Diesel prices are still above $5, and Aaron Decker says the real problem is refining capacity — not crude oil.In this FreightWaves Today interview, Decker breaks down crack spreads, refinery outages, low distillate inventories and how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still hitting diesel markets. For carriers, brokers and shippers, this is the fuel outlook that matters heading into Q3 and Q4.#DieselPrices #FuelSurcharge #FreightWaves
On-road diesel prices hit the high $5.60s this week, and the culprit is not crude oil — which has been hovering in the $80s — but a refining capacity crunch that has sent crack spreads above $100 per barrel, well beyond their typical $15–$25 range, said Aaron Decker, partner and chief executive officer of Multi-Service Fuel Card.
"It's not necessarily a crude issue or a crude crisis," Decker said. "We're not in a crude crisis, we're in a refining crisis." Ultra-low distillate inventories have fallen to levels not seen since the early 2000s, and even the late 1990s, he added — a signal he called "really troubling."
Several forces are compounding the supply squeeze. Ukrainian drone strikes have taken out Russian refineries that were previously helping backfill global shortfalls. U.S. Gulf Coast diesel exports are running elevated as domestic refiners supply shortage-stricken markets overseas, which simultaneously tightens American supply and consumes domestic refining capacity. Decker said a weekly government report tracking Hormuz tanker traffic, Russian refinery runs, and U.S. distillate inventories are the three indicators he watches most closely.
"I don't anticipate this getting better in the very near future. I anticipate, and I think the EIA agrees with that, they adjusted their forecast from where they were at the beginning of the year to how things stand now. And I would imagine we're north of $5 for the foreseeable future." — Aaron Decker, CEO, Multi-Service Fuel Card
#Diesel #aaron #refining #inventories
On-road diesel prices hit the high $5.60s this week, and the culprit is not crude oil — which has been hovering in the $80s — but a refining capacity crunch that has sent crack spreads above $100 per barrel, well beyond their typical $15–$25 range, said Aaron Decker, partner and chief executive officer of Multi-Service Fuel Card.
"It's not necessarily a crude issue or a crude crisis," Decker said. "We're not in a crude crisis, we're in a refining crisis." Ultra-low distillate inventories have fallen to levels not seen since the early 2000s, and even the late 1990s, he added — a signal he called "really troubling."
Several forces are compounding the supply squeeze. Ukrainian drone strikes have taken out Russian refineries that were previously helping backfill global shortfalls. U.S. Gulf Coast diesel exports are running elevated as domestic refiners supply shortage-stricken markets overseas, which simultaneously tightens American supply and consumes domestic refining capacity. Decker said a weekly government report tracking Hormuz tanker traffic, Russian refinery runs, and U.S. distillate inventories are the three indicators he watches most closely.
"I don't anticipate this getting better in the very near future. I anticipate, and I think the EIA agrees with that, they adjusted their forecast from where they were at the beginning of the year to how things stand now. And I would imagine we're north of $5 for the foreseeable future." — Aaron Decker, CEO, Multi-Service Fuel Card
#Diesel #aaron #refining #inventories
2 months ago
