I recently released my first batch of my favorite NFL win totals to bet for the 2026-27 season. A derivative futures market off of that one is whether or not a team will make the postseason, which is what I'll explore in this article.
I like trying to find some longer shots in these markets, where our preseason priors might end up being far off and the returns from our wagers can loom larger. I found three teams with some asymmetry worth exploiting.
Here are a few NFL playoff make/miss wagers that I like right now:
The Rams have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, and yet I am interested in their market to miss the playoffs entirely. So, what gives?
Among NFL teams, Los Angeles is one where injury risk looms the largest. A 37-year old Matthew Stafford came into last season with serious concerns about his back injuries, sitting out most of training camp and all of preseason, while getting multiple pain injections into his spine. While Stafford went on to nullify those concerns — playing in all 17 games and winning MVP — it doesn't change the fact that he's now a year older and still has a heightened injury possibility compared to other QBs. If Stafford got hurt, the Rams would have to rely on rookie first-round pick QB Ty Simpson.
#wagers
I like trying to find some longer shots in these markets, where our preseason priors might end up being far off and the returns from our wagers can loom larger. I found three teams with some asymmetry worth exploiting.
Here are a few NFL playoff make/miss wagers that I like right now:
The Rams have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, and yet I am interested in their market to miss the playoffs entirely. So, what gives?
Among NFL teams, Los Angeles is one where injury risk looms the largest. A 37-year old Matthew Stafford came into last season with serious concerns about his back injuries, sitting out most of training camp and all of preseason, while getting multiple pain injections into his spine. While Stafford went on to nullify those concerns — playing in all 17 games and winning MVP — it doesn't change the fact that he's now a year older and still has a heightened injury possibility compared to other QBs. If Stafford got hurt, the Rams would have to rely on rookie first-round pick QB Ty Simpson.
#wagers
7 hours ago
