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Mortgage rates continue to rise as 2026 nears its fourth quarter. What is the outlook for home loan rates in the next five years? Should you wait for mortgage rates to fall significantly before buying or refinancing? Mortgage interest rates are determined by several factors, all of which can give us clues about the future. Let's take a closer look at mortgage rate predictions over the next five years.
Here are the housing market predictions for 2026.
One of the most useful indicators for predicting mortgage rates is the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. Mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields typically move in the same direction, although mortgage rates are usually higher because lenders factor in additional risks. This difference is known as the spread, and we'll account for it when estimating where mortgage rates could go.
With that in mind, the first step is to look at where economists believe Treasury yields are headed over the next five years. To build a forecast, we'll combine expert economic projections with data compiled using artificial intelligence.

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