When I set out to write an NFL betting piece this weekend, I thought the topic would be the alt win-total market. I was going to explain what binomial distribution is and why it does not properly apply to win-total markets, creating some deviation that is worth exploiting.
However, when I looked at alt win-total markets for every team in both the over and under direction, the price was a ripoff. The books have adjusted those markets, therefore the tricks and tools once used to win can no longer be reasonably good advice. I looked at my own betting log and saw that I've only placed one alt win-total bet over the last three years (and it was in the NBA).
While plenty of alt win-total lines are going to win this season, honing in on the ones where the true probability exceeds the implied probability of the odds felt unreasonable given the prices. In fact, where the edges can be identified, there are probably more advantageous angles to attack with the same premise. So instead of forcing it, I shifted focus to season-long player props. Here are four season-long prop lines I really like.
Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against the Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 29, 2025, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Placing this bet pains me a little bit. I am such a big Robinson fan, and I started the offseason pretty bullish on the Atlanta Falcons.
#season #going
However, when I looked at alt win-total markets for every team in both the over and under direction, the price was a ripoff. The books have adjusted those markets, therefore the tricks and tools once used to win can no longer be reasonably good advice. I looked at my own betting log and saw that I've only placed one alt win-total bet over the last three years (and it was in the NBA).
While plenty of alt win-total lines are going to win this season, honing in on the ones where the true probability exceeds the implied probability of the odds felt unreasonable given the prices. In fact, where the edges can be identified, there are probably more advantageous angles to attack with the same premise. So instead of forcing it, I shifted focus to season-long player props. Here are four season-long prop lines I really like.
Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against the Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 29, 2025, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Placing this bet pains me a little bit. I am such a big Robinson fan, and I started the offseason pretty bullish on the Atlanta Falcons.
#season #going
2 months ago
