One of the commenters on the Daulton Varsho lab asked if I would do a lab on Trevor Larnach. Usually, I don't pay much attention to what hasn't been done, but multiple reports have now indicated that a deal was in place to send Bryan Abreu to the Twins in exchange for Larnach. According to all of those sources, Jim Crane nixed the deal. Before I dive into numbers, we should probably look at the differences between the two deals.
Everyone has opined about the Varsho deal. The primary criticism is that you traded away a pitcher with years of control (can become a free agent following the 2029 season) for a player with no control beyond this season. However, Arrighetti had minimal present value. He was 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, but virtually all of those wins came in a brilliant first month that saw him win the Pitcher of the Month Award. He was not currently in the Astros rotation and some would argue that he wouldn't likely rejoin it unless there were major injuries. So, this was a classic get something now for someone that could help in the future kind of deal.
As much as I have enjoyed covering performance in spurts lately, the overall numbers on Arrighetti tell a story. He is 15-23 with a 4.66 ERA. He had a really good month in 2024 and a really good month this season. Take those two months away and he is a 5.00 ERA pitcher. Naturally, the Blue Jays are thinking but what if he can become THAT pitcher again? The deal makes sense for them because they aren't going anywhere this season anyway, so why not trade for a lottery ticket?
The Larnach trade is different because you would have traded a pitcher that has an ERA near 2.00 since May 1st. Abreu is useful to you right now and certainly has been lately. The fact that the trade was vetoed by ownership means one of two things (both can be true at the same time). First, Jim Crane has little confidence in Dana Brown, so he is micromanaging him through the end of his contract. Secondly, Crane might actually be interested in re-signing Abreu and that wouldn't happen if he is dealt.
Both of those statements deserves some additional focus, but I will save that for another piece. In this piece, we will look at what Brown was thinking and whether there was some upside there. Larnach has only been a regular for three seasons, so we will go back three years instead of five like we did for Varsho. However, we are looking at the same numbers as yesterday's piece except I will jettison bases per out for now.
#abreu #numbers
Everyone has opined about the Varsho deal. The primary criticism is that you traded away a pitcher with years of control (can become a free agent following the 2029 season) for a player with no control beyond this season. However, Arrighetti had minimal present value. He was 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, but virtually all of those wins came in a brilliant first month that saw him win the Pitcher of the Month Award. He was not currently in the Astros rotation and some would argue that he wouldn't likely rejoin it unless there were major injuries. So, this was a classic get something now for someone that could help in the future kind of deal.
As much as I have enjoyed covering performance in spurts lately, the overall numbers on Arrighetti tell a story. He is 15-23 with a 4.66 ERA. He had a really good month in 2024 and a really good month this season. Take those two months away and he is a 5.00 ERA pitcher. Naturally, the Blue Jays are thinking but what if he can become THAT pitcher again? The deal makes sense for them because they aren't going anywhere this season anyway, so why not trade for a lottery ticket?
The Larnach trade is different because you would have traded a pitcher that has an ERA near 2.00 since May 1st. Abreu is useful to you right now and certainly has been lately. The fact that the trade was vetoed by ownership means one of two things (both can be true at the same time). First, Jim Crane has little confidence in Dana Brown, so he is micromanaging him through the end of his contract. Secondly, Crane might actually be interested in re-signing Abreu and that wouldn't happen if he is dealt.
Both of those statements deserves some additional focus, but I will save that for another piece. In this piece, we will look at what Brown was thinking and whether there was some upside there. Larnach has only been a regular for three seasons, so we will go back three years instead of five like we did for Varsho. However, we are looking at the same numbers as yesterday's piece except I will jettison bases per out for now.
#abreu #numbers
2 months ago
