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The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% in September 2026, its highest since 2007, intensifying pressure on stock valuations.
Buffett's gravity rule reframes a 5% Treasury as a 20x earnings multiple, which is far cheaper than the 45x bonds carried at 2.15% in 2017.
Buffett warned that at 21% short rates in 1982, even stocks at 6x earnings looked unattractive against the risk-free alternative.
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Treasury yields have pushed to levels that force a conversation investors have not needed to have in years. The 10-year Treasury note traded at 5% on the morning of September 15, 2026, according to CNBC, and CNBC reported the 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007. On a settled basis, the daily 10-year series last printed 4.96% on September 11, 2026, the highest reading in the trailing year.

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2 months ago

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