Steel and aluminum stocks surged and then retreated last week as the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada sent investors scrambling to reprice exposure to North American metals supply chains.
SLX gained 1.6% on Monday, Aug. 25, following the breakdown of U.S.-Canada trade talks, and the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) reached a new intraday record that session, topping the peak it had set in February. Shares of Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Century Aluminum all climbed. The gains proved short-lived, however: by Friday's close, XLB had slipped into the red for the week and SLX was essentially unchanged, according to CNBC. Through Aug. 28, Morningstar data show SLX has gained more than 28% on the year and XLB more than 18%.
The swing reflects the complexity of a trade war between two countries whose metals industries are deeply intertwined. Dan Luttner, who serves as managing partner of the supply chain consulting firm NEOS by Argon & Company, characterized the initial stock move to CNBC as a repricing reflex rather than a durable signal. "The stock pop is a headline reflex, honestly — mills reprice to replacement cost the second a 50% wall goes up, so of course Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs jumped," Luttner said. "But that's not the interesting question. The interesting question is who controls their feedstock inside the wall versus who's still exposed to it?"
Luttner noted that both Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs use electric arc furnace technology whose inputs have no dependence on Canadian ore or slab, positioning them to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits without the same exposure. Cleveland-Cliffs stock is nonetheless in negative territory for 2026 because of balance sheet stress. Century Aluminum is a more complicated case: because domestic primary aluminum production is thin, the raw inputs that sustain it — alumina and semi-finished material — largely still flow across the Canadian border, undermining the protection the tariffs were meant to provide.
Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer at Moody's Ratings, said uncertainty will persist. "Expect much more of this uncertainty for some time to come," Sheth said. She added that U.S. steel companies hold a modest edge over their Canadian counterparts because the U.S. market is larger, but said the auto sector has no clear winner given how deeply integrated cross-border production is.
#cliffs #nucor
SLX gained 1.6% on Monday, Aug. 25, following the breakdown of U.S.-Canada trade talks, and the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) reached a new intraday record that session, topping the peak it had set in February. Shares of Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Century Aluminum all climbed. The gains proved short-lived, however: by Friday's close, XLB had slipped into the red for the week and SLX was essentially unchanged, according to CNBC. Through Aug. 28, Morningstar data show SLX has gained more than 28% on the year and XLB more than 18%.
The swing reflects the complexity of a trade war between two countries whose metals industries are deeply intertwined. Dan Luttner, who serves as managing partner of the supply chain consulting firm NEOS by Argon & Company, characterized the initial stock move to CNBC as a repricing reflex rather than a durable signal. "The stock pop is a headline reflex, honestly — mills reprice to replacement cost the second a 50% wall goes up, so of course Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs jumped," Luttner said. "But that's not the interesting question. The interesting question is who controls their feedstock inside the wall versus who's still exposed to it?"
Luttner noted that both Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs use electric arc furnace technology whose inputs have no dependence on Canadian ore or slab, positioning them to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits without the same exposure. Cleveland-Cliffs stock is nonetheless in negative territory for 2026 because of balance sheet stress. Century Aluminum is a more complicated case: because domestic primary aluminum production is thin, the raw inputs that sustain it — alumina and semi-finished material — largely still flow across the Canadian border, undermining the protection the tariffs were meant to provide.
Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer at Moody's Ratings, said uncertainty will persist. "Expect much more of this uncertainty for some time to come," Sheth said. She added that U.S. steel companies hold a modest edge over their Canadian counterparts because the U.S. market is larger, but said the auto sector has no clear winner given how deeply integrated cross-border production is.
#cliffs #nucor
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