Vladimir Putin's troubles are adding up. His public denials notwithstanding, the war in Ukraine and economy at home are heading in the wrong direction.
His implied social contract with his subjects — you support me in this war and I will shield you from its consequences — is beginning to fray. An ****** ault on a NATO member state, followed by a nuclear ultimatum to end the war on Moscow's terms, debasing the alliance in the process, is looking like an increasingly attractive option.
Four factors are forcing Putin's hand.
After an estimated 1.2. million Russian dead and wounded, at around 35,000 average monthly casualties, the "special military operation" has turned into an endless war of attrition he cannot win and cannot afford to lose. Russia's key advantage over Ukraine — cannon fodder — has become all but irrelevant. Throwing 300,000 more men into the trenches by ordering another "partial mobilization," as even the militaristic Russian "Z" bloggers warn, will only result in the draftees' dying without altering "the nature of the war." A "technological breakthrough" is needed, the bloggers declare, to counter Ukrainian drones.
But despite Putin's promises, none appears on the horizon.