In a starting pitching landscape filled with uncertainty and inconsistency, Paul Skenes was supposed to be a given. He was the consensus top prospect in the 2023 MLB Draft, blitzed through the minor leagues in just 17 starts, and posted sub-2.00 ERA seasons in each of his first two MLB years. He came into this season just 24 years old and set to dominate the sport for years to come.
But somewhere along the way, things went sideways.
It began on Opening Day, when Skenes couldn't even make it out of the first inning against the Mets, allowing five runs on four hits in two-thirds of an inning. People wondered whether his 8.1 innings in the World Baseball Classic had caused him to ramp up too quickly in the offseason. Yet, that Opening Day game was characterized by poor defense and bad luck and seemed like more of a fluke than anything.
Skenes allowed more than one run in just one of his next eight starts, and it seemed like we were right back on track.
Yet, here we are, on August 11, asking ourselves how Skenes could possibly have a 3.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 129.2 innings for the Pirates this year. How could he also take that big of a step backwards while also increasing his strikeout rate and K-BB% from last year while posting an identical swinging strike rate (SwStr%)? None of it seems to add up, so it's time we dig in a little deeper to find out what's wrong with Paul Skenes in 2026.

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