Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 56% over the past year, moving from $722.65 to $1,123.91. Before that run the company was doing something strange. It was deliberately selling less medicine than people wanted to buy, and it kept saying so out loud.
In early February 2025 the CEO said the capacity Lilly had already built was not enough to meet global demand, and that the company was still gating promotion and gating launches around the world. That is a company telling you its reported revenue understates what its products could sell.
The build was landing. Lilly produced more than 1.6 times as many salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 as it had made in the first half of 2024. The rationed business was already lucrative: trailing-twelve-month operating margin as of fiscal Q2 2025 ran at 42.1%, against its own three-year average of 32.7%. A business earning that much with the tap half closed has an obvious next chapter.
Four weeks before the run began, the CFO was specific about where. Commercial activity behind the recent launches in Brazil, China, India, and Mexico was being kept deliberately measured, so that demand would not outrun supply.
Then look at where the growth landed a year later. In the second quarter of 2026, China revenue grew 93% in constant currency, and rest-of-world revenue grew 136% in constant currency, driven by Mounjaro, primarily in Latin America and Asia. China is on both lists; Latin America and Asia cover the rest. The volume was waiting.
#year #half
In early February 2025 the CEO said the capacity Lilly had already built was not enough to meet global demand, and that the company was still gating promotion and gating launches around the world. That is a company telling you its reported revenue understates what its products could sell.
The build was landing. Lilly produced more than 1.6 times as many salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 as it had made in the first half of 2024. The rationed business was already lucrative: trailing-twelve-month operating margin as of fiscal Q2 2025 ran at 42.1%, against its own three-year average of 32.7%. A business earning that much with the tap half closed has an obvious next chapter.
Four weeks before the run began, the CFO was specific about where. Commercial activity behind the recent launches in Brazil, China, India, and Mexico was being kept deliberately measured, so that demand would not outrun supply.
Then look at where the growth landed a year later. In the second quarter of 2026, China revenue grew 93% in constant currency, and rest-of-world revenue grew 136% in constant currency, driven by Mounjaro, primarily in Latin America and Asia. China is on both lists; Latin America and Asia cover the rest. The volume was waiting.
#year #half
7 hours ago
