After the Detroit Lions' 2025 disappointing season—a playoff-less 9-8 year—analysts have gone one of two ways with the future in Detroit. Some believe their Super Bowl window is closing or closed. Others believe it was a temporary step back, and they'll be back in contention in 2026. Well, you can count ESPN's Bill Barnwell as one of the people in the latter category.
On Monday, Barnwell put together his annual list of NFL teams most likely to improve in 2026, and the Lions were one of five teams listed. Barnwell's methodology for these list typically involves a set of statistics that tend to regress (positively or negatively) to the mean each year. That includes strength of schedule, records in close games, turnover margin, and point differential.
When it comes to the Lions, Barnwell pointed to several metrics that indicate Detroit could be in for a bounce-back season. One odd one was Detroit's terrible recovery rate on fumbles. Per Barnwell, Detroit recovered just 29 percent of fumbles last year, which not only was last in the league, but it was "just the fifth time since 1990 that any team has failed to recover at least 30% of fumbles in a season."
Barnwell also points to injuries as something that should (hopefully) regress to the mean in the Lions' favor in 2026.
"Detroit was last in adjusted games lost on defense, where the only starters who suited up for all 17 games were Derrick Barnes, Jack Campbell, Aidan Hutchinson and DJ Reader," Barnwell wrote.
#games #fumbles #believe
On Monday, Barnwell put together his annual list of NFL teams most likely to improve in 2026, and the Lions were one of five teams listed. Barnwell's methodology for these list typically involves a set of statistics that tend to regress (positively or negatively) to the mean each year. That includes strength of schedule, records in close games, turnover margin, and point differential.
When it comes to the Lions, Barnwell pointed to several metrics that indicate Detroit could be in for a bounce-back season. One odd one was Detroit's terrible recovery rate on fumbles. Per Barnwell, Detroit recovered just 29 percent of fumbles last year, which not only was last in the league, but it was "just the fifth time since 1990 that any team has failed to recover at least 30% of fumbles in a season."
Barnwell also points to injuries as something that should (hopefully) regress to the mean in the Lions' favor in 2026.
"Detroit was last in adjusted games lost on defense, where the only starters who suited up for all 17 games were Derrick Barnes, Jack Campbell, Aidan Hutchinson and DJ Reader," Barnwell wrote.
#games #fumbles #believe
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