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Two new working papers circulated by the authoritative National Bureau of Economic Research show the double squeeze the U.S. dollar and the Treasury market are facing both overseas and at home.
The first, from a team of European Central Bank and Banque de France economists, show how official demand for dollar ******* ets is waning as central banks increasingly seek sanctuary in gold after Russian ******* ets were frozen following the launch of the war on Ukraine in 2022. It's a topic that has certainly been discussed, but the paper quantifies that shift, finding nonaligned countries have moved nearly one-third of total reserve portfolios away from foreign-currency claims.
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Perhaps the more intriguing new paper comes from Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Ricardo Caballero, who talks about a safe-debt Laffer Curve. The Laffer Curve represents the theory that, at a certain level, revenue actually starts to fall rather than rise as tax rates increase. Caballero's novel idea is that, at a certain level, federal debt actually hurts aggregate demand rather than helps it.

#curve #central #debt
2 months ago

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