At Barchart's 2026 Summer Road Show meetings in Omaha and Shakopee, Minnesota, I spent a good deal of time talking about Cost of Carry tables.
With the US heading into fall harvest, we can use these tables to evaluate which market to hold and which to sell, theoretically, when it comes to corn and soybeans.
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In early August, the US soybean market has a more bullish long-term fundamental outlook, but things can and will change.
At the Barchart Summer Road Show event in Shakopee, Minnesota, after the talking had ended and the horse racing began (the event was held at Canterbury Park, appropriately enough) a gentleman came up and asked if I had written about the Cost of Carry tables I spent so much time talking about. I remembered him from last year's meeting in Ames. He was interested enough in what I said then to ask if Barchart had charts showing the trend of the percent of calculated full commercial carry spreads cover. As of today, it is still a work in progress (though I have Excel files I post each week). I appreciate his continued interest in futures spreads, and my **** ysis of them. With the US 2026 fall harvest off and running, it's time to take our annual look at what I like to call The Gamblers' Secret. As Kenny Rogers' famous character told us nearly 50 years ago (is that right?!), "You've got to know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away and know when to run." For those of you new to my **** ysis and commentary, let me interpret this for you. Market Rule #2 tells us, "Let the market dictate your action." This includes deciding what crop to store after harvest (hold) and what crop to sell as harvest progresses (fold). How does the market "dictate" our actions, though? If commercial traders need cash supplies, we sell it to them. On the other hand, if those same commercial interests are indicating they do not need supplies to meet demand and are willing to pay you to NOT sell at this time, it's best to listen.
#sell #talking
With the US heading into fall harvest, we can use these tables to evaluate which market to hold and which to sell, theoretically, when it comes to corn and soybeans.
Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now!
In early August, the US soybean market has a more bullish long-term fundamental outlook, but things can and will change.
At the Barchart Summer Road Show event in Shakopee, Minnesota, after the talking had ended and the horse racing began (the event was held at Canterbury Park, appropriately enough) a gentleman came up and asked if I had written about the Cost of Carry tables I spent so much time talking about. I remembered him from last year's meeting in Ames. He was interested enough in what I said then to ask if Barchart had charts showing the trend of the percent of calculated full commercial carry spreads cover. As of today, it is still a work in progress (though I have Excel files I post each week). I appreciate his continued interest in futures spreads, and my **** ysis of them. With the US 2026 fall harvest off and running, it's time to take our annual look at what I like to call The Gamblers' Secret. As Kenny Rogers' famous character told us nearly 50 years ago (is that right?!), "You've got to know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away and know when to run." For those of you new to my **** ysis and commentary, let me interpret this for you. Market Rule #2 tells us, "Let the market dictate your action." This includes deciding what crop to store after harvest (hold) and what crop to sell as harvest progresses (fold). How does the market "dictate" our actions, though? If commercial traders need cash supplies, we sell it to them. On the other hand, if those same commercial interests are indicating they do not need supplies to meet demand and are willing to pay you to NOT sell at this time, it's best to listen.
#sell #talking
8 days ago
