It would be easy to ****** ume that Caitlin Clark's recent play — ranking top three in both points and ****** ists per game — would place the Indiana Fever superstar toward the top of the WNBA MVP race, but the betting world captures why that is simply not the case.
Las Vegas Aces superstar A'ja Wilson is still an overwhelming favorite at sportsbooks (-1200 odds at DraftKings) and prediction markets (88 percent at Kalshi) to capture her third straight MVP and record fifth overall. Minnesota Lynx rookie Olivia Miles is second at +800 and 8 percent, followed by Clark at 35-to-1 and 4 percent, then Clark's teammate Kelsey Mitchell at 40-to-1 and 1 percent.
We know voters take into account a candidate's relative value to their team, but how can that be actually quantified? The Athletic attempted this by asking betting experts to gauge each candidate's impact against the point spread, if their team were favored by five points on a neutral court before accounting for their absence.
"It's similar to the quarterbacks, and [their] point-spread adjustments are based on the [drop-off between them and the] backup. A lot of this is in relation to what's left remaining on the team," longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker and Circa Sports senior risk manager Jeff Sherman told The Athletic. "That's where Wilson stands out."
Wilson received the highest distinction from each expert interviewed but the value ranged from four to eight points. They also all agreed Wilson's defense separates her, hence why she also is the second favorite to win her fourth Defensive Player of the Year award (+160).
#wilson
Las Vegas Aces superstar A'ja Wilson is still an overwhelming favorite at sportsbooks (-1200 odds at DraftKings) and prediction markets (88 percent at Kalshi) to capture her third straight MVP and record fifth overall. Minnesota Lynx rookie Olivia Miles is second at +800 and 8 percent, followed by Clark at 35-to-1 and 4 percent, then Clark's teammate Kelsey Mitchell at 40-to-1 and 1 percent.
We know voters take into account a candidate's relative value to their team, but how can that be actually quantified? The Athletic attempted this by asking betting experts to gauge each candidate's impact against the point spread, if their team were favored by five points on a neutral court before accounting for their absence.
"It's similar to the quarterbacks, and [their] point-spread adjustments are based on the [drop-off between them and the] backup. A lot of this is in relation to what's left remaining on the team," longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker and Circa Sports senior risk manager Jeff Sherman told The Athletic. "That's where Wilson stands out."
Wilson received the highest distinction from each expert interviewed but the value ranged from four to eight points. They also all agreed Wilson's defense separates her, hence why she also is the second favorite to win her fourth Defensive Player of the Year award (+160).
#wilson
7 hours ago
