Apollo Global Management warned Wednesday that credit default swaps on hyperscaler debt are pricing in more risk. Chief economist Torsten Slok tied the shift to weakening credit fundamentals rather than routine bond-dealer hedging.
Hyperscalers are the cloud computing giants, including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, that run the infrastructure behind the AI boom. They face a credit default swap (CDS) gap against bank debt, widened to about 60 basis points since October 2025.
Slok made the case in a Wednesday note reported by CNBC.
"What the market is repricing is hyperscaler credit fundamentals, namely a debt-financed AI capex cycle with rising leverage, negative free cash flow and uncertain payback on depreciating ****** ets."
Dan Alpert, founding managing partner of Westwood Capital, compared the setup to the run-up to the 2008 mortgage crisis. He said banks have since built far bigger equity buffers and are more diversified than they were then.
#slok
Hyperscalers are the cloud computing giants, including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, that run the infrastructure behind the AI boom. They face a credit default swap (CDS) gap against bank debt, widened to about 60 basis points since October 2025.
Slok made the case in a Wednesday note reported by CNBC.
"What the market is repricing is hyperscaler credit fundamentals, namely a debt-financed AI capex cycle with rising leverage, negative free cash flow and uncertain payback on depreciating ****** ets."
Dan Alpert, founding managing partner of Westwood Capital, compared the setup to the run-up to the 2008 mortgage crisis. He said banks have since built far bigger equity buffers and are more diversified than they were then.
#slok
1 day ago
