The European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting concluding today, choosing patience over prediction and preserving maximum room for manoeuvre ahead of a big decision by September.
Neither traders nor ******* ysts believe the ECB will deliver a second consecutive hike today after last month's increase. That means the deposit rate is seen remaining at 2.25%, a level officials have described as being "appropriate" as they evaluate implications of a re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict.
In an economists' panel for Bloomberg I sat on, most economists left open the chance of a second quarter-point rise in rates by September, when policymakers will have new quarterly projections.
A ceasefire following the June ECB meeting along with weaker-than-anticipated inflation that month had bolstered hopes that the worst of the crisis may have passed. However – fresh hostilities recently, placing Brent oil back around USD 100 a barrel, have revived expectations for more tightening ahead.
Traders currently wager that an initial June move will be followed up by another in September and a final one by the end of this year. The ECB's projections last month were based on ******* umptions for a total of three hikes this cycle.
#september
Neither traders nor ******* ysts believe the ECB will deliver a second consecutive hike today after last month's increase. That means the deposit rate is seen remaining at 2.25%, a level officials have described as being "appropriate" as they evaluate implications of a re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict.
In an economists' panel for Bloomberg I sat on, most economists left open the chance of a second quarter-point rise in rates by September, when policymakers will have new quarterly projections.
A ceasefire following the June ECB meeting along with weaker-than-anticipated inflation that month had bolstered hopes that the worst of the crisis may have passed. However – fresh hostilities recently, placing Brent oil back around USD 100 a barrel, have revived expectations for more tightening ahead.
Traders currently wager that an initial June move will be followed up by another in September and a final one by the end of this year. The ECB's projections last month were based on ******* umptions for a total of three hikes this cycle.
#september
7 days ago
