Myles Garrett is coming off a historic season, yet a new ESPN projection for the Los Angeles Rams star has produced one of the more surprising predictions ahead of 2026. The elite pass rusher is forecast to finish well below the sack total that established him as the NFL's most dominant quarterback hunter last season.
Garrett recorded 23 sacks in 2025, setting the league's single-season record and delivering the kind of campaign few defensive players can match. His performance placed him at the center of the NFL's defensive conversation, making his projected total for the upcoming season particularly difficult to overlook.
Sep 7, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) is introduced before a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-Imagn Images
The statistical forecast has Garrett finishing fifth among the league's pass rushers with a projected average of 10.1 sacks. Four players are expected to finish ahead of him, including Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons, Will Anderson Jr. and Nik Bonitto, despite Garrett entering the season as the reigning record holder.
Several factors contributed to the lower projection. Garrett is now 30 years old, while the Rams relied on one of the NFL's lowest blitz rates last season, reducing some of the opportunities that can create favorable one-on-one matchups for edge rushers.
#defensive #projection
Garrett recorded 23 sacks in 2025, setting the league's single-season record and delivering the kind of campaign few defensive players can match. His performance placed him at the center of the NFL's defensive conversation, making his projected total for the upcoming season particularly difficult to overlook.
Sep 7, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) is introduced before a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-Imagn Images
The statistical forecast has Garrett finishing fifth among the league's pass rushers with a projected average of 10.1 sacks. Four players are expected to finish ahead of him, including Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons, Will Anderson Jr. and Nik Bonitto, despite Garrett entering the season as the reigning record holder.
Several factors contributed to the lower projection. Garrett is now 30 years old, while the Rams relied on one of the NFL's lowest blitz rates last season, reducing some of the opportunities that can create favorable one-on-one matchups for edge rushers.
#defensive #projection
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