Even before its explosive growth, the company was already so swamped by demand it was warning investors it couldn't keep up.
When a stock like Seagate Technology (STX) rips 702% in a year, as it did starting in June 2025, the natural reaction is to **** ume a lightning strike. A sudden breakthrough, an unexpected market turn. With Seagate, the story was one of a gradually building pressure cooker, with the steam visibly venting for anyone who cared to look.
The evidence was clear in management's own words, quarter after quarter, describing a business where demand was beginning to run away from supply. The real tell was the slow, grinding mismatch between what customers wanted and what Seagate could actually ship.
How far out could management see the demand coming?
By the spring of 2025, just before the run, the company's future was practically booked solid. On its April earnings call, management noted it already had "visibility of demand with several customers into the first-half of calendar 2026 as we negotiate new build-to-order agreements." That's not forecasting. That's a company looking at a calendar filling up with commitments almost a year in advance, driven by what it called a "very tight supply environment."
When a stock like Seagate Technology (STX) rips 702% in a year, as it did starting in June 2025, the natural reaction is to **** ume a lightning strike. A sudden breakthrough, an unexpected market turn. With Seagate, the story was one of a gradually building pressure cooker, with the steam visibly venting for anyone who cared to look.
The evidence was clear in management's own words, quarter after quarter, describing a business where demand was beginning to run away from supply. The real tell was the slow, grinding mismatch between what customers wanted and what Seagate could actually ship.
How far out could management see the demand coming?
By the spring of 2025, just before the run, the company's future was practically booked solid. On its April earnings call, management noted it already had "visibility of demand with several customers into the first-half of calendar 2026 as we negotiate new build-to-order agreements." That's not forecasting. That's a company looking at a calendar filling up with commitments almost a year in advance, driven by what it called a "very tight supply environment."
4 months ago
