The U.S. dollar remains flat amid higher treasury yields driven by soaring energy costs. With Brent crude topping $100, worries of inflation across the globe are coming back, with the U.S. 10-year yield climbing to a 2023 high. That said, the dollar has remained unchanged, demonstrating lack of interest from investors to add long positions before the release of the upcoming US inflation data and next week's FOMC meeting.
The U.S. data on tap to influence markets is the Producer Price Index (PPI) today and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The market currently puts odds at around 60% that the Fed may hike at its next meeting on Wednesday, following strong labor market data and increased energy shock. The energy crisis may also bring inflation concerns to investors, while the data may be weaker and may even lead market ****** ysts to turn less hawkish.
The euro zone also remains front and center. The ECB is going to hike rates by 25 bps today and mail the deposit rate at 2.50%. The consensus in the market is that the ECB will not hike again this year. Euro zone inflation was at 3.3% in August, and pressure on energy prices is building, with Deutsche Bank calling for a December rate hike.
Sterling remains subdued. The Bank of England is more cautious than its peers. There is a high consensus in the market that the BoE will hold rates on September 17. 57 of the economists polled in the REUTERS survey expect the BoE to hold for the remainder of the year. Energy concerns are high, and wage and price inflation are still muted.
As indicated in the chart, tightening by the ECB contrasts with the Fed's data dependency and the BoE's wait-and-see approach.

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