With the focus of global investors shifting away from the short-term economy to long-term fiscal credibility, the US dollar started its day on August 24 on multi-month lows. Although Treasury Department's plan to double buybacks to the tune of $4 billion per operation on 10- to 30-year debt has eased concerns in some market circles, others are concerned that Washington intends to further suppress long-term borrowing via the deficit without remediation. U.S. 30-year yields are at 5.337%, last week's 19-year highs, and a slightly better than expected Services report on Friday did little to push the dollar higher. Investors are watching both Friday's speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh from Jackson Hole and July's inflation for more insight on the possible direction and duration of monetary policy.
Buyer perception is that the ECB will continue to adhere to the fight against inflation after the September opening of a 2.5% deposit rate. In the meantime, while the recovery in Europe is uneven, sentiment in the markets is that recent growth data and business activity support the push for further inflation focus against the backdrop of the Iran conflict.
Sterling is further supported by the comparative relationship with the dollar. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh rose to 2.9% in July, while second-quarter GDP increased by 0.4%. There were also declines in retail sales and an unexpected budget deficit by the government which has weakened prospects. With all of this in mind, the best case scenario is still limited. Most economists predict interest rates will stay the same for the remainder of 2022. That said, inflation is still expected to rise enough to prompt the Bank of England for at least one interest rate hike in 2026.
For August 24, the primary FX theme is increased uncertainty over U.S. fiscal policy and treated the dollar as being weak, while the risks of tightening by the ECB and BoE supported the euro and pound.
For the U.S. Dollar Index, the 4-hour chart shows a price currently at $98.89 after breaking the $99.38 support. The price is below the 50, and 100, period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) confirming a bearish sentiment. The price has been attempting to stabilize in the range of $98.55 to $98.82, and has broken some support, but no major resistances have been established.
#inflation #support #price #kevin
Buyer perception is that the ECB will continue to adhere to the fight against inflation after the September opening of a 2.5% deposit rate. In the meantime, while the recovery in Europe is uneven, sentiment in the markets is that recent growth data and business activity support the push for further inflation focus against the backdrop of the Iran conflict.
Sterling is further supported by the comparative relationship with the dollar. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh rose to 2.9% in July, while second-quarter GDP increased by 0.4%. There were also declines in retail sales and an unexpected budget deficit by the government which has weakened prospects. With all of this in mind, the best case scenario is still limited. Most economists predict interest rates will stay the same for the remainder of 2022. That said, inflation is still expected to rise enough to prompt the Bank of England for at least one interest rate hike in 2026.
For August 24, the primary FX theme is increased uncertainty over U.S. fiscal policy and treated the dollar as being weak, while the risks of tightening by the ECB and BoE supported the euro and pound.
For the U.S. Dollar Index, the 4-hour chart shows a price currently at $98.89 after breaking the $99.38 support. The price is below the 50, and 100, period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) confirming a bearish sentiment. The price has been attempting to stabilize in the range of $98.55 to $98.82, and has broken some support, but no major resistances have been established.
#inflation #support #price #kevin
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