This is Part 2 of my exploration of some of the underlying details of Cardinal pitching prospects. The question I am trying to answer is… Of the minor leagues prospects we've been watching, who has the most interesting pitch shape metrics (ie. the under the hood stuff)? We seem to be far enough into the season to have built up some stats that can stand up to Small Sample Size (SSS) scrutiny. Since I do the daily down on the Farm Reports, I see the various pitcher usage and line score results every day. That has made me curious about some things that might be going on beyond the line score.
Last week folks got a look at the pitchers in Palm Beach. What I neglected to mention then is that the set of top 10th percentile pitch metrics was 225 pitch types deep, and the Cardinals had 25 entries in the group or just a little below league average of 28. This becomes a little less mundane when we start looking at AAA numbers.
First, I raised the bar for AAA pitchers to 150 pitches minimum instead of 50 pitches as for Low-A pitchers. This to keep the set manageable. If I used the same 50 pitch minimum, the AAA set would include 1267 pitcher/pitch type combinations. I'm looking for the outliers and that is a large outlier group. That the AAA group is five times bigger tells me that a significant difference between AAA and Low-A pitching is volume.
Same methodology as last week. I am looking for pitchers have top 10th percentile metrics. This is a "who has a tool that sticks out" kind of question. Even with a 150 pitch minimum, I still get 382 pitcher/pitch combinations in the top tenth percentile (almost double the Low-A group). In an ugly turn of events, only 17 Cardinal entries are found in this table and as you will see, too many of them are outlier in a bad way (as in last decile, not top).
Like last week, the first table shows just the pitch profile, not the results (which follow in the next section).
Last week folks got a look at the pitchers in Palm Beach. What I neglected to mention then is that the set of top 10th percentile pitch metrics was 225 pitch types deep, and the Cardinals had 25 entries in the group or just a little below league average of 28. This becomes a little less mundane when we start looking at AAA numbers.
First, I raised the bar for AAA pitchers to 150 pitches minimum instead of 50 pitches as for Low-A pitchers. This to keep the set manageable. If I used the same 50 pitch minimum, the AAA set would include 1267 pitcher/pitch type combinations. I'm looking for the outliers and that is a large outlier group. That the AAA group is five times bigger tells me that a significant difference between AAA and Low-A pitching is volume.
Same methodology as last week. I am looking for pitchers have top 10th percentile metrics. This is a "who has a tool that sticks out" kind of question. Even with a 150 pitch minimum, I still get 382 pitcher/pitch combinations in the top tenth percentile (almost double the Low-A group). In an ugly turn of events, only 17 Cardinal entries are found in this table and as you will see, too many of them are outlier in a bad way (as in last decile, not top).
Like last week, the first table shows just the pitch profile, not the results (which follow in the next section).
4 months ago
