The attraction to make short-term market bets is real. When you think what everyone knows is wrong, it's tempting to place a bet. And while Kalshi and Polymarket may be better venues for "someone is wrong on the internet" proof-trading, ETFs offer clean, efficient ways to lose your money too.
Or maybe -- maybe -- make some.
On a recent episode of ETF Zoo, Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas made the point that some speculators lately had been getting these market-timing calls right. He later ran the numbers on ProShares UltraPro QQQ, the 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF.
This toe-dip into matching flows with performance got me thinking about "the other big trade" of the last year or so that's not AI: Energy. That's where all the headlines about insider trading have been, so taking the cue from Eric, I had to figure out: have ETF investors been playing the energy trade this well?
Betting on energy is the least secret, least insider trade in the world right now—unless you have access to the Oval, like some traders apparently do. There should be no edge in it. Short-term trading here is simply a bet that you know something the most important commodity market in the world doesn't know (or, you have better hunch.) Historically, this is a bad idea. That was my prior: disaster.
#market #short #make
Or maybe -- maybe -- make some.
On a recent episode of ETF Zoo, Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas made the point that some speculators lately had been getting these market-timing calls right. He later ran the numbers on ProShares UltraPro QQQ, the 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF.
This toe-dip into matching flows with performance got me thinking about "the other big trade" of the last year or so that's not AI: Energy. That's where all the headlines about insider trading have been, so taking the cue from Eric, I had to figure out: have ETF investors been playing the energy trade this well?
Betting on energy is the least secret, least insider trade in the world right now—unless you have access to the Oval, like some traders apparently do. There should be no edge in it. Short-term trading here is simply a bet that you know something the most important commodity market in the world doesn't know (or, you have better hunch.) Historically, this is a bad idea. That was my prior: disaster.
#market #short #make
3 months ago
