 30 year Treasury bonds hit their highest level in 19 years at 5.2%, and the benchmark 10-year reached 4.7%, the top reading since mid-2007. If those kinds of yields take hold, the scenario for federal interest expense posited in the CBO’s “Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036,” released in February, descends from dire to near-disastrous. Takeaway: America’s track to fiscal safety has lost all margin for error, and nothing demonstrates that better than the long-term impact of loftier than expected rates. America’s got so little room to maneuver that even yields that modestly exceed the CBO’s “baseline,” as the numbers compound in the years ahead, deliver a huge extra blow by crowding out big chunks of revenue that would otherwise go towards funding such essentials as Defense, Social Security and Medicare.
The CBO forecasts that yields on the 30 and 10-year Treasuries will respectively average about 4.65% and 4.15% through FY 2036. That’s roughly 55 basis points lower than the multi-year summit briefly notched in late May. Doesn’t sound like much of a difference, right? And if the interest expense on our gigantic and ballooning national debt of $39 trillion weren’t already running at nearly $1 trillion a year, bigger than Medicare spending and equaling two-thirds of Social Security outlays, the half-point upward shift would likely prove manageable.
But a recent report from the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget quantifies the deep damage even a continuation at the recent peaks would inflict. By 2036, interest expense would jump from absorbing 14% of all revenues to devouring 30%, five points more than under the CBO’s forecast. At $2.5 trillion, 2.5x today’s number, the carrying costs would become the second largest budget category, beating Medicare by one-third. Interest cost per household would soar from $7,900 last year to $17,000 a decade hence.
Much of today’s extreme vulnerability to even slightly higher rates arises from the need to both refinance existing debt, and shoulder trillions more in newly-issued bonds to cover deficits, at much higher cost. All told, the federal government will need to borrow almost $10 trillion in the next 12 months, equivalent to one-third our total debt. That amount consists of around $7.5 trillion to repay the Treasuries coming due, and $2 trillion for plugging the shortfall between revenues and spending. A major reason the U.S. accumulated so much debt in the first place was the lure of ultra-bargain yields orchestrated by the Fed’s easy money policy during and following the COVID crisis. In 2021 through early 2022, Treasury Bills, instruments that mature within a year, offered around a minuscule 0.2%. Today, that cost’s 18 times fatter at 3.7%.
The CBO forecasts that yields on the 30 and 10-year Treasuries will respectively average about 4.65% and 4.15% through FY 2036. That’s roughly 55 basis points lower than the multi-year summit briefly notched in late May. Doesn’t sound like much of a difference, right? And if the interest expense on our gigantic and ballooning national debt of $39 trillion weren’t already running at nearly $1 trillion a year, bigger than Medicare spending and equaling two-thirds of Social Security outlays, the half-point upward shift would likely prove manageable.
But a recent report from the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget quantifies the deep damage even a continuation at the recent peaks would inflict. By 2036, interest expense would jump from absorbing 14% of all revenues to devouring 30%, five points more than under the CBO’s forecast. At $2.5 trillion, 2.5x today’s number, the carrying costs would become the second largest budget category, beating Medicare by one-third. Interest cost per household would soar from $7,900 last year to $17,000 a decade hence.
Much of today’s extreme vulnerability to even slightly higher rates arises from the need to both refinance existing debt, and shoulder trillions more in newly-issued bonds to cover deficits, at much higher cost. All told, the federal government will need to borrow almost $10 trillion in the next 12 months, equivalent to one-third our total debt. That amount consists of around $7.5 trillion to repay the Treasuries coming due, and $2 trillion for plugging the shortfall between revenues and spending. A major reason the U.S. accumulated so much debt in the first place was the lure of ultra-bargain yields orchestrated by the Fed’s easy money policy during and following the COVID crisis. In 2021 through early 2022, Treasury Bills, instruments that mature within a year, offered around a minuscule 0.2%. Today, that cost’s 18 times fatter at 3.7%.
5 days ago
