Denver, New England, Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh were among the NFL's biggest surprises in 2025. Carolina snuck into the playoffs on a Week 18 tiebreaker with a losing record. Many thought they'd improve, but each franchise overperformed based on early expectations and made the postseason. With that in mind, some might argue these teams are overrated entering 2026.
All six now face a harder road in 2026, whether from a brutal new schedule, an aging quarterback, injury attrition or a defense that can no longer paper over the same problems.
Here are the most overrated NFL teams that are headed for a worse win-loss record this fall.
MORE: 6 NFL teams most likely to improve their record in 2026
Head coach Sean Payton during the first quarter of an AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Buffalo Bills.

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