Imagine you’re drafting tomorrow in a 12-team PPR league. Who would be the top three bust candidates to fade in the fourth round? The following is based on current average draft positions (ADPs).
I don’t see the fascination with Colston Loveland, whose ADP is overall-42 / TE3. It’s as if everyone got the memo while I was on vacation. Except I don’t take fantasy vacations. So what’s happening?
As I’ve pointed out before, the fantasy market tends to overweight players who finished the previous season strongly. Sure enough, Loveland racked up insanely high numbers in his final four contests, posting a combined 28-378-2 receiving line. How did he do it? By getting 48 targets. Rome Odunze missed two of those games and played a relatively minor role in the other two. Meanwhile, Luther Burden took a firm backseat in three of those games.
Loveland dominated for reasons that cannot be easily replicated. A health Burden and Odunze will play larger roles than we saw late last season. Loveland is a fantastic young talent, and he also cannot be expected to get 12 targets per game or even 10. Presumably, he’ll finish among the top seven TEs, but a near-elite finish that warrants a fourth-round pick? I’m not seeing it.
Terry McLaurin is another risky selection. His overall-45 / WR22 ADP ****** umes the nearly 31-year-old can return to his 2024 form, when he needed 13 touchdowns to finish as the WR16 in points per game. Even with nine TDs that season -- if his receptions and yards had remained the same -- he would have been the WR23. Advancing age has lowered his ceiling to a new low.
I don’t see the fascination with Colston Loveland, whose ADP is overall-42 / TE3. It’s as if everyone got the memo while I was on vacation. Except I don’t take fantasy vacations. So what’s happening?
As I’ve pointed out before, the fantasy market tends to overweight players who finished the previous season strongly. Sure enough, Loveland racked up insanely high numbers in his final four contests, posting a combined 28-378-2 receiving line. How did he do it? By getting 48 targets. Rome Odunze missed two of those games and played a relatively minor role in the other two. Meanwhile, Luther Burden took a firm backseat in three of those games.
Loveland dominated for reasons that cannot be easily replicated. A health Burden and Odunze will play larger roles than we saw late last season. Loveland is a fantastic young talent, and he also cannot be expected to get 12 targets per game or even 10. Presumably, he’ll finish among the top seven TEs, but a near-elite finish that warrants a fourth-round pick? I’m not seeing it.
Terry McLaurin is another risky selection. His overall-45 / WR22 ADP ****** umes the nearly 31-year-old can return to his 2024 form, when he needed 13 touchdowns to finish as the WR16 in points per game. Even with nine TDs that season -- if his receptions and yards had remained the same -- he would have been the WR23. Advancing age has lowered his ceiling to a new low.
20 hours ago
