Dell Technologies (DELL) stock more than quadrupled over the past year, a 323% gain, against about 18% for the S&P 500, and even Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), up 130.6%, finished far behind. Management had described most of the drivers before the run began: customers sitting on old servers, AI orders that had outrun shipments earlier in the year, and costs falling while sales rose. Those signs could not tell you how far the stock would go.
What Was Dell Seeing In Its Customers' Data Centers?
In February 2025, management said customers still ran a very large base of Dell's 13th and 14th generation servers, ready to be replaced. AI demand, already under discussion then, was exceptionally strong by May 2025, with $12.1 billion of AI server orders in fiscal Q1 2026, more than Dell's AI server shipments for all of fiscal 2025.
In August 2025, management said over 70% of its installed base was running on 14th generation servers or older, and that one 17th generation server could replace six or seven old ones. The results were uneven. In fiscal Q2 2026, traditional server revenue rose again and international demand grew, but demand in North America, its most profitable region, was weak.
Why Were Dell's Costs Falling While Its Sales Rose?

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