2 hours ago
The 2020s will go down in history as one of the best times to be a stock market investor. After a brief dip in 2022, the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has soared by an average of roughly 21% per year -- double its 100-year average annual return of 10%.
That said, history shows us that significant drawdowns often follow periods of unusually elevated stock market gains as the market reverts to its long-running mean. Let's discuss some of the challenges facing this bull market to try to figure out what might come next.
Missed AI's "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our ******* ysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
By now, most investors have probably heard about the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. This metric compares the price of the S&P 500 with its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade. The long time frame smooths out short-term fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the market's value relative to historical norms.
Right now, the CAPE ratio stands at 40.5, which is well above its average of 17.4. The other two major peaks occurred before the Great Depression in 1929 and during the dot-com bubble in 1999, when it hit its all-time high of 44.19. Both milestones were followed by substantial declines in equity prices over the subsequent years as the speculative bubbles deflated.
#missed #Stock #long #investors
That said, history shows us that significant drawdowns often follow periods of unusually elevated stock market gains as the market reverts to its long-running mean. Let's discuss some of the challenges facing this bull market to try to figure out what might come next.
Missed AI's "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our ******* ysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
By now, most investors have probably heard about the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. This metric compares the price of the S&P 500 with its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade. The long time frame smooths out short-term fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the market's value relative to historical norms.
Right now, the CAPE ratio stands at 40.5, which is well above its average of 17.4. The other two major peaks occurred before the Great Depression in 1929 and during the dot-com bubble in 1999, when it hit its all-time high of 44.19. Both milestones were followed by substantial declines in equity prices over the subsequent years as the speculative bubbles deflated.
#missed #Stock #long #investors
