Clay Holmes made his Cubs debut against the Royals on Saturday. It probably wasn't the box score line he was looking for, but seeing as it was his first start since taking a comebacker that broke his leg in mid-May, it was perfectly fine. He threw four innings, giving up four runs (all earned) on six hits while walking two and striking out one. Here's more about that outing directly from Holmes:
Even if there are a few starts where Holmes needs to shake the rust off like his first outing, the Cubs clearly see something in his ***** nal that should work well with their elite defense. Today let's dive into the numbers behind this trade that sent one of their top prospects back to the Mets in Jefferson Rojas.
Holmes is your classic sinker ball pitcher. He throws his sinker, which averages 94 miles per hour, about 50 percent of the time. You know what that means: ground ***** . You don't even really have to squint to see what the Cubs front office sees in this move: ground ***** with an elite defense are more likely to be outs. You can see all of Holmes' pitches along with their velocity in this screengrab from Baseball Savant:
This is a pitcher who tinkers a bit. There have been changes to his ***** nal over the last few years, but it's mainly in how much he throws a certain pitch. The biggest thing to look at in Holmes' pitches is that his role shifted considerably from 2024, when he was an elite reliever with the Yankees to 2025 when he became a credible starter with the Mets. You can see how Holmes' pitch mix has changed over time below:
Holmes can tinker all he wants if he winds up with ground ball rates like the ones he's had over the past few seasons for the Cubs. These numbers were truly eye-popping to me. I ran a FanGraphs leaderboard for every pitcher's ground ball rates since 2021 split by season for pitchers with at least 50 innings a season. Holmes has four of the top 15 seasons out of 1961 total seasons (yes, really). His worst ground ball rate (2025 with the Mets) is still in the top 10 percent, ranking 119th. There is elite in a single season and then there is elite over time. Holmes is elite over time, and I am dreaming on the double plays he's going to have turned behind him already. You can see key stats from his last six seasons below:
#METS
Even if there are a few starts where Holmes needs to shake the rust off like his first outing, the Cubs clearly see something in his ***** nal that should work well with their elite defense. Today let's dive into the numbers behind this trade that sent one of their top prospects back to the Mets in Jefferson Rojas.
Holmes is your classic sinker ball pitcher. He throws his sinker, which averages 94 miles per hour, about 50 percent of the time. You know what that means: ground ***** . You don't even really have to squint to see what the Cubs front office sees in this move: ground ***** with an elite defense are more likely to be outs. You can see all of Holmes' pitches along with their velocity in this screengrab from Baseball Savant:
This is a pitcher who tinkers a bit. There have been changes to his ***** nal over the last few years, but it's mainly in how much he throws a certain pitch. The biggest thing to look at in Holmes' pitches is that his role shifted considerably from 2024, when he was an elite reliever with the Yankees to 2025 when he became a credible starter with the Mets. You can see how Holmes' pitch mix has changed over time below:
Holmes can tinker all he wants if he winds up with ground ball rates like the ones he's had over the past few seasons for the Cubs. These numbers were truly eye-popping to me. I ran a FanGraphs leaderboard for every pitcher's ground ball rates since 2021 split by season for pitchers with at least 50 innings a season. Holmes has four of the top 15 seasons out of 1961 total seasons (yes, really). His worst ground ball rate (2025 with the Mets) is still in the top 10 percent, ranking 119th. There is elite in a single season and then there is elite over time. Holmes is elite over time, and I am dreaming on the double plays he's going to have turned behind him already. You can see key stats from his last six seasons below:
#METS
3 months ago
